影响外汇市场的经济因素

  Investopedia Staff  2016年6月28日

每天来自全球各地的参与者进行的数以万亿计的交易使外汇市场成为了真正的全球市场。外汇市场交易事实上已经成为了一个全球化活动，这意味着宏观经济事件在外汇市场中扮演的角色比以前任何时候都更加重要。下面将介绍一些新的外汇市场参与者需要注意的经济趋势和事件。

宏观经济在外汇市场中扮演的角色

外汇市场基本上是由总体经济事件驱动的，这些经济事件会影响交易者决定，而交易者将会在某些特定时间决定货币的价值。一个国家经济的健康程度是决定其货币价值的一个重要因素。然而整体经济健康程度受可能每天都发生变化的大量经济事件和信息影响，使得外汇市场也可能随时发生变化。让我们来详细讨论下这些影响经济现状和推动货币价值变化的因素。

资本市场

全球资本市场也许是经济健康与否的最明显指标，因为股票和债券市场是全球最受人关注的市场。因为有不间断的媒体报道和关于交易公司、机构以及国有企业的即时信息，资本市场很少漏掉一些公开信息。一个国家的股价大幅度上涨或者下跌将很清楚的表明投资者已经改变对该国未来经济前景的看法。

同样的，许多经济体是由一些经济板块驱动的，例如加拿大严重依赖大宗商品市场。在这种情况下，加元变得与原油和金属等大宗产品的走势息息相关。原油价格上涨可能导致加元相对于其他货币升值。大宗商品交易者和外汇交易者一样，都很依赖经济数据进行交易，因此在很多情况下，一份相同的经济数据会对这两个市场都产生直接影响。

此外，债券市场也对外汇市场有重大影响，因为固定收益证券和货币都严重依赖利率。债券波动是货币波动的首要影响因素，也就是说债券收益率的变化会直接影响货币价值。因为两个市场的关系非常密切，了解政府债券是如何定价的对成为一个优秀的交易员非常重要。

国际贸易

另一个重要因素是国家间的贸易水平和趋势。贸易水平表明国家间对商品的相对需求。一个国家的商品在国际市场的需求量大通常会使其货币升值。例如，为了购买澳大利亚商品，买家必须把其货币转换成澳元。澳元需求的增加会使其升值。

贸易顺差或者逆差体现了一个国家在国际贸易中的竞争力。带有巨大贸易逆差的国家是国际贸易中的净买家（或者说进口商），大量的进口导致他们的货币被更多的出售以购买其他国家的货币。这种情况会对进口国家的货币价值有消极影响。

政治状况

一个国家的政治格局在其经济前景中占重要地位，因此将会影响其货币的价值。外汇交易员不断观察政治新闻以判断将会发生什么，如果有事件发生，就会被考虑到经济前景中。这其中包括增加政府开支和对某个部门或者行业加强限制等措施。

大选永远是货币市场的一个主要事件，因为利率往往会更青睐于财政上更加复杂的政党上台。英国退欧公投就是一个很好的例子，当英国投票决定离开欧盟时对英镑产生了重大影响。在公投之后英镑价值降到了1985年以来的最低点，因为英国经济前景充满了不确定性。

财务和货币政策是政府做出经济决定的重要因素。央行做出的影响利率的决定受到外汇市场的密切关注。

经济数据

经济报告对外汇交易员非常重要。获取一份经济报告日历对了解这个节奏超快的市场是至关重要的。GDP可能是最明显的经济报告，因为它是一个国家经济表现和强度的基本形式。GDP统计一个国家产品和服务的总产出。然而要记住的一个关键是GDP是一个落后指标，这意味着她报告的事件和趋势已经发生。

通胀也是一个非常重要的指标，因为它是价格水平上涨和购买力下降的信号。然而，通胀是一把双刃剑，因为许多人把其使货币贬值的能力归功于降低购买力。另一方面，它也可能导致货币升值，因为央行可能为了达到通胀增长水平而提高利率。通胀是一个备受经济学家争议的话题，并且它对货币的影响很难简单描述。

例如就业水平、零售业、制造业指数和产能利用等其他报告也对预测一个经济体和货币的强度非常重要。

总结

外汇市场最终是由经济因素，也就是反映一个国家经济强度的指标驱动的。一个国家的经济前景是其货币价值的最重要决定因素，因此了解这些因素会帮助你跟上竞争激烈并且快速发展的外汇市场的节奏。

Economic Factors That Affect The Forex Market

By Investopedia Staff | Updated June 28, 2016 — 9:01 AM EDT

With buyers and sellers from all corners of the globe participating in trillions of dollars of trades each day, forex is a true global marketplace. The fact that foreign exchange trading has become such a globalized activity means that macroeconomic events play an even greater role in forex than ever before. Here some economic trends and events that those new to forex should be aware of.

