油价上涨但缺乏继续上升动力

亚洲交易时间周二早间，油价在经历了一夜的下跌之后出现了小幅回升，但交易逐渐趋于平缓，因为市场对石油的定价是以潜在的石油减产为基准的。

在纽约商品交易所，十一月交割的轻质低硫原油期货价格为每桶50.25美元，上涨0.6%。在伦敦洲际交易所，十二月交割的布伦特原油价格为每桶51.8美元，上涨0.5%。

原油期货一夜之间下跌又转跌为涨，这表明石油输出国组织成员想要减产1%-2%是很有难度的。

在初步协议公布后，石油价格便出现了上涨，但是一些市场观察员认为，当前的市场缺乏大幅上涨的动力支撑。

此外，因为利比亚、伊朗、尼日利亚不参与协议，那么这些国家石油产量的增加足以抹平其他成员减产的额度。

花旗期货分析家Tim Evans表示：“这样一来，OPEC的石油总产量能否减少还尚未可知。OPEC需要制定更强硬的协议才能控制住石油产量。”

此外，截至明年下半年，市场可能仍维持石油供应过剩的局面。他补充道。制定配额的难题之一是某些制造商会在协议中夸大他们的产量。

“石油制造商总想夸大他们的产量，这样一来，他们需要减产的份额便会减少。”SCI International的能源分析家高健如是说。

在过去的两年中，原油供应过剩对炼油厂来说是件好事，因为这帮助他们降低了成本。但是分析家表示，炼油厂不得不面对缓慢的需求增长、不断提高的竞争力以及供应过剩的产品。

举例来讲，中国精炼油的出口量较去年有所增长。今年一月到九月，中国石油出口量为3405万桶，同比激增39%，。中国的石油产品以柴油和汽油为主，大多销往印度和东南亚。

“中国的精炼油供应过剩会给地区供应商带来很大的影响，亚洲地区的精炼利润已经压缩到了每桶7美元。”野村证券的地区石油汽油调研主管Gordon Kwan说道，“我们很担心中国燃料油供应过剩会产生的后果。”Kwan先生指出，在2015年亚洲精炼油的利润为每桶7.7美元。

在纽约商品交易所，十一月交割的新配方汽油合约为每加仑1.5029美元，上涨了105个点，而十一月交割的柴油价格为1.5639美元，上涨了78个点。

在洲际交易所，十一月交付的汽油成交价为每吨463.25美元，较周一上涨了4.75美元。

Oil prices up, but analysts say market has little to keep fueling momentum
 
Crude oil prices clawed back minor gains in early Asia trade Tuesday following an overnight decline but trading is expected to be muted now that the market has priced in a potential production cut.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November CLX6, +0.94%  traded at $50.25 a barrel, up $0.31, or 0.6%, in the Globex electronic session. December Brent crude LCOZ6, +0.78%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.28, or 0.5%, to $51.80 a barrel.

Oil futures fell overnight amid growing signs it will be difficult for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members to cap future production by 1%-2%, a goal that the group agreed upon in September.

Oil prices have risen since the preliminary deal was announced but some market watchers say the news has been largely priced in and the market now has little fuel to sustain momentum.

Moreover, given that countries like Libya, Iran, and Nigeria are excluded from deal, the expected increases in their production could easily offset reductions from other members.

“This leaves open the possibility that OPEC total production might not see a net decline,” said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst, adding that it will take a “stronger deal” to rein in output.

Otherwise, the market could remain oversupplied at least until the second half of the next year, he added. Part of the difficulty in setting quotas is that producers sometimes overstate their output in negotiations.

“Producers always want to talk up their production levels so they would sustain a smaller cut [in reality] under the deal,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.

The glut of crude in the past two years has been good for refiners since it lowered their costs. But analysts say that refiners will face headwinds from sluggish consumption growth, rising competition, and a swelling unwanted supply of product.

For example, China’s exports of refined oil have increased compared with last year. From January through September, China’s oil product exports have surged 39% from the previous year, to 34.05 million metric tons. Most of China’s oil products, namely diesel and gasoline, are being sold to India and southeast Asia.

“China’s refined product oversupply could cast a big overhang for many regional players, with Asia’s refining margin likely to be capped at $7 a barrel,” said Gordon Kwan, head of regional oil and gas research at Nomura. “We are concerned about repercussions from China’s fuel oversupply.” In 2015, the Asia refining margin averaged $7.7 a barrel, according to Mr. Kwan.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for November RBX6, +0.60% — the benchmark gasoline contract — rose 105 points to $1.5029 a gallon, while November diesel traded at $1.5639, 78 points higher.

ICE gasoil for November changed hands at $463.25 a metric ton, up $4.75 from Monday’s settlement.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-up-but-analysts-say-market-has-little-to-keep-fueling-momentum-2016-10-18