2015年下半年需要关注的三个领域

标准普尔500指数在2015年上半年基本上没有变化，然而底层领域的背离说明了一个不同的问题。主要股指微薄的经济回报是来自于敏感地区利率的弱化以及高收益领域的强劲增长动力。市场的激烈竞争在几个重要的、值得关注的领域之间创造了一个相对股指差异。

领导者: 医疗卫生
医疗保健板块曾近一度被认为是市场的防守领域，它们非弹性的商业模式类似于日用必需品。毕竟，医疗服务以及药品公司的运作没有周期性负担。然而，一些人认为由于生物技术在医学领域的繁荣和持续发展，这些股票已经转为增长导向型阶段。

过去的3到5年间，健康护理指数基金（XLV）在医疗卫生领域的表现一直处于最佳水平，今年也仍是该领域的领军者。毫无疑问，这种基金在6月30日显示了巨大的活力以及波动性，涨幅达9.51%。虽然医疗领域一直是市场上最具有弹性的，但是面对近期的高点我也会犹豫是否追涨。如果你一直关注XLV或者别的健康护理基金，那么你需要仔细观察入场点，至少需要在小幅下滑后再买入。

此外，这个领域应该被视为领导型基金增长动能的基准。如果我们看到XLV基金开始淡出人们的视线，那么这就可能说明投资者正在规避风险并保持防御姿态。医疗保健股占据美国摩根士丹利国际资本公司的基金动能系数的30%，折射出该领域的潜在控股性能特征。

滞后者: 公共事业
在硬币的另一面，公共事业由于今年的利率上升而受到拖累。由于缺乏2014年利率所带来的推动作用，公共事业基金（XLU）在2015年上半年下降了10.70%。XLU的见顶价格几乎与利率触底处于同一时期 ，自此之后一直处于低位。目前来看，公共事业股票的价格似乎与美国国债收益的走势密切相关。传统的防御性行业一直在规避增长型的卫生保健、消费品以及科技股。

从相对价值角度来看，我认为公共事业看起来似乎很有吸引力，因为利率将会保持稳定并在接下来6个月内会走低。最近的价格下跌也促进了XLU的3.80%的健康增长，这使得它称为标准普尔500公司里收益率最高的领域。
收入型投资者应该注意到诸如DVY和FDL等多样性收益基金都拥有大部分的公共事业股票。这种资产分配拖累了上半年的收益，但也应该注意到，这是基金以后收益的关键驱动。

中间者:金融类股
金融类股票一直被认为是抑制利率上升所产生影响的良方，然而金融行业的基金XLF从年初开始就一直表现低迷。XLF公布2015年的前六个月的净收益率为-0.61%，并且没有显示出拯救其声誉的鼓舞性价格。XLF是一个有趣的基金，因为它是由大量的指定的以金融为中心的公司组成，包括大型银行、不动产投资信托公司、券商甚至诸如伯克希尔哈撒韦(BRK-B)等多元化控股公司。

不动产投资信托公司当前是XLF基金的第三大产业集团，比重达14.20%，并且从年初开始一直影响基金的表现。随着公共事业股票在2015年下降了5.5%，房地产基金（IYR）也经历了相同的敏感利率的拖累。
相反，那些只关注于银行股的指数比如KBE今年已经上涨了8.87%。很明显，这些股票是真正的利率上升受益者，因为这是工业收益的主要驱动力。最终，XLF似乎也在经历它内部的关于投资领域差别的分歧，这导致它在过去6个月内漫无目的地随波逐流。

总结
上面的信息适用于综合类指数以及个别领域投资。拥有多样化股票、基金的投资者需要认识到潜在的资产配置以及与未来的风险回报有关的投资领域仓位。
那些倾向于选择更有针对性基金的投资者可以选择改变他们的仓位，并充分利用超买区域的特定市场环境优势。随着我们步入下半年，小幅的战略性改变会对你的表现以及风险状况产生很大的影响。

