中国经济对美国股票市场的影响

 Roger Wohlner

最近在每国股票市场波动中的一个常见新闻是中国经济对我们的影响。虽然现在全球金融市场和经济体互相交织不足为奇，但是中国庞大的规模和影响却是一个特例。

下面是一些就金融顾问们询问中国市场对他们客户的影响的解释。

庞大的规模

中国是即美国之后的世界第二大经济体。它不仅仅和美国有贸易和业务关系，而且和全球许多国家和地区都有业务往来。

因为中国庞大人口规模、巨大消费市场和工业基础，中国也是所有产品、服务和原材料销售者的目的地。

美国公司在那里进行业务

许多美国大公司在中国都有业务。这些公司的名单包括苹果、大众汽车、波音、 卡特彼勒、百胜等等。事实上，中国是美国之后的苹果第二大市场而且百胜的肯德基品牌在那里非常流行。根据高盛集团的数据该公司整体收益的52%来自中国。

近期中国汇率下调的决定给苹果和百胜带来重创，平均每天股价下跌5%。

像通用和福特这样的汽车制造商会逐渐因货币贬值的影响感觉到消费者的减少。这将影响他们的全球销售、盈利最终影响股票价格。通用汽车30%的销售收入来自中国，任何形势的放缓都会对他们产生巨大的影响。

卡特彼勒的CEO在今年早些时候已经预测在中国销售额的下降。他们的股票价格自发行以来从52周的高点大约下跌了30%。该公司的销售额在中国连续三年成两位数的下跌。

中国不断增长的中产阶级曾经帮助许多消费品公司在那里取得业绩。任何经济放缓的声明都会影响利润甚至股价。这和人民币贬值一起使进口货物价格更加昂贵。

全球影响

中国的增长不仅帮助美国公司发展，其影响是全球性的。当前中国经济增长放缓使其对原材料和原油的需求下跌，这限制了全球大宗商品的价格。这对大幅依赖这一行业的公司和国家造成巨大伤害。

虽然美国没有像世界其他国家那样受到直接影响，但是一些美国公司还是受到影响，尤其是一些能源公司。例如，美孚的股价已经从52周的高点98美元下跌到现在的72美元。雪弗龙的股价从52周高点接近126美元下跌到现在75美元左右。

中国是许多国家产品和服务的最大买家。例如智利四分之三的出口到中国。出口总计占智利经济的10%。虽然智利的经济放缓可能不够直接影响我们的股票市场，但是如果世界其他地方都受到中国经济放缓影响那么我们的经济和股市最终也会有反映。

中国对股市下跌的反映

中国仍然是一个努力向西方开放股票市场的共产主义政府驱动经济，当它觉得有必要的时候会有决心和资本干预股市。例子：中国共产党应对低迷的股市和经济增长花费约2350亿美元购买股票、提升价格、以及限制出售股票(如禁止卖空)。

因此，中国市场和他们经济的风险可能对美国和其他国家在那里有业务的也意味着相同的风险。中国当前的经济增长放缓，相对封闭的金融市场和其他因素使我们股票市场的投资者感到恐惧并且是2015年夏末市场波动的主要原因。

对美国投资者的影响

在过去，美国投资者投资中国股票需要冒险。例如富达中国区的描述：“投资寻求长期资本增长。基金至少投资80%在香港、台湾和中国发行者的证券和其他和中国经济紧密联系的资产。”

正如上面谈到的中国经济对全球股票市场的影响，包括对我们的影响，是巨大的和深远的。许多美国公司的大量销售都依赖中国。许多美国公司在中国经营的规模巨大而且可能是指数的重要组成部分。他们的表现将影响美国投资者持有的共同基金和ETF。

总结

在全球经济中，美国股票市场容易受到全球经济事件的影响。中国作为全球第二大经济体，对许多美国跨行业大公司来说都是一个巨大的市场。中国经济任何形势的放缓都将对这些的收益和利润有巨大和深远的影响，并最终影响每国股票市场。

Making an Impact: China and the U.S. Stock Market

By Roger Wohlner   

A frequent financial headline surrounding the recent volatility in our stock market was the impact of China's economy on our own. While it should be no surprise that financial markets and economies around the globe are intertwined, China with its sheer size and impact is a special case.

Here are a few thoughts for financial advisors as they seek to explain China’s impact on our stock market to their clients.

Sheer Size

China is the world’s second largest economy behind the United States. Not only do they have trading and business relationships with the U.S. but operate on a global scale in many economies and countries.

