现在投资大宗商品的三个原因

大宗商品的交易价格已经接近历史最低点。原油价格已经从一年前的100美元每桶左右下跌到了现在45美元左右。其他大宗商品的价格也低于近几年的最低价格。

 

铜的价格自2008年以来就没这么低过，每盎司的黄金价格从接近2000美元下跌到1100美元左右，是5年来的最低价格。追踪从金属到能源的大宗商品价格的高盛商品指数，达到了2007年之后的最低点，比去年同期下跌了大约43%。

 

投资者可以通过期货合约或者买入追踪大宗商品的ETF直接接触大宗商品。

 

价格低迷的一部分原因是更高效的生产和提取过程导致了供应过剩。随着中国经济的放缓，来自亚洲的需求下降也是一个因素。低迷的大宗商品价格可能引起警觉，或者能预示着一个为你的投资组合添加一个重要的资产类别的机会。这里是为什么大宗商品应该是全面的投资计划一部分的原因。

 

大宗商品可以成为通货膨胀的对冲

通货膨胀时所有物价水平上升，有效的降低货币价值。通常，某些大宗商品能对冲通胀，保证投资者的购买力。可储藏的大宗商品和贵金属在通胀时期表现都很好。然而其他大宗商品，和通胀没有联系不能对价格的上涨提供保护。消耗品、非储藏类大宗商品对冲通胀的能力很差。原油在20世纪70年代的通胀中起到了很好的对冲作用，在其他时间则被证明对冲通胀的能力很差。令人惊讶的是，咖啡被证明是美元很好的对冲。

 

在大萧条之后全球的通胀水平都很低。但是不可能永远都如此。如果未来通胀水平上升，持有贵金属或者咖啡期货可能是个不错的选择。

 

大宗商品可以使投资组合多样化

虽然一些大宗商品与通胀有关联，但是大多数表现出与传统的股票和债券很小的相关性。现在投资组合理论规定通过向现在资产添加低或者负相关的资产类别，投资者在减小风险的同时可以保持预期回报。一个理性的投资者在最大化预期回报的同时减小风险，关联性很低大宗商品和传统资产帮助实现这一目标。

 

人口统计学：增长的全球人口将会需要资源

全球人口已经接近75亿，而这些人每天都需要食品和能源。农业产品在现在的低价格下可能是个不错的投资。能源产品的选择越来越多，例如风能和太阳能等可再生资源，但是在可预见的未来石油仍然对许多国家来说是个更实惠的选择。人口增长的速度没有慢下来，这将给自然资源和粮食储备带来压力。

 

总结

在过去十年中大宗商品价格从来没这么低过。石油、金属和粮食等大宗商品随着全球经济开始动荡、亚洲需求下降而下跌。同时生产成本降低，供应开始增加。

 

不过，这也可能是投资者以低廉价格买入大宗商品的机会，因为这提供一个超过简单价格上升带来的好处。可储藏的大宗商品可以作为通货膨胀很好的对冲，同时大宗商品还以多样化投资组合降低风险而不用削减预期收益。判断任何市场的时机都是非常困难的，但是这些价格已经接近了多年未见的低点。

 

 

3 Reasons to Invest in Discounted Commodities 

 

By Adam Hayes, CFA | September 16, 2015    

 

Commodity prices are trading at near all-time lows. Crude oil has dropped from more than $100 a barrel a year ago to around $45 today. And the prices of several other commodities are also lower than they've been in years. 

 

The price of copper hasn't been this low since 2008 and the value an ounce of gold has dropped from nearly $2,000 to around $1,100, its lowest level in five years. The GSCI Index, which tracks the prices of commodities ranging from metals to energy, is trading at its lowest level since it was created in 2007, and is down almost 43% over the past twelve months.

 

Investors can get direct exposure to commodities via futures contracts or by buying ETF​s that track commodities. For example, the iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed (GSG) tracks the GSCI Index. 

Part of the reason for the depressed prices is that more efficient production and extraction processes have led to a glut. Decreased demand from Asia is also a factor, as the Chinese economy has begun to falter. Depressed commodity prices may be cause for caution, or they may signal a rare opportunity to add this important asset class to your portfolio. Here's why commodities can should be part of any well-rounded investment plan. 

 

Commodities Can Be a Hedge Against Inflation

Inflation is when the price level of all things rises, effectively making currency less valuable. Traditionally, certain commodities have been a hedge against inflation, protecting the purchasing power of an investor. Storable commodities such as metals (e.g. copper) and precious metals (e.g. gold, silver, palladium, etc.) have historically done well during times of inflation. Other commodities, however, have no correlation with inflation and will not protect against rising prices. Consumable, non-storable commodities such as food & agricultural products tend to be poor hedges against inflation. While oil was a good hedge against inflation during the oil crisis of the 1970s, it proved to be a poor hedge in other periods. Surprisingly, coffee has proven to be an effective hedge against a falling dollar.

 

Inflation levels have been quite low worldwide following the Great Recession. But that may not remain the case forever. If inflation picks up in the future, holding precious metals or coffee futures may be a bargain that will pay off.

 

Commodities Can Diversify Portfolios

While some commodities can show a correlation with inflation, most exhibit very little correlation with traditional stocks and bonds. Modern portfolio theory (MPT) stipulates that by adding asset classes with low or negative correlations to the existing assets, an investor can keep the same expected return for their portfolio while reducing its risk, as measured by the portfolio's standard deviation. A rational investor would choose to minimize risk while maximizing expected return, and the low correlation of commodities and traditional assets helps achieve this. 

 

Demographics: A Growing World Population Will Demand Resources

The global population is approaching 7.5 billion people, and those people will always need energy and food. Agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn and livestock might be a good investment at today's low prices. Energy production is increasingly turning to alternative, renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, but fossil fuels will remain a cheaper option for most of the world for the foreseeable future. The rate of population growth is not slowing down, and barring a global disaster, it will begin to put a strain on natural resources and food stocks alike.

 

The Bottom Line

Commodity prices have not been this low in over a decade. Everything from oil to metals to food commodities have fallen in price as the global economy has struggled to emerge from the Great Recession, demand from Asia has begun to falter. At the same time, supplies have increased with better and lower-cost production processes.

 

Still, this may be a unique buying opportunity for investors to snap up commodities at bargain prices, as they offer benefits beyond simple price appreciation. Storable commodities can serve as a good hedge against inflation, and commodities can also serve to diversify portfolios to reduce risk without sacrificing expected return. It's extremely difficult to time any market, but these prices are approaching lows they haven't seen in years. 

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091615/3-reasons-invest-discounted-commodities.asp