人民币贬值

Matthew Johnston 

仅仅是一周之前中国人民银行用三次人民币连续的贬值震惊了市场，使人民币价值下降3%。自从2005年以来，人民币相对于美元价值上升了33%，8月11日的贬值是20年来的幅度最大的一次。虽然此举是意想不到的而且许多人相信此举是中国为了刺激出口进行的绝望的尝试，中国人民银行声称贬值是面向更加以市场为源头的经济改革的一部分。贬值规模的大小似乎符合市场基本面，因此至少在现在，中国人民银行的声明是可以相信的。

惊慌失措的市场
在10多年相对于美元的稳定升值后，投资者已经习惯于人民币的稳定和不断增长的价值。因此，与有些汇率几天内可能发生的两位数的变化相比，一个微不足道的3%多一点的变化就使投资者十分慌乱。

美国股票市场，包括道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500平均指数和纳斯达克，欧洲和拉丁美洲市场都因此次贬值而下跌。尽管一些人认为此举是中国经济表现低于预期的信号并且此举是想让其出口更有吸引力，但是中国人民银行却指出贬值是由其他因素驱动的。

贬值：仅仅是自由市场改革政策的结果
中国国家主席习近平从他两年前上台时就承诺中国政府将致力于使经济更加以市场为导向。这和中国决定成为国际货币基金组织特别提款权货币一起使中国人民银行声称贬值是允许市场在决定人民币价值时起更工具性作用措施的结果更容易使人相信。康奈尔大学的一个教授表示此举有助于中国获得特别提款权货币地位并声称这和中国“缓慢但是稳定”的以市场为导向的改革吻合。

国际货币基金组织每五年重新评估其特别提款权货币篮子构成，上一次是在2010年。那次人民币因为不能“自由使用”被拒绝，但是这次声称是由于市场为源头的改革的贬值受到世界货币基金组织的欢迎，它已经考虑把人民币划进特别提款权篮子。虽然做出了欢迎，国际货币基金组织也强调中国仍需做更多努力并愿意进行“自由浮动汇率。”

许多人怀疑中国的承诺，认为新的汇率改革政策并没有发生改变而且还是类似的“管理的浮动”，贬值只是另一个人工干预而且人民币的价值将继续会被中国人民银行密切监事和管理。持怀疑态度的人认为此举是中国为了提高其出口进行汇率操纵的进一步证据。

贬值与市场基本面保持一致
贬值仅仅几天后数据显示中国的出口量大幅下降，许多人认为中国坚持说贬值是市场导向改革驱动的仅仅是一个借口。中国政府声称七月份出口比上年下降83%。新闻成为利率下调和财务刺激没有达到希望效果的证据，许多人解释贬值是为了是刺激中国萧条的经济的绝望的尝试并防止出口进一步下滑。

美国政府非常愤怒，美国政界人士许多年来一直声称中国以牺牲美国出口商为代价人为控制低汇率。许多人认为中国的货币贬值是货币战争开始的信号并将加剧贸易紧张。虽然低价值人民币能给中国一定程度的优势，最近的举措成为中国放弃这一想法的原因，或许他们的声明是可信的。

虽然此次贬值是过去20年中幅度最大的，人民币在贸易加权角度来说还是比一年前强劲。在过去20多年中，人民币相对于其他主要货币都在升值。这包括相对于美元的升值。从本质上来说，中国的政策允许市场决定人民币运动的走向从而限制其升值的速率。但是，随着中国经济在最近几年大幅度放缓而美国经济相对表现较好，人民币的继续升值已经不再符合市场基本面。

了解基本面使你能了解中国人民银行进行的小幅度贬值是一个必要的调整而不是以邻为壑的汇率操纵。虽然许多美国政界人士可能会抱怨，中国实际上正在允许市场决定人民币的价值。只要在未来人民没有大幅度价值下降，那么中国人民银行就不会自食其言。

总结
尽管市场非常吃惊并且被指责人为操纵汇率，中国对最近的人民币贬值有很好的理由。中国经济增长放缓和美元走强使人民币贬值和市场基本面温和。不去管中国的出口可能从人民币贬值中获得推动的事实，此举与中国政府允许市场在决定经济结果时的更大作用的承诺吻合。

The Chinese Devaluation of the Yuan
By Matthew Johnston | September 02, 2015 

Just over one week ago the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised markets with three consecutive devaluations of the yuan, knocking over 3% off its value. Since 2005, China’s currency has appreciated 33% against the US dollar and the first devaluation on August 11 marked the largest single drop in 20 years. While the move was unexpected and believed by many to be a desperate attempt by China to boost exports in support of an economy that is growing at its slowest rate in a quarter century, the PBOC claims that the devaluation is all part of its reforms to move towards a more market-oriented economy. The relative size of the devaluation appears to be in line with market fundamentals and thus, at least for now, the PBOC’s claims can be believed.