China is also a major market for anyone selling goods, services and raw materials as it has the world's largest population and an extremely large consumer and industrial base. 

U.S. Companies Doing Business There

Many major U.S. companies are doing business with or in China. The list of major corporations includes Apple Inc. (AAPL), General Motors Co. (GM), Boeing Co. (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) and many more. In fact, China is Apple's second largest market after the U.S. and Yum!'s KFC brand is very popular there. According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) the company derives 52% of its overall revenue from China.

A recent decision by China to devalue its currency hit both Apple and Yum! Brands hard with one day drops in their stock price of about 5% each. 

Auto makers like GM and Ford Motor Co. (F) will feel any slowdown in consumer spending and the impact of the currency devaluation in their sales. This could impact their worldwide sales, their profitability and ultimately their stock price. About 30% of GM’s sales come from China so any slowdown would have a major impact on their bottom line.

Caterpillar’s CEO had already forecast a sales decline in China earlier in the year. Their stock is down some 30% from its 52-week high as of publication. The company’s sales in China are down by double digits for the third straight year.

China’s rising middle class has helped many consumer products companies build sales there. Any pronounced slowdown will hurt profit and likely impact stock price. This and the devaluation of the Chinese currency makes imported goods more expensive for Chinese consumers. Some other examples of consumer products companies dependent upon China and the region for a high percentage of their sales include:

•LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton ADR (LVMUY) earns 25% of its revenue from China and other parts of Asia excluding Japan.

•Burberry Group PLC (BURBY) earns 30% of its sales from the region.

•Prada SpA ADR (PRDSY) earns 20% of its sales in the China region.

Global Impact

China’s growth has not only helped U.S. companies prosper but also many in Europe, elsewhere in Asia and Australia and elsewhere. The current slowdown has dampened China’s demand for raw materials and oil which has served to depress commodity prices worldwide. This has hurt companies and nations who depend on this business for a significant portion of their economy.

Though the U.S. is not as directly impacted as others around the world, some U.S companies have felt the pain, especially those in the energy sector. For example Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has seen its stock price fall from its 52-week high of about $98 to about $72 as of the time of this writing. Likewise the stock of Chevron (CVX) fallen from its 52-week high of just under $126 to its current price of around $75.

For many countries China is the largest buyer of their goods and services. For example almost a quarter of Chile’s exports go to China. Exports account for about 10% of Chile’s economy about double that of the United Sates. While a slowdown in Chile may not directly impact our stock market if enough of the rest of the world feels the impact of a China slowdown the impact will eventually be felt by our economy and our stock market. 

China's Reaction to Falling Stocks

China is still a state-run communist country that is struggling to open its stock market to the west and has the will and checkbook to intervene when it feels it's necessary. Case in point: The Communist Party's response to flagging stocks and growth — to spend some $235 billion to buy shares and bolster prices, as well as impose limits on the sale of stocks (such as a ban on shorting) — was a swift and powerful response worthy of political and social unrest, much less the market's natural response to prevailing conditions. 

Therefore, the risks within China’s markets and their economy may carry parallel risk for U.S. and other western firms doing business there. China’s current economic slowdown, their less than open financial markets, and other factors are sending chills to investors in our stock markets and are a major contributing factor in the market volatility we’ve seen during the late summer of 2015. 

Implications for U.S. Investors

In the past, a U.S. investor might take a flyer on a fund that invested in Chinese stocks. For example the description of Fidelity China Region (FHKAX) reads:“The investment seeks long-term growth of capital. The fund normally invests at least 80% of assets in securities of Hong Kong, Taiwanese, and Chinese issuers and other investments that are tied economically to the China region.”

As discussed above the impact of China's economy upon the world’s stock markets, including ours, is vast and as we’ve seen over the past few weeks profound. More U.S. companies depend upon China for a significant amount of their sales. Also, many of the U.S. companies operating in China are large and may be significant components in indexes such as the S&P 500. The performance of their stock can impact mutual funds and ETFs held by U.S. investors. 

The Bottom Line

In a global economy, the U.S. stock markets are susceptible to world economic events. China, as the world’s second largest economy, is a huge market for many large U.S. companies across a variety of industries. Any slowdown in China’s economy that has a significant and widespread impact on the revenue and profit of these companies will have an impact on our stock market. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/professionals/092215/making-impact-china-and-us-stock-market.asp