The Role of Macroeconomics in Forex
The forex market is primarily driven by overarching macroeconomic factors that influence the decisions of the traders who ultimately decide the value of a currency at any given point in time. The economic health of a nation's economy is an important factor in the value of its currency. Overall economic health, however, is shaped by numerous economic events and information that may change on a daily basis, contributing to the 24/7 nature of the international foreign exchange market. Let's take a closer look at some of the factors that influence an economy's standing and drive changes in the value of its currency.

Capital Markets
The global capital markets are perhaps the most visible indicators of an economy's health, while stock and bond markets are the most noticeable markets in the world. With constant media coverage and up-to-the-second information on the dealings of corporations, institutions and government entities, there is not much public information that the capital markets miss. A wide rally or sell-off of securities originating from one country or another should be a clear signal that the future outlook (short term or long term) for that economy has changed in investors' eyes.

Similarly, many economies are sector driven, such as Canada's heavily commodity-based market. In this case, the Canadian dollar is heavily correlated to the movements of commodities such as crude oil and metals. A rally in oil prices would likely lead to the appreciation of the loonie relative to other currencies. Commodity traders, like forex traders, rely heavily on economic data for their trades, so in many cases the same economic data will have a direct affect on both markets.

Moreover, the bond markets are critical to what is happening in the forex market, since both fixed income securities and currencies rely heavily on interest rates. Movements in Treasuries are a first level factor in movements in currencies, meaning that a change in yields will directly affect currency values. Because of how closely tied the two markets are, it is important to understand how bonds - government bonds especially - are valued in order to excel as a forex trader.

International Trade
Another key factor is balance of trade levels and trends between nations. The trade levels between nations serve as a proxy for the relative demand of goods from a nation. A nation with goods or services that are in high demand internationally will typically see an appreciation of its currency. For example, in order to purchase goods from Australia, buyers must convert their currency into Australian dollars (AUD) to make the purchase. The increased demand for the AUD will put upward pressure on it.

Trade surpluses and deficits exemplify a nation's competitive standing in international trade. Countries with a large trade deficit are net buyers/importers of international goods, resulting in more of their currency being sold to purchase other nations' currencies in order to pay for the international goods. This type of situation is likely to have a negative impact on the value of an importing country's currency.

Political Conditions
The political landscape of a nation plays a major role in the economic outlook for that country and, consequently, the perceived value of its currency. Forex traders are constantly monitoring political news and events to gauge what moves, if any, a country's government may take in the economy. These can include measures from increasing government spending to tightening restrictions on a particular sector or industry.

An upcoming election is always a major event for currency markets, as exchange rates will often react more favorably to parties with fiscally responsible platforms and governments willing to pursue economic growth. A good example is the Brexit vote, which had a major impact on the British pound (GBP) when the UK voted to leave the EU. The currency reached its lowest levels since 1985 after the vote because the UK's economical prospects were suddenly highly uncertain.

The fiscal and monetary policies of any government are the most important factors in its economic decision making. Central bank decisions that impact interest rates are keenly watched by the forex market for any changes in key rates or future outlooks.

Economic Releases
Economic reports are the backbone of a forex trader's playbook. Maintaining an economic report calendar is crucial to staying current in this ultra-fast paced marketplace. GDP may be the most obvious economic report, as it is the baseline of a country's economic performance and strength. GDP measures the total output of goods and services produced within an economy. One key thing to remember, however, is that GDP is a lagging indicator, meaning that it reports on events and trends that have already occurred.

Inflation is also a very important indicator as it sends a signal of increasing price levels and falling purchasing power. However, inflation is a double-edged sword, as many view it as placing downward pressure on a currency due to retreating purchasing power. On the other hand, it can also lead to currency appreciation as it may force central bankers to increase rates in order to curb rising inflation levels. Inflation is a hotly contested issue amongst economists and its effects on currencies is never black or white.

Other reports such as employment levels, retail sales, manufacturing indexes and capacity utilization also carry important information on the current and forecasted strength of an economy and its currency.

Bottom Line
The forex market is ultimately driven by economic factors that, in turn, are indicators of a country's economic strength. The economic outlook for a country is the most important determinant of its currency's value, so knowing the factors and indicators to watch will help you keep pace in the competitive and fast-moving world of forex.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/11/economic-factors-affecting-forex.asp