Surprised Markets
After a decade of a steady appreciation against the US dollar, investors had become accustomed to the stability and growing strength of the yuan. Thus, while a somewhat insignificant change compared to exchange rates that can sometimes move double-digit percentages over several days, the more than 3% drop had investors rattled.

U.S. stock markets, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as well as European and Latin American markets fell in response to the devaluation. While some argue that the move is a sign that China’s economy is performing worse than expected and the move is an attempt to make exports more attractive, the PBOC indicated that the devaluation was motivated by other factors.

Devaluation: Just the Result of Free-Market Reform Policies
China’s president Xi Jinping has pledged the government’s commitment to reforming China’s economy in a more market-oriented direction ever since he first took office over two years ago. That and the fact that China is determined to be included in the IMF’s special drawing rights (SDR) basket of reserve currencies makes the POBC’s claim that the devaluation was the result of measures taken to allow the market to have a more instrumental role in determining the yuan’s value more believable. One professor at Cornell University indicated that the move should help China’s case for SDR reserve currency status and claimed that it was also consistent with China’s “slow but steady” market-oriented reforms.

The IMF re-evaluates the currency composition of its SDR basket every five years, the last time being in 2010. At that time the yuan was rejected on the basis that it was not “freely usable,” but the devaluation, supported by the claim that it was done in the name of market-oriented reforms is being welcomed by the IMF as it gets set to consider the yuan’s inclusion. But despite this welcomed response, the IMF has stressed that China will still have to do more and be willing to progress towards a “freely floating exchange rate.”

Many are skeptical of China’s commitment, arguing that the new exchange-rate policy really hasn’t changed and is still akin to a “managed float;” the devaluation is just another intervention and the yuan’s value will continue to be closely monitored and managed by the PBOC. The skeptics believe that the move was further evidence of China’s continued exchange-rate manipulation in order to boost its sputtering exports. (See also: 5 Economic Effects Of Country Liberalization.)

Devaluation Consistent with Market Fundamentals
With the devaluation occurring just days after data showed a sharp fall in China’s exports, many believe that China's insistance that the move was motivated by market-oriented reforms is just a convenient excuse. The Chinese government claimed that its exports had fallen 8.3% in July from the previous year. As the news is evidence that its interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus were not as effective as hoped, many interpret the devaluation as a desperate attempt to stimulate China's sluggish economy and keep exports from falling further.

Washington was especially incensed, as U.S. politicians have been claiming for years that China has kept its currency artificially low at the expense of American exporters. Some believe that China’s devaluation of the yuan is just the beginning of a currency war that could lead to increasing trade tensions. Despite the fact that a lower valued yuan does give China somewhat of a competitive advantage, China has readily dismissed the idea that this was the reason for the recent move, and perhaps there are reasons that they can be believed.

While the drop in the value of the yuan was the largest in 20 years, the yuan is still stronger than it was only a year ago in trade-weighted terms. Over the past 20 years, the yuan has been appreciating relative to nearly every other major currency. This includes appreciation against the US dollar. Essentially, China’s policy has allowed the market to determine the direction of the yuan’s movement while restricting the rate at which it appreciates. But, as China’s economy has slowed significantly in the last number of years while the U.S. economy has done relatively better, a continued rise in the yuan’s value no longer aligns with market fundamentals.

Understanding the market fundamentals allows one to see the small devaluation by the PBOC as a necessary adjustment rather than a beggar-thy-neighbor manipulation of the exchange-rate. While many American politicians may grumble, China is actually doing what the U.S. has prodded it to do for years—allow the market to determine the yuan’s value. So long as there are no major declines in the yuan’s value going forward it appears that the PBOC can be taken at its word. (For more, see: What Causes A Currency Crisis?)

The Bottom Line
Despite surprising markets and being critiqued for exchange-rate manipulation, China has a good reason for the recent devaluation of the yuan. With slower growth in China and a strengthening US dollar, allowing the yuan to depreciate is in line with market fundamentals. Regardless of the fact that China’s exports may get a boost from the deprecating yuan, the move is consistent with the Chinese government’s commitment to let the market play a greater role in determining economic outcomes.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/090215/chinese-devalua