为什么黄金不是美元的对冲

美国著名独立投资者、加特曼通讯(The Gartman Letter)出版人丹尼斯-加特曼(Dennis Gartman)表示黄金是一种热点投资，但是使用美元购买黄金与使用日元和欧元购买黄金完全不是一回事。加特曼强调中央银行使用不同数量货币刺激措施对货币价值的影响。

央行政策

在金融危机之后的几年中，全球范围的中央银行都使用宽松货币政策创造就业机会、促进通胀达到理想水平和改善企业的整体经营环境。

起初，这些政策包含了降低基准利率接近于零和购买债券计划。中央银行希望通过这些措施促使利率下降并通过债务资产购买增加货币供应。政策制定者希望通过把更多的钱放到大众手中刺激消费和投资的增长。

美国经济比许多其他国家的经济恢复的更快，美联储在2014年10月宣布将不再购买固定收益资产。2015年12月，美联储宣布将进行2006年以来的首次基准利率提升。

欧洲央行和日本央行则采取了不同的方式，他们决定推出更多的刺激措施以稳定经济环境。这两家央行在美国央行停止之后继续进行债务资产购买，并且他们还推出了负利率政策，这在当时是非常让人意外的。

由于欧洲央行和日本央行推出了负利率政策，他们的货币开始贬值。由于汇率波动，黄金收益经历了大幅度上涨，这些上涨的浮动取决于使用美元、欧元还是日元等计价方式的不同。加特曼表示黄金本身就是货币，而且一直以来都受到人们青睐。

货币的重要性

在2014年初和2016年7月期间，欧元计价黄金的表现比日元和美元计价的黄金表现要好得多。在这段时期，用欧元计价的黄金上涨了40%，而用日元和美元计价的则分别只上涨8.4%和14%。

因此，使用欧元计价的黄金经历了两年的牛市，而用美元计价的黄金则只经历了六个月的上涨。针对这种情况，加特曼建议投资者使用贬值几率最大的法定货币购买黄金。

这将有很多选择，加特曼列出了一系列的中央银行，包括俄罗斯央行、中国央行和巴西央行，这些央行都采取过增加货币供应的措施。加特曼预测，由于通胀还维持在较低的水平，这些央行将继续这些措施。

总结

许多人青睐黄金作为投资的吸引力，并且黄金确实也提供过巨大回报。加特曼断言，如果投资者认为世界各地的央行会继续注入流动性增加货币供应，他们可能会希望持有多种货币计价的黄金。

然而，如果投资者希望美联储使用比欧洲央行和日本央行更加保守的货币政策，他们将有更大的理由持有欧元或者日元而不是美元计价的黄金。此外，他们也可以利用从本文得到的信息应用到那些可能使用宽松货币政策的其他货币上，例如俄罗斯卢布和巴西雷亚尔。

Why Gold Is Not a Hedge Against the Dollar

By Charles Bovaird | August 31, 2016 — 10:00 AM EDT

Dennis Gartman, a well-known commodities trader who publishes The Gartman Letter, considers gold to be a compelling investment, but using the U.S. dollar to buy the precious metal is a rather different matter than purchasing it with the yen or euro. Gartman emphasizes the varying amount of monetary stimulus used by central banks and the consequent impact on currency values.

Central Bank Policy

In the years following the financial crisis, central banks across the world used very liberal monetary policy in an effort to create jobs, keep inflation at a desirable level and improve business conditions overall.

At first, these policies included slashing benchmark interest rates close to zero and embarking on bond-buying programs. With these measures, central banks hoped to place downward pressure on interest rates and expand the money supply through asset purchases. By putting more money in people’s hands, policymakers hoped to spur more robust consumption and investment.

The U.S. economy has recovered more quickly than many others, and the Fed announced in October 2014 that it would no longer purchase fixed-income assets. In December 2015, the central bank announced that it planned to hike benchmark interest rates for the first time since 2006.

The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) took a different approach, deciding to harness more stimulus in an effort to shore up economic conditions. The two financial institutions continued to leverage asset purchase programs after the United States stopped, and they have also dabbled in negative interest rate programs, which were experimental at the time.

Because the ECB and BOJ took this liberal approach toward monetary policies, their currencies depreciated. As a result of these foreign exchange fluctuations, gold has experienced sharply different returns, depending on whether those gains are measured in U.S. dollars, euros or the yen. Gold is a currency itself, one that man has loved for some time, Gartman argues.

The Importance of Currencies

Between early 2014 and July 2016, gold has enjoyed far better performance when measured in the euro than it has in terms of the yen and U.S. dollar. During this time, gold measured in the euro surged 40%, while gold in terms of yen and the U.S. dollar rose 8.4% and 14%, respectively.

Because of this, gold, as measured by the euro, enjoyed a bull market for two and a half years, while the precious metal had been rising for six months in terms of the U.S. dollar. Against this backdrop, Gartman suggests that investors purchase gold denominated in fiat currencies with the greatest chances of depreciating.

There may be many to choose from; Gartman lists a wide range of central banks – including the Reserve Bank of Russia, the People's Bank of China and the Central Bank of Brazil – that were all taking action to increase their money supply. Gartman predicts that these financial institutions will use this approach for some time because inflation remains stubbornly low.

Summary

Many have touted gold’s appeal as an investment, and the precious metal has delivered compelling returns at many points. Investors might want to hold gold denominated in numerous currencies if they expect central banks around the world to keep injecting liquidity into the money supply, Gartman asserts.

However, if these investors expect the Fed to use more conservative monetary policy than the ECB and BOJ, they may have far greater reason to own gold denominated in the euro and yen than in the U.S. dollar. In addition, they might take the lesson learned here and apply it to other currencies potentially impacted by an easy money policy, such as the Russian ruble or the Brazilian real.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/083116/why-gold-not-hedge-against-dollar.asp