3 Sectors To Watch In The Second Half Of 2015
By David Fabian of FMD Capital Blog
Wednesday, July 1, 2015 9:47 PM EDT
The S&P 500 Index was nearly unchanged in the first half of 2015, yet the divergences in underlying sectors told a very different tale. The tepid return in the major averages was generated by weakening in interest rate sensitive areas and continued strength in high growth leadership categories. This tug-of-war style market has created a relative valuation chasm between several important sectors that warrants close attention.
Leader: Health Care
Health care stocks were once considered a defensive area of the market similar to consumer staples and utilities because of their inelastic business models. After all, medical services and drug companies operate with little cyclical burden to their bottom line. Nevertheless, some believe that these stocks have transitioned to a more growth-oriented phase that has been driven by the biotech boom and continued advancements in the medical field.
The Health Care Select Sector SDPR ETF (XLV) has been a top performing area of the market over the last 3 and 5-year time frames and continues to lead as the number one sector so far this year. There is no doubt that this ETF has shown tremendous momentum and activity has been robust as XLV has gained 9.51% through June 30.
While this area of the market has been one of the most resilient, I would be hesitant to chase performance and add near its recent highs. If XLV or a similar health care fund has been on your radar, I would be patient with respect to any future entry points and look to pick up shares on at least a modest dip.
In addition, this sector should serve as a benchmark of momentum leadership. If we see XLV start to fall out of favor, it may signal that investors are looking to pair back on risk and potentially rotate into a more defensive stance. Health care stocks currently make up over 30% of the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM), which screens its underlying holdings for recent performance characteristics.
Laggard: Utilities
On the flip side of the coin, utilities have been torched this year as a result of rising interest rates. Coming off a strong performance in 2014 where rising rates acted as a tailwind, the Utility Select Sector SPDR (XLU) is down 10.70% through the first half of 2015. The price of XLU peaked at virtually the same time as interest rates bottomed and has been on a steady course lower ever since.
For the moment, it appears that the fate of utility stocks is going to be closely tied to the price action of U.S. Treasury yields. This traditionally defensive sector has been eschewed for more growth-oriented positions in health care, consumer discretionary, and technology stocks.
From a relative value standpoint, I believe that utilities look attractive at these levels given the thesis that interest rates will remain stable or head lower over the next six months. The recent drop in price has also boosted the yield on XLU to a healthy 3.80%, which makes it the highest yielding sector in the S&P 500.
Income investors should note that diversified dividend funds such as the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) and First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund (FDL) have outsized utility sector exposure. This asset allocation acted as a drag on returns in the first half of the year and should be noted as a key driver moving forward as well.
Tweener: Financials
Financial stocks have long been touted as the cure to beat rising interest rates, yet the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) has been mired in a sideways malaise since the beginning of the year. XLF posted a net return of -0.61% through the first six months of 2015 and has failed to show inspiring price action to back up its reputation.
XLF is an interesting fund because of the wide designation of financial-centric companies. This ETF includes large banks, REITs, brokerages, and even diversified holding companies such as Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRK-B).
REITs are currently the third largest industry group within XLF at 14.20% and have dragged on returns since the beginning of the year. The iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) has experienced the same interest rate sensitive drag as utility stocks and is down 5.5% in 2015.
Conversely, indexes that focus solely on banking stocks such as the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) have gained 8.87% this year. Clearly these stocks are the true beneficiaries of the rising interest rate theme as it relates to a fundamental driver of industry returns.
Ultimately, XLF appears to be experiencing its own internal tug-of-war based on this bifurcation between sub-sectors that has caused it to drift aimlessly for the last six months.
The Bottom Line
The information presented above can be applicable to both broad-based indices and individual sector investing. Investors that own diversified equity ETFs need to be cognizant of the underlying asset allocation and sector positioning as it relates to future risk and returns.
Those that prefer to select more targeted ETFs may choose to shift their positions in order to take advantage of a specific theme or pair back on an overbought area of the market. Making small tactical changes of this nature can have a big impact on your performance and risk profile as we make our way into the second half of the year.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/3-sectors-to-watch-in-the-second-half-of-2015?post=68095