交易的基础（一）

市场有四个阶段，并且没有任何一个交易系统都适用于所有阶段。一些交易系统适合调整期，即阶段1和阶段3，而另外一些交易系统则适合阶段2和阶段4.趋势交易比较流行，因为它可以在较短时间内带来较大盈利。

趋势交易

趋势交易的目标是在阶段1和阶段2的过渡期做多，并在阶段4之前平仓。一些交易模型会在4阶段做空，但是这一方法只适合有经验的交易者。

成功的交易系统通常具有以下原则：

1. 寻找股票
利用股票筛选器识别股票市场领导者。
2. 市场趋势
(a)决定要交易的时间框架。.
(b) 利用合适的趋势指标确认市场走势
3. 趋势方向
利用同样的趋势指标确认每一只股票的走势。

4. 开仓信号
(a) 利用震荡指标找到进场信号
(b) 利用追踪止损来确认平仓位置
5. 止损
(a) 成功下单之后立刻设置止损。
(b) 不要超过最大可接受损失。
(c) 止损要与交易系统给出的信号一致。
(d) 不断的调整止损以锁定盈利。
6. 平仓信号
根据合适的趋势指标的信号平仓。

提醒

这些都是交易者在决定购买哪只股票时需要思考的，什么时候买入和卖出。这不是一个神奇的公式，但是坚持使用会提高你的交易结果。交易方法可以比作为木匠的工具：熟练使用可以产生出色效果，不熟练会导致受伤。在投入资金之前，要学会正确的使用你的交易工具。持续几年研究指标的长处和短处，了解它们彼此间是如何相互影响的，它们与市场又有什么联系。从小量的资金开始，当自己对交易策略有很大把握的时候再增加资金投入。

1. 股票市场领导者
当选择交易股票的时候，要注重选择市场领导者而不是那些落后者。只投资于自己所了解的企业。如果你对自己区别好坏的能力不自信，那么你可以咨询股票经纪人或财务顾问的意见。同时，你也可以考虑根据基本趋势购买成长型基金。

股票市场领导者

利用股票筛选器比较过去一年中走势相对较好的股票，并对比其中的前10%。
• 过去三年里每股的销量和收益是否都有较大幅度增长？
• 股票销量和收益在最近几个季度是否都有所增长？警惕因成本缩减和裁员带来的短期收益提高，因为这势必会以长期收益为代价。
• 寻找具有可持续的竞争优势和强劲的增长前景的股票。公司是否有竞争优势？调查它们的产品和服务：是否有更好的技术，更强的品牌，版权和专利？与同行比较，它们是否拥有更强专业能力？

产业领域

利用股票筛选器选出表现相对较好的产业领域。从表现最好的产业领域选出要交易的股票：
• 在同样的产业领域找出2个或多个股票市场领导者。
• 比较不同产业领域过去三年中的相对表现，并从这些产业领域找出表现较好的领域。

阻力位

寻找那些近期不会遇到支撑位、走出新高的股票市场领导者。
例：嘉信理财公司股票周走势图以及其与标普500的价格比。

证券经纪人在90年代是主导行业之一。嘉信理财在快速增长的高收益推动下，在1998年10月20日创下新高。
1. 价格比，表现了嘉信理财公司股票与标普500的相对价格比，在1998年中期[1]处急剧下降。
2. 价格比在第三季度[2]处快速回升，并在10月20日在[H]处走出新高。

2. 市场方向

市场的总体趋势影响着相对较小市场以及每一只股票的走势。在分别看到每一只股票之前，你需要研究一下市场的大趋势。

(a)时间框架

决定你要交易的时间周期，这会影响你对指标的选择：
• 长期或主要趋势是以年衡量的；
• 中期或次级走势通常为3周至6个月之间；
• 短期趋势时间低于3周；
• 日内趋势；

(b) 趋势指标

根据一系列的交易系统确定市场将来走势：
• 利用趋势指标来确定市场的基本趋势。
• 查看道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500和纳斯达克指数。道琼斯道琼斯指数包括排名前30位绩优工业类股，而S＆P500指数更能代表整个市场。纳斯达克对高科技股票价格的影响更大。
• 此外，如果你要是在美国以外的国家交易，比如英国市场的富时100指数以及澳大利亚的ASX 200指数。
例：下图为标准普尔500指数以及7日、150日均线。
 
做多信号在10月23号产生

• 7日均线上穿至150日均线之上。
• 150日均线向上倾斜。

3. 趋势方向

根据趋势交易
利用趋势指标确定价格是否处于趋势中还是调整期。只有当趋势与信号一致的时候才有效。
例：嘉信理财公司股票走势，利用7日、150日指数移动平均线来确定基本趋势。
 
市场在在10月23号给出股价上升信号，股价在[M]处上涨动力强劲。
• 7日指数移动平均线在 [T]处上穿150日指数移动平均线；
• 150日指数移动平均线向上倾斜。
同时，次级走势不断升高的新高以及低点也与之吻合。股价在10月20日达到新高。

