中国的经济危机开始蔓延

北京的困难已经演变为全球性。
                                                                                          Willie Pesek，彭博社，2015.7.15
新加坡是亚洲经济的晴雨表。它高度开放、依赖于贸易的经济通常会在经济困难即将登上全球舞台时发出信号。目前，新加坡的经济很明显地给出警告信号。

这个国家第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)下降了4.6%，几乎可以肯定是，这是由中国的经济衰退引发的。新加坡的经济困境可能标志着亚洲甚至是全球经济的一个危险拐点。

2008年全球金融危机之后，中国9%以上的增长在西方平复金融创伤的背景下实现的。但随着亚洲最大的经济体逐渐降温，从首尔到巴西利亚的官员发现他们没有一个可靠的拉动经济增长的引擎。美国和欧洲不均匀的经济复苏已经减缓了支撑大多数亚洲经济体，包括日本的出口。中国现在的衰退可能会造成亚洲制造业的逆转。

摩根士丹利的Ruchir Sharma 警告说，“下一个全球经济衰退将由中国引起。”平衡数据，包括新加坡突然转向衰退，表明中国不会接近今年7%的增长目标。

上海的日内交易者庆祝本周发布的报告：中国六月份经济增长2.1%；更有趣的数据是，中国的进口下降6.7%。这就解释了新加坡制造业较前三个月惊人地下降了14%。新加坡输出到中国的非石油产品同样不容乐观，二、四、五月份分别下降了22.7%、5.1%以及4.3%。

随着新加坡的经济自从2012年第三季度面临最大收缩，它的政府需要迅速采取行动。这可能是另外一个令人惊喜的货币宽松政策（央行一月份施行了一次）。财政刺激也是必要的。

“全球前景仍具有挑战性，将会远不及预期”。美银美林银行的经济学家Hak Bin Chua四月份之前如是说道。“中国的经济放缓，希腊危机和周边的东南亚国家包括印尼、泰国、马来西亚等国家的增长疲弱可能会抑制全球的经济增长”。

中国作为亚洲主要的客户，它的经济放缓将会很大范围的凸显。目前，该地区的许多投资者仍然看好北京促进GDP增长、拯救股市的努力。即使这些天来自中国的好消息也是令人担忧的。6月信贷激增(3000亿美元)，为自今年1月以来数量最大的月份。虽然这在短期内有助于经济的稳定，但同时也助涨了上海和深圳的债务泡沫。

中国正面临另一个问题:收益递减。它的刺激措施规模、范围和频率自2008年全球危机以来呈指数增长。中国越是努力保持GDP高于5%的增速，它就会给全球金融体系带来越大的风险。毕竟，中国的援助开始以超现实的方式重复。今年股票大涨是为了缓解七年来大举借债的负面影响。现在，随着北京给股票大跌驻底，它应该再次救助之前的救助对象。

北京现在的麻烦是世界上。2010年，它大约占全球经济增长的23%。到2014年底,这一比例至少上升到38%。中国的消费对于大宗商品市场经济增长的贡献远高于从印度尼西亚到南非等国家。Sharma告诉彭博社，“在未来的几年中，中国可能是全球经济的最脆弱之处。”

他补充说,中国可能将全球经济增长下拉2%，这是许多人认为的世界经济衰退临界点。如果新加坡有任何经验，它可能已经在实施过程中。

©2015彭博社观点

China’s economic troubles are starting to spread
Beijing’s troubles are now the world’s.
Willie Pesek, Bloomberg | 15 July 2015 01:30
Singapore is the closest thing Asia has to an economic barometer. Its highly open, trade-reliant economy usually signals when trouble is approaching the global stage. And at the moment, Singapore is flashing clear warning signs.
The city-state’s gross domestic product plunged 4.6% last quarter, a downturn almost certainly triggered by China. Singapore’s plight may mark a dangerous inflection point not just for Asia, but for the entire global economy.
After the 2008 global crisis, China’s 9%-plus growth picked up the slack from a West licking its financial wounds. But as Asia’s biggest economy cools, officials from Seoul to Brasilia are finding themselves without a reliable growth engine. Uneven recoveries in the U.S. and Europe have already slowed the exports that power most Asian economies, including Japan. China’s downturn could now throw Asian manufacturing into reverse.
Morgan Stanley’s Ruchir Sharma warns that “the next global recession will be made by China.” The balance of data — including Singapore’s abrupt shift toward recession — suggests China isn’t growing anywhere near this year’s 7% target.
Shanghai’s day traders celebrated this week’s news that Chinese exports rose 2.1% in June. The more interesting figure, though, was the 6.7% decline in Chinese imports. That helps explain the stunning 14% drop in Singaporean manufacturing from the previous three months. The same goes for Singapore’s non-oil exports to China, which fell 4.3% in May, 5.1% in April and plunged 22.7% in February.
With Singapore’s economy contracting the most since the third quarter of 2012, its government has to act fast. It may be time for another surprise monetary easing (the central bank last engineered one in January). Fiscal stimulus may also be necessary.
“The global outlook remains challenging and far less positive than the picture” four months ago, says economist Hak Bin Chua of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “China’s slowdown, the Greece crisis and weaker growth in the immediate neighborhood of southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, will likely dampen growth.”
The downturn in China, Asia’s main customer, will loom especially large. For now, many investors in the region are still bullish about Beijing’s efforts to gin up both GDP and stocks. But even the good news on China these days is worrisome. Take its surge in credit growth in June ($300 billion), the most since January. While it’s helping to stabilize the economy in the short run, it’s also inflating China’s debt bubble in sync with its asset bubbles in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
China is facing another problem: diminishing returns. Its stimulus efforts have grown exponentially in size, scope and frequency since the 2008 global crisis. The more China strains to keep GDP growth above the 5% range, the more it’s putting the global financial system at risk. China’s bailouts, after all, are beginning to overlap in surreal ways. This year’s massive stock rally was meant to ease the fallout from a seven- year borrowing binge. Now, as Beijing puts a floor under plunging shares, it’s effectively bailing out its previous bailout.
Beijing’s troubles are now the world’s. In 2010, it accounted for roughly 23% of global growth. By the end of 2014, that share had surged to at least 38%. China punches even further above its weight in the commodity markets that countries from Indonesia to South Africa rely on for growth. “Over the next couple of years,” Sharma told Bloomberg News, “China is likely to be the biggest source of vulnerability for the global economy.”
China, he adds, could drag global growth below 2%, a threshold many would agree is equivalent to a world recession. If Singapore is any guide, it may already be under way.
©2015 Bloomberg View

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.moneyweb.co.za/moneyweb-opinion/soapbox/chinas-economic-troubles-are-starting-to-spread/