为什么希腊退出利好欧元区

青铜级股票经理Barry Norris认为欧元区有能力希腊退出，并称这或许不是一个坏主意——尽管它暗含着对市场的不利因素。

很难低估欧央行QE政策的重要性，此前QE一直被视为欧央行永远不会实施的一种政策性工具，但现在欧央行已经全方位地实施QE政策。这些政策的一个合乎逻辑的结论是，只要欧元区国家认同，欧央行将会使他们的债务货币化。

“希腊政府目前没有办法得到足够的资金”

鉴于欧元区政府存在无法偿还所借外币的风险，欧央行最终确立了自己成为一个可靠买家与贷款人的角色——像美联储和英国央行一样。因此，就欧元的长期生存能力而言，它的信用差距在缩小。欧元区容易受到主权债务危机的主要原因已不存在。

然而，QE是一个很强大的政策，如果滥用的话，它将是十分危险的。市场应该相信，QE并不是欧元区政府的财政责任以及经济改革可信度的替代者。一旦任何的欧元区政府拒绝遵守规则，市场对欧元的信心（欧元价值的体现）就会大幅降低，欧洲的未来经济也将处于危险之中。

QE就像《指环王》三部曲里的戒指：它十分重要，同时它需要存在于Frodo Baggins的手中而不是被Gollum，Saruman 或者 Sauron所拥有。

希腊面临对抗

希腊政府与欧盟及货币基金组织债权人之间的对抗可能会在65亿政府债券到期时也就是夏季发生。因为希腊政府暂时没有足够的资金。

如果没有实施一个可信的经济改革计划，欧盟及货币基金组织就不可能同意给希腊提供足够的流动性。似乎，目前的希腊联盟在实施这么一个经济改革计划方面也不会有足够的政治支持。

如果希腊政府迫使本国银行购买政府债权来替代欧盟/货币基金组织的援助，并以此来避免信用危机，那么欧央行就有可能停止对希腊流动性的紧急援助，从而迫使希腊政府引入另一种货币。

希腊退出利好欧元区

鉴于现在存在的风火墙，如果希腊退出欧元区，即使短期市场会因为希腊的违约而出现负面事件，但是从长期来看，我欧元区肯定会变得更好。希腊只是一个小的经济体，只占欧元区GDP的1%多一点。

希腊的政府债券只有12%被私人投资者持有：最大的风险资本最终被欧元区别的国家政府持有，这应该放在欧央行每个月购债600亿欧元的背景下考虑。事实上，希腊政府总的3220亿欧元债务只相当于欧央行五个多月的QE购买金额。

希腊退出欧元区是否会“传染“欧元区弱小国家相继退出欧元区是一个备受争议的问题。。我们认为，希腊在债务的不可持续性以及政府领导方面是非常独特的。欧央行会加速购买计划来恢复市场的信心。

最终，一个更加可信的、没有希腊在内的欧元区会出现。简而言之，我们似乎达到了一个临界点，希腊的政治“传染”是否会鼓励经济文盲的政治运动现在已经超越了金融的“传染”，因此，现在是时候考虑希腊退出欧元区对于欧元区剩下的国家来说是否是最坏的结果。

Why a Greek Exit Could Be Good for Europe

Bronze Rated Argonaut European equity manager Barry Norris thinks the Eurozone can now afford a Grexit and says it may not be such a bad idea – despite the implication for markets
 
It is difficult to underemphasise the significance of ECB QE, which had previously been seen as a policy tool which the ECB could or would never implement but for which now there is essentially an open-ended commitment. The logical conclusion of these policies is that the ECB will, if necessary, monetize the debt of all Eurozone sovereigns so long as their governments are not beyond the pale.
 
The Greek government does not currently have access to sufficient funds
 
Whereas there was previously a risk that all Eurozone governments had borrowed in a foreign currency which they ultimately could not print, the ECB has now established itself – like the Fed and the BoE – as a credible buyer, as well as lender, of last resort.
As a result there should be a much diminished credibility gap as to the long term viability of the Euro. The main cause of the Eurozone’s unique vulnerability to a sovereign debt crisis is arguably now removed.
QE is, however, a powerful tool which is very dangerous should it be abused. Markets need to have confidence that the ECB’s QE is not a substitute for fiscal responsibility and credible economic reform by Eurozone governments. Should any Eurozone government be seen as refusing to abide by the rules, then confidence in the Euro, as a store of value, would be greatly diminished and Europe’s economic future put in peril.
As such QE is like the ring in the Lord of the Rings trilogy: it is essential that whilst it exists it remains in the possession of Frodo Baggins rather than Gollum, Saruman or Sauron.
Greece Faces Confrontation
The confrontational scenario between the Syrizia-led Greek government and its EU and IMF creditors is likely to come to a head over the summer when €6.5 billion of government bonds are scheduled to be repaid. The Greek government does not currently have access to sufficient funds.
It is unlikely that the EU and IMF will agree to afford Greece sufficient liquidity unless a credible programme of economic reform is established. It also seems unlikely that the current Greek coalition would have sufficient political support to implement such a programme of economic reform.
Should the Greek government force the Greek banks to purchase its debt as an alternative to formal EU/IMF assistance then to avoid moral hazard the ECB may feel obliged to cut off emergency liquidity assistance to the Greek banks, thus forcing the Greek government into introducing an alternative currency.
Greek Exit Could Be Good for the Eurozone
In view of the firewalls now in place, I no longer believe that the Eurozone would not be better off, certainly in the longer term, by ejecting Greece from Euro membership even if this leads to a short-term market negative event of Greek debt default. Greece is a small economy, accounting for just over 1% of Eurozone GDP.
Only 12% of Greek government debt is held by private investors: the biggest amount of capital at risk is ultimately owned by other Eurozone governments, which have record cheap access to capital, and should be put into context of the €60 billion a month of new money being created by the ECB in asset purchases. In fact the entire stock of Greek government debt of €322 billion amounts to just over five months of ECB QE.
It is a matter of debate whether a “Grexit” would lead to sustained “contagion” across weaker members of the Eurozone. We think that Greece is unique in the Eurozone in terms of its unsustainable debt burden and recalcitrant government and that the ECB would likely accelerate its asset purchases in order to restore market confidence.
Ultimately, a more credible Eurozone might emerge without Greece. In short, we would seemed to have reached a point where the risks of political “contagion” from Greece to the rest of the Eurozone in terms of encouraging economic illiterate political movements now exceed the risks of financial “contagion” and as such it is time to consider whether “Grexit” is now the least worst outcome for the rest of the Eurozone.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/137183/why-a-greek-exit-could-be-good-for-europe.aspx