Trading Basics
The market has 4 basic phases and no trading system is suited to all of them. Some systems are suited to Phases 1 and 3, when the market is ranging, while others are designed to trade the trends in Phases 2 and 4. Trend-trading systems are more popular as they require less time and normally generate larger returns
Trading Trends
The object of trend-trading is to go long at the transition from Phase 1 to Phase 2 and to exit before Phase 4. Some models also short the market during Phase 4, but this should be left to experienced traders .
Successful systems are built around the following principles:
7. Selecting securities.
Use the Stock Screener to identify potential Market Leaders.
8. Market direction.
(a) Decide on the Time Frame that you are trading.
(b) Confirm the Market Direction using a suitable trend indicator.
9. Trend direction.
Using the same indicator, check the Trend Direction of each security.
10. Entry signals.
(a) Take Entry Signals from a suitable momentum oscillator.
(b) Use Trailing Stops to time entry and exit points.
11. Stop losses.
(a) Set Stop Loss Orders as soon as your trade is confirmed.
(b) Do not exceed the Maximum Acceptable Loss.
(c) Be technically consistent when Setting Stop Levels.
(d) Adjust Stop Levels over time to protect your profits.
12. Exit signals.
Take Exit Signals from a suitable trend indicator.
A Word Of Caution
These are typical steps that a trader will follow in deciding what stocks to buy, when to buy them and when to sell. It is not a magic formula, but consistent use should enhance your investment performance.
Trading methods can be compared to a carpenter's tools: Skilled use can produce outstanding results but unskilled use may lead to injury. Learn to use your trading tools properly before committing any capital. Study the behavior of the indicators over several years, learn their strengths and weaknesses and how they interact with each other and with the market. Start with a small amount of capital and only increase this when you are confident that you have a winning strategy.
1. Market Leaders

When selecting stocks, focus on market leaders rather than laggards.
Only invest in businesses that you understand. If you are not confident in your ability to separate the good from the bad then use a stockbroker's or financial advisor's recommendations. Alternatively, consider investing in a good growth fund and switch in/out with the primary trend.
Market Leaders
Use the Stock Screener to compare the relative performance of all stocks over the past 12 months. Analyze the top 10 per cent:
• Have sales and earnings per share grown strongly over the past 3 years?
• Have sales and earnings per share growth accelerated in recent quarters? Be on the alert for cost reductions and layoffs that may enhance short-term performance at the expense of long-term growth.
• Look for sustainable competitive advantage and strong growth prospects.
Does the company have a competitive edge? Examine their products or services: do they have better technology; stronger brands; copyrights or patents; or greater expertise; that gives them an advantage over competitors?
Industry Sectors
Use the Stock Screener to identify the industry sectors that show the best relative performance. Select stocks from top industry sectors:
• Look for two or more market leaders in the same industry sector.
• Compare the relative performance of industry sectors over the last 3 years and look for market leaders from these sectors.
Resistance Levels
Select stocks that are clear of major resistance levels. Look for market leaders that have recently made new highs or turnarounds that are well below major resistance levels.
 EXAMPLE
Charles Schwab is charted below with   weekly Price Ratio showing performance relative to the S&P 500.
Securities Brokers were one of the leading industry sectors in the 90's. Charles Schwab reached a new high on 20 October 1998 on the back of strong earnings growth.
3. The Price Ratio, depicting stock performance relative to the S&P 500, fell sharply during the mid-1998 correction [1].
4. Price Ratio recovers sharply in the third quarter [2], making a new high [H] on 20 October.
[ Next ]
2. Market Direction
The overall market influences the performance of smaller markets and individual stocks. Study the big picture first before looking at any shares in isolation.
(a) Time Frame
Decide on the cycle that you are going to trade:
• Long-term (or primary) trends that are measured in years;
• Intermediate (or secondary) trends of 3 weeks up to 6 months;
• Short-term cycles of less than 3 weeks; and
• Intra-day trends.
This will influence your indicator settings. More details can be found at Time Frames and Indicator Time Frames.
(b) Trend Indicator
Trade only in the direction of the overall market:
• Use a trend indicator to determine the direction in which the market is trending.
• Chart either the Dow Industrial Average, Standard & Poor 500 or the NASDAQ index.
The Dow comprises the top 30 blue chip industrial stocks while the S&P 500 is more representative of the entire market. The NASDAQ has more influence on tech stock prices.
• In addition, chart a local market index such as the FTSE 100 for the UK market or the ASX 200 for Australia, if you are trading outside the USA.
Reading The Market discusses a number of systems used to determine market direction.
 
EXAMPLE
The Standard & Poor 500 is charted with   7-day and   150-day exponential moving averages, used to track the primary trend.
An up-trend is signaled on October 23rd when:
• The fast MA crosses to above the slow MA; and
• The slow MA slopes upwards.
3. Trend Direction
Trade only in the direction of the trend:
Use a trend indicator to identify whether the security is trending orranging. Only take signals if the security is trending upwards.
EXAMPLE
Charles Schwab is charted with   7-day and   150-day exponential moving averages, used to track the primary trend.
By October 23rd, when the market signals an up-trend [M], the stock is trending strongly upwards:
• The fast MA crosses above the slow MA at [T]; and
• The slow MA slopes upwards.
This is also evident from the successively higher peaks and troughs on the secondary cycle and the new High reached on October 20th.

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