Alan Farley 2016年9月2日
美元是全球流通量最大的货币，在其后面是欧元、日元和英镑。美元指数通过几何平均数的形式反映美元对欧元、日元、英镑、加元、瑞典克朗和瑞士法郎的相对价值，这些货币在计算中所占的比例分别为57.6%、13.6%、11.9%、9.1%、4.2%和3.6%。
外汇交易者通过货币对对美元相对强弱进行实时投资。虽然经纪商提供数十个相关货币对，大多数外汇交易者主要关注以下六个主要货币对：
欧元——EUR/USD
瑞士法郎——USD/CHF
日元——USD//JPY
英镑——GBP/USD
澳元——AUD/USD
加元——USD/CAD
美元在美国的交易时间是从周日晚上持续到周五下午，提供巨大的获利机会。然而，每天的交易量和价格波动可能出现巨大变化，非主要货币对的点差在平静时段加大而在活跃时段减小。尽管在任何时间都能开仓和平仓的能力是外汇交易的主要优势，但是大多数美元交易策略都适合活跃时段。
许多外汇交易者将所有精力都集中在EUR/USD货币对上，该货币对是全球市场最受欢迎和流动性最大的货币对。EUR/USD在全天的点差都非常小，而多重日内催化使其价格走势能保证在任何时段的买卖方向都有可交易趋势。传统交易策略在长短期波动中都能表现良好，包括摆动交易和通道交易。
美元价格催化剂
交易美元的最好时间是经济数据发布和全球股票、期权和期货交易所开盘时段。这些新闻之前的准备需要双方面调查，因为澳大利亚、亚洲和欧元区能使流行货币对产生相同的运动。美国经济数据对24小时周期的定价影响最大的原因如下：1.它对所有货币对产生影响；2.排名第二的中国经济前景的变化对全球产生了连锁反应。
此外，美元货币对很容易受到那些触发股票、货币和债券价格变化的经济和政治宏观事件影响。2015年8月中国对人民币的贬值就是一个完美的例子。而且自然灾害也能产生这中类型的影响，2011年日本海啸就对此做出了很好的诠释。
经济数据
美国经济数据发布通常是在上午东部时间8:30和10:00之间，那时将会产生非常巨大的交易量，有很大的几率主要货币对价格都会出现区间运动。日本和澳大利亚的经济数据发布美国东部时间4:30与9:30到10:00之间，将对USD/JPY和AUD/USD产生影响，但是来自欧洲的关注将很少，因为那时欧洲正处在午夜的睡梦中。尽管如此，这些时间段的外汇交易量也会剧烈上升。
欧元区经济数据影响美元与欧元、瑞士法郎和英镑的货币对，这些数据发布集中在美国东部时间的上午2:00和5:00之间。数据发布之前的60到30分钟和发布之后1到3个小时是交易上述货币对的高峰时间，因为这一趋势将会延续到美国交易日，使大西洋两岸的交易量都出现巨大增长。
美元和全球交易所时间
许多美元交易者的时间表大致与交易所时间相同，将他们的交易活动集中在法兰克福、东京、上海、香港、悉尼、纽约和芝加哥的股票、期货和期权交易所的营业时间。这种时间分布使美国东部海岸深夜时间的交易量剧增，这种趋势会持续一夜并延续到美国午饭时间，之后外汇交易量急剧下降。
然而，中央银行日程表会改变这种活动周期，全球交易者都会在下午2:00坐在电脑前等待美联储的利率决定和会议结果。其他央行决定的发布时间如下：
日本央行——美国东部时间上午12:00
澳大利亚联邦储备银行——美国东部时间上午12:30
英格兰银行——美国东部时间上午7:00
欧洲中央银行——美国东部时间上午7:45
日本、澳大利亚和欧元央行决定的发布时间都是在交易活跃时段，而美国联邦公开市场委员会的决定却是个例外，其报告发布的时间是欧洲的晚上并且是亚洲和澳大利亚的黄昏前。这给美国交易者提供了便利，因为太平洋和大西洋另一头的交易者通常需要牺牲睡梦等待美联储的决定。
总结
六个主要货币对为美元交易者提供大量的长短期交易机会。交易这些货币对最好的时间是美国和其他地方经济数据发布的前后、美国东部时间的深夜和午餐之间的时间。
These Are The Best Hours To Trade the U.S. Dollar (USD)
By Alan Farley | Updated September 2, 2016 — 1:56 PM EDT
The U.S. Dollar (USD) ranks as the most popular currency in the world, trailed by the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY) and British Pound Sterling (GBP). The U.S. Dollar Index provides a comprehensive snapshot of long- and short-term price action through a geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to the following currencies and weighting:
Euro (EUR) 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY) 13.6%
British Pound Sterling (GBP) 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK) 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF) 3.6%
Forex traders speculate on USD strength and weakness through currency pairs that establish comparative value in real time. Although brokers offer dozens of related crosses, the majority of clients focus their attention on the six most popular pairs:
Euro - EUR/USD
Swiss Franc - USD/CHF
Japanese Yen - USD//JPY
British Pound - GBP/USD
Australian Dollar - AUD/USD
Canadian Dollar - USD/CAD
USD trades continuously from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon in the United States, offering significant opportunities for profit. However, volume and volatility can fluctuate greatly in each 24-hour cycle, with spreads in the less popular pairs widening during quiet periods and narrowing during active periods. While the ability to open and close positions at any time marks a key forex benefit, most USD trading strategies unfold during active periods.
