美联储：九月加息在议 场中无人相信

两位美联储官员在访亚期间纷纷向金融市场表示了九月加息的强大信心。但美国本地的投资者对此却不以为然。

纽约德意志银行证券有限公司的首席美国经济学家Joseph LaVorgna指出：“市场参与者们都不相信美联储，因为美联储的官员们一直这样说。”

美联储官员Kaplan 称，九月加息仍然“有很多内容”在议。

彭博社在中国对达拉斯联储主席Rob Kaplan进行了采访，他说九月加息“仍有很多内容正在讨论中”。

纽约联储主席William Dudley在印度尼西亚发表了讲话，他认为美联储加息绝对会赶在总统选举之前。很多权威人士和市场参与者认为，美联储在努力表现得不关心政治，他们不打算在总统选举期间改变利率。总统选举日期为11月8日。

两位美联储官员在周一同时强调，从现在到9月21日、22日之间的数据是所有决策的关键。

在Kaplan和Dudley发表讲话之后，供应管理协会发布了七月制造业指数，指数由六月的53.2跌至52.6，跌幅不大。

资本经济公司经济学家Alex Holmes表示，该数据会减轻市场对经济崩盘的恐惧。

上周发布的第二季度国内生产总值数据疲软，引发了市场对经济的担忧，加重了对九月加息的疑虑。

报告显示，在过去的三个季度中，经济增长仅有1%，“因此九月加息的几率更加渺茫了。”PNC金融集团首席经济学家Stuart Hoffman说。

LaVorgna说：“在Dudley和Kaplan的演讲以及ISM数据发布之后，投资者们认为九月加息的可能性为18%。”

而十二月加息的可能性则略高一些，市场认为会略高于三分之一。

直到2017年9月，加息的可能性才会超过50%。

大西洋私人信托财富管理公司的首席投资官David Donabedian 指出：“美联储已经尝到了依靠数据的苦果。”

LaVorgna称美联储试图突出GDP中的正面数据，告诉大家情况并没有那么糟。

尽管他们对此表示抗议，数据“只是又一个让人等待的理由”。

怎样才能改变市场的自满情绪呢？

LaVorgna说，只有耶伦的讲话能够做到。

美联储主席耶伦计划在8月26日，怀俄明州杰克逊小镇发表讲话。

Fed’s Dudley, Kaplan fail to convince market Sept. rate hike is ‘on the table’

A pair of Federal Reserve officials, on separate visits to Asia, suggested overnight that the financial markets are too complacent about a September rate hike. However, investors back in the U.S. basically ignored the admonishments.

“The market doesn’t believe the Fed, it hasn’t been listening for a while,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York.

Fed’s Kaplan Says September Rate Rise Still ‘Very Much’ on Table.

In a Bloomberg television interview from China, Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan said a September rate hike “is very much on the table.”

New York Fed President William Dudley, in a speech in Indonesia, said he could definitely see the Fed raising interest rates even before the election. Many pundits and market participants have opined that the Fed, in an effort to appear apolitical, tends not to change rates during a presidential election. The presidential election is set for Nov. 8.

See: Fed’s Dudley warns it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year

On Monday, both officials stressed data between now and Sept. 20-21 will be key to any decision.

After Kaplan and Dudley spoke, the Institute for Supply Management reported that its manufacturing index slipped only slightly to 52.6 in July from 53.2 in the prior month.

Alex Holmes, an economist for Capital Economics, said the data should ease fears that the economy is heading for a serious downturn.

The weak second-quarter gross domestic product report released late last week sparked concerns about the economy and bolstered doubts about a September move.

The report, which showed the economy has only grown at a 1% rate over the last three quarters, “makes a September increase in the fed-funds rate even less likely,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Group.

Read: Q2 GDP closes door on Fed September rate hike

In the wake of Dudley and Kaplan’s speech and the ISM data, investors are pricing in a 18% chance of rate hike in September, LaVorgna said.

For December, the market views the chance of a rate hike at a little more than one of three.

It is not until September 2017 that the probability of a rate hike is over 50%.

“The Fed leaned the pain of becoming data dependent,” said David Donabedian,chief investment officer of Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management.

LaVorgna said the Fed will try to accentuate the positive in the GDP data and “highlight pockets that weren’t horrible.”

But despite their protestations, the data “is just another reason to wait.”

What would it take to change the market’s complacency?

Only a speech by Yellen, LaVorgna said.

The Fed Chairwoman is scheduled to speak on Aug. 26 from Jackson Hole, Wyo.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-dudley-kaplan-fail-to-convince-market-sept-rate-hike-is-on-the-table-2016-08-01