石油行业的每一个人都感到了紧缩。
就在一年前，一桶西德克萨斯原油价格超过100美元。去年10月份，价格也在90美元一桶。接下来的三个月之后，一桶原油价格减半至45美元，最低价达到43美元，这是金融危机之后的价格最低点。生活成本危机的恐惧被价格快速下降及通货紧缩的担忧取代。市场对一波又一波的石油公司倒闭充耳不闻。
然而，从那时起，价格大幅上涨。每桶价格又回到60美元。很明显，不是100美元，但这却是从低点的一次有力反弹。这给我们留下两大问题：发生了什么？石油价格会进一步上涨吗？
沙特与页岩油生产商的战争
导致去年石油价格下跌的一个关键因素是沙特政府忽略OPEC石油输出国对石油减产的呼吁。沙特政府没有看到任何向其竞争对手割让市场份额的理由。它们能尝到价格降低带来的痛苦，而别人不会。
它们这么做一部分伤害了劲敌伊朗以及伊朗同盟俄罗斯。同时也是导致美国页岩油生产商破产的一个长期战略。美国页岩油的崛起是对沙特能源控制权的一个最大的长期威胁——事实上，美元已经取代沙特阿拉伯成为世界上最大的石油生产国。
这一策略似乎有效果。大部分的主要页岩油生产企业已经减少了勘探。对于那些反应迟缓的公司，银行已经强制性减少了它们的信贷额度。
因此，美国作业的钻井平台数量已经降至900个。这只是去年的一半，也是近五年来的最低值。并且，数量仍有减少的趋势。能源投资者T Boone Pickens认为油价应该会上涨至70美元一桶才不会导致石油公司的亏损。
页岩油生产商并不是唯一一个有问题的公司——企业盈利年份不可避免地对成本控制不严格——石油行业的每一个人都感觉到了紧缩。员工成本被降低。大约75%的北海石油生产商进行了裁员以及削减工时。设备支出暂时搁置——全球所有的主要石油公司都削减了资本支出。
勘探预算也被压缩。能源分析师Wood Mackenzie认为他们今年平均会下降30%。这些开支的削减不仅会降低今天的石油产量，同时也会减少未来几年的石油供应量。
中东的紧张局势
石油价格小幅上升的另一个原因是中东的紧张局势。过去的两个月中，沙特阿拉伯与伊朗一直在为控制也门而战争。情况很复杂，因为基地组织的第三方派系也参与了进去。
然而，这可以归结如下：伊朗支持已经控制了大部分也门的胡塞叛军。同时，沙特联合政府正在采取直接行动捍卫官方政府权力。
虽然战争的过程中有短暂停火，但丝毫没有停止的迹象。胡赛军队开始攻击沙特与伊朗边界的城镇。同时，有报道称沙特地面部队即将进驻也门。专家警告说，这有可能导致中东地区的主要两个大国之间的大规模冲突，并最终扰乱石油供应。
会重新加大生产吗？
反弹是否会持续？毕竟，几天前，高盛(Goldman Sachs)发布报告称有可能会再次下跌，因为美国的页岩油生产商会重新进入市场。资本经济的朱利安•杰瑟普(Julian Jessop)表示赞同：“价格在年内下降的可能性更大。”
然而，这可能过于乐观（或悲观，取决于你是石油生产者还是消费者）。尽管一些页岩生产商在石油价格高于60美元时可以盈利，但是大部分需要石油价格位于70~75美元（甚至更多）才会盈利。削减产量的势头有可能持续，而不是重回市场。
同时，中国刺激经济增长（中国政府在周末再次降息）的同时也增加了对石油的需求。即使价格没有从这里上升，现在的价格也已经十分接近低点。
How to profit from the oil price rally
Matthew Partridge, 2015.5.13
Everyone in the oil business is feeling the squeeze
Exactly a year ago, the price of a barrel of West Texas oil was over $100. Even as late as early October, it cost $90.
Then, in the space of just over three months, the oil price halved to $45. At one point in March, it was just $43, a level not seen since the aftermath of the financial crisis.
Fears over a ‘cost of living crisis’ were replaced by concerns about sliding prices and deflation. Markets held their breath for a wave of oil-company collapses.
Yet since then, the price has rallied sharply. It’s back to around $60 a barrel. Sure, it’s not $100, but it’s a major rebound from the low.
That leaves us with two big questions: why is it happening? And will oil rally further?
The Saudi war of attrition on shale producers
One key factor driving oil prices lower last year was that the Saudi government ignored calls from other members of the Opec oil cartel to cut production. The Saudis didn’t see any reason why they should cede market share to their rivals. They could take the pain of lower prices. Others couldn’t.
They did this partly to hurt arch-rival Iran and its ally Russia. But it was also part of a long-term strategy to put US shale oil producers out of business. The rise of US shale oil is one of the biggest long-term threats to Saudi control of the energy market – in fact, last year the US overtook Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer.
The strategy seems to be working. Most of the major shale companies have cut back on exploration. Where firms have been slow to act, banks have forced them to do so by cutting their credit lines.
As a result, the number of working rigs in the US has fallen to 900. That’s down 50% on a year ago, and it’s the lowest figure for nearly five years. And the cuts aren’t over yet. Energy investor T Boone Pickens reckons the industry needs prices to rise sustainably to around $70 a barrel before firms stop losing money on every drop they take out of the ground.
Shale oil producers aren’t the only ones having problems – after the bonanza years and the lax cost controls they inevitably led to, everyone in the oil business is feeling the squeeze.
Staff costs are being cut. Around 75% of North Sea oil producers have shed staff and reduced working hours. Investment in equipment is on hold – all the major global oil companies have cut capital spending.
And exploration budgets are being squeezed. Energy analyst Wood Mackenzie reckons they will fall by an average of 30% this year. These spending cuts will not only hit today’s production levels, but will also reduce supply for years to come.
The ever-present tension in the Middle East
The other reason for oil prices inching higher again has been rising tension in the Middle East. For the past two months, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been fighting a proxy war for control of Yemen. The situation is complicated, since there’s also a third faction, which is allied to Al Qaeda.
However, it boils down to this: Iran is backing the Houthi rebels, which now control most of the country. At the same time, a Saudi-led coalition is taking direct action to defend the official government.
While there has been a temporary pause in fighting, few expect it to hold. Houthi forces have begun attacking Saudi towns on the border between the two countries. Meanwhile, there are reports that Saudi ground troops are about to enter Yemen. Experts warn this could lead to a wide conflict between the Middle East’s two main powers that could end up disrupting oil supplies.
Won’t production just start up again?
Can the rally last? After all, a few days ago, Goldman Sachs released a report arguing that prices may start to fall again as US producers are tempted back into the market. Julian Jessop of Capital Economics agrees: “prices are now more likely to fall than to rise over the remainder of the year”.
However, this may be overly hopeful (or pessimistic, depending on whether you’re an oil producer or consumer). While some shale oil firms can make money if prices move above $60, others need $70-$75, or even more, if they are to remain profitable. The momentum may remain with cutting back, rather than re-entering the market.
At the same time, there is evidence that China’s growing stimulus efforts (it cut interest rates again at the weekend) are boosting its demand for oil. Even if the price doesn’t surge from here, it looks like the low may be in at least.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://moneyweek.com/how-to-profit-from-the-oil-price-rally/