Many forex traders focus their full attention on the EUR/USD cross, the most popular and liquid currency market in the world. The cross maintains a tight spread throughout the 24-hour cycle, while multiple intraday catalysts ensure that price action will set up tradable trends in both direction and in all time frames. Long- and short-term swings also work extremely well with classic rangebound strategies, including swing trading and channel trading.
U.S. Dollar Price Catalysts
The best times to trade the U.S. dollar track the release of economic data as well as open hours at equity, options and futures exchanges around the world. Planning ahead for these releases requires two-sided research because catalysts in Australia, Asia and the Eurozone will move popular pairs with the same intensity as will local U.S. catalysts. U.S. economic data exhibits the greatest impact on pricing in most 24-hour cycles for two reasons: a) it affects all currency pairs and b) the economy ranks second in the world behind China, with changes in its economic outlook having an immediate ripple effect across the planet.
In addition, USD crosses are vulnerable to economic and political macro events that trigger highly correlated price action across equities, currencies and bond markets around the world. China’s devaluation of the yuan in August 2015 offers a perfect illustration. Even natural disasters have the power to generate this type of coordinated response, as evidenced by the 2011 Japanese tsunami.
Economic Releases
U.S. economic releases centered at 8:30 am and 10:00 am ET generate extraordinary USD trading volume, with high odds for strongly trending price movement in most popular pairs. Japanese and Australian releases move the USD/JPY and AUD/USD but get less European attention because they’re centered at 4:30 pm, 9:30 pm and 10:00 pm ET when Europe is in the middle of their sleep cycle. Even so, forex trading volume will spike sharply around these time zones.
Eurozone economic data impacts USD crosses with EUR, CHF and GBP, with key releases centered between 2:00 am and 5:00 am ET. The time segment from 30 to 60 minutes prior to these releases and 1 to 3 hours afterwards highlights an enormously popular period to trade European USD crosses because it overlaps the run-up into the U.S. trading day, drawing in significant volume from both sides of the Atlantic.
U.S. Dollar and World Exchange Hours
The schedules for many USD traders roughly follow exchange hours, centering their activity when Frankfurt, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Sydney, New York and Chicago equity, futures and options markets are open for business. This localization generates an increase in trading volume around in the late evening on the U.S. East Coast, continuing through the night and into the American lunch hour, when forex trading activity can drop sharply.
However, central bank agendas shift this activity cycle, with forex traders around the world staying at their desks when the Federal Reserve (FOMC) is scheduled to release a 2:00 pm interest rate decision or the minutes of the prior meeting. Other central banks schedule their decisions as follows:
Bank of Japan (BOJ) - 12:00 am ET
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) - 12:30 am ET
Bank of England (BOE) - 7:00 am ET
European Central Bank (ECB) - 7:45 am ET
Central bank decisions in Japan, Australia and Europe occur during already active traded periods while the FOMC is an outlier, reporting late in the European evening and in the Asia and Australian pre-dawn hours. This offers convenience to U.S.traders, while market players on the other side of the Atlantic and Pacific often need to lose sleep to stay ahead of the Fed’s market moving policy shifts.
The Bottom Line
Six popular currency pairs offer U.S. dollar traders a wide variety of short and long-term opportunities. The best times to trade these instruments are centered before and after economic releases in in the U.S. and cross-venues, with active forex trading between the late evening U.S. Eastern Time and the following lunch hour.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/090915/these-are-best-hours-trade-us-dollar.asp