美元能超过欧元吗？

随着欧元区经济衰弱和美国经济好转，两个地区的货币出现先了人们期望的反映。这导致许多在欧洲拥有大量业务的美国公司出现了诸多汇率问题。但是这些问题会持续吗？这取决于这两个经济体怎么处理这个问题。

欧元疲软

不仅仅是希腊迫使欧元价值下降。量化宽松是目前对欧元施加重大影响的力量。欧洲央行（ECB）主席Mario Draghi在一月宣布这个高达1.1万亿的项目。随后涌入市场的新的流动性债券使贫血的主权性债务收益暴跌。三月实行的刺激增长了以欧元计价的债券的价值，以至于许多短期票据实际上提供负收益率。瑞士最近也以负收益率拍卖了十年期的国库债券，西班牙也有一些即将到期的债券进入了负收益率的境地。这和在2011年面临违约的国家完全不同。

对低收益或者负收益不满意的欧洲投资者几乎毫无选择。公司债务收益几乎和政府的一样低，尤其是那些高质量的资产。股票和发展中市场债券相对高些，但是他们带有更大的风险。对欧洲交易员显而易见的解决方法是投资美国国债并对冲汇率风险。此举将有助于增强美元。

此外，欧盟经济不是做的很好。欧元区第四季度的GDP增长仅为百分之零点三，大部分来自德国百分之零点七的增长。在和美国相比，这一数据显得非常疲软。（更多请看：《欧元的背后：历史和未来》。）

美元走强

美国是世界上最强大的经济体之一，它的经济复苏导致美元对所有货币价值激增，不仅仅是欧元。美元指数——用来测量美元对其他货币的强度，例如欧元、日元、英镑和加拿大元，在去年大约增长了百分之二十七。而欧元占这一指数的百分之五十七点六，这表明美元对其他货币具有拉动力。

美国国债债券也远比其他国家具有吸引力。美国政府被认为和欧洲央行一样稳定，但是当前提供更高的收益率。在经过对美元失去其世界储备货币地位的担忧后，人们发现美元还是一如既往的强劲。

美国经济看起来也十分明朗。2014年美联储以很少的长期负面影响结束了量化宽松政策。GDP 继续以每年百分之二到百分之三的速度增长，尽管有由恶劣天气原因造成偶尔季度估计失误。（更多请看：《为什么 欧元/美元 货币对不报价成 美元/欧元？》）

总结

目前，一欧元的价格为1.06美元，远低于2011年两种货币几乎1.56美元的差距。是否有足够的动力跨越这个鸿沟呢？

确定的是风险看起来在欧元区内部。希腊是一个巨大的威胁，如果它脱离欧盟，毫无疑问欧元价值将会下降。当然也有次要风险，包括俄罗斯的侵略和负经济增长。

但是越大的风险将会持续使增强美元。在世界其他主要经济体都面临麻烦的时候，美国经济持续看好。下跌的原油价格正在重伤加拿大，欧元疲软影响英国和日本不能摆脱其经济衰退。给投资者留下的选择很少，在这点上，好像美元将会不可避免的超过欧元。

Will The USD Surpass The EUR?

By Vanessa Page | April 14, 2015  

As the eurozone economy weakens and the U.S. economy strengthens, the regions’ respective currencies have reacted in an expected manner. This has led to many currency-related problems for U.S.-based companies with large operations in Europe. But will these problems continue? That depends on how the two economies proceed from this point.

Euro weakness

It isn’t just Greece that’s driving down the value of the euro. Quantitative easing is another force currently exerting significant influence on the currency. European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi announced the program, which is worth up to €1.1 trillion, in January. The subsequent influx of new liquidity in the bond market sent already anemic sovereign debt yields tumbling. The stimulus, implemented in March, has increased the value of euro-denominated bonds so much that many shorter term notes are actually offering negative yields. Switzerland recently auctioned off 10-year treasury notes with a negative yield as well, and even Spain has witnessed some of its near-maturity bonds falling into negative yield territory. This is a far cry from the nation’s 2011 near default.

European investors who aren’t happy with low- or negative-yield bonds have few options. Corporate debt yields are nearly as low as government issues, especially for higher quality assets. Stocks and developing market bonds yield more, but they come with much greater risk. The obvious solution for European traders is to invest in U.S. treasuries and hedge out the currency exposure. This move is helping to strengthen the U.S. dollar.

Furthermore, the European Union economy isn’t doing well. Eurozone GDP grew by only 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, with most of the economic expansion coming from Germany and its 0.7 percent growth. Those figures are weak, especially compared to the U.S. (For more, see: Behind The Euro: History And Future.)

Dollar strength

The American economy is one of the strongest in the world, and its economic recovery is causing the dollar to surge against to all the currencies, not just the Euro. The U.S. Dollar Index—which measures the strength of the dollar versus against foreign currencies such as the euro, yen, pound and Canadian dollar—is up roughly 27 percent over the last year. While the euro makes up 57.6 percent of the index, it’s evident that the U.S. dollar is still rallying compared to the other currencies.

U.S. treasury bonds also look far more attractive than other countries’ bonds. The U.S. government is viewed as stable as the ECB but is currently offering much higher yields. After much concern over the dollar potentially losing its status as the world’s reserve currency, it’s clear the currency is perceived as being strong as ever.

The U.S. economy is also looking pretty bright. The Federal Reserve discontinued quantitative easing in 2014 with very little long-term side effects. GDP growth continues to increase by 2 to 3 percent a year, notwithstanding the occasional quarterly estimate miss caused by terrible weather. (For more, see: Why isn't the EUR/USD currency pair quoted as USD/EUR?)
The Bottom Line

Presently, a single euro fetches $1.06 – a far cry from 2011 when the difference between the two currencies was nearly $0.50 greater. Is there enough momentum to bridge the gap?

It certainly looks that way as risks continue inside the eurozone. Greece is the big threat – if it leaves the European Union, there’s little doubt the currency will fall. There are also secondary risks, including more aggression from Russia and negative economic growth.

But the bigger risk could be the continued strengthening of the U.S. dollar. In a world where every other major economy is having trouble, the U.S. is continuing to look better. Falling oil prices are hurting Canada, euro weakness is affecting the UK and Japan just can’t break out of its economic slump. Investors are left with few choices, and at this point, it seems like an inevitability that the U.S. dollar will surpass the euro.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/041415/will-usd-surpass-eur.asp