为什么欧元没能成为全球储备货币

当欧元初次登上世界金融舞台的时候，许多经济学家看好它，认为它将成为全球下一个储备货币。这种预测当时具有充分理由，因为当时结合起来的欧洲国家的经济强度足够挑战美元全球储备货币的地位。欧元很快变成全球第二重要的货币，但是2015年开始，它却没能取代美元的地位。其中原因包括流动性、欧盟的经济稳定性、主权债务问题、2008年金融危机和人民币的迅速崛起。

 

如何才能成为储备货币

要成为首要储备货币必须达到一些要求。首先该货币需要足够重要和坚挺以用于国际贸易和金融交易。其次，它需要有一个投资者信任的大的经济体和政府的支持。最后，该货币必须有相对稳定的汇兑价值，各国央行应持有大量的该货币。

 

流通性问题

欧元的总数量受到欧洲央行高利率政策和一些国家持续抵制欧洲央行资产标准和欧洲委员会监管的限制。简而言之，像德国和英国这样的主要欧盟成员国仍然不愿意放弃主权金融控制。只要欧盟成员国不能完全接受欧元，那么就会阻碍世界对欧元的信任。加上欧元区部分地区严重的通货紧缩，从实用的角度来看，简单的事实就是欧元作为主要贸易和金融交易货币在世界范围内流通不够充分。

 

欧盟的稳定性

第二个问题是欧盟整体经济的稳定性。欧盟的主权债务危机还在持续。通货紧缩和极低的经济增长率使欧盟一些国家的债务和GDP增长率变得更加糟糕。该问题从情况最差的希腊延伸到最好的德国，德国是欧盟最强经济体但是增长率持续下降。欧洲银行体系处于严重压力下，许多银行面临着资金不足的问题。

 

2008年金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机

从1999年推出到2008年金融危机，欧元兑美元持续上升，EUR/USD汇率直线上升接近1.60美元。但是2008年的金融危机几乎在一夜间改变了这个形势。在那之后欧元兑美元持续下跌，失去了接近三分之一的汇兑价值，到2015年，下降到1.10美元左右。大多数市场分析师预测欧元将会跌到与美元平价。

 

全球金融危机的严重程度实际上支撑了美元，维持美元的价值被视为避免全球经济进一步垮台的重要环节。简而言之，经济不稳定和不确定被视为不是改变已经确定的储备货币的好环境。为了遏制全球经济的下跌，美国需要能够卖出以万亿计的美国债务，如果美元失去了全球储备货币的地位这就不会发生。

 

欧元的厄运又因欧洲主权债务而加剧。这次危机进一步暴露了欧盟作为一个经济体的弱点，也进一步加大了例如德国这样繁荣经济体和西班牙和希腊这样拖后腿的经济体之间的仇视。欧元在德国进一步讨论退出欧元而重新使用德国马克的时候当然不会被加强。

 

人民币的崛起

绚丽的二十一世纪使中国经济崛起，其规模已经超过美国成为世界最大的经济体，这对欧元获得储备货币地位有负面影响。中国在国际经济中日渐显著的地位使其货币具备代替美元成为世界主要储备货币的地位。人民币在国际贸易中使用日渐增多并局部进入国际投资领域。中国正在迫使国际货币基金组织给予其特别提款权地位。

 

中国在世界范围内建立了十几个人民币结算银行。上海和香港股票市场的连接进一步促进了中国资本市场的发展。中国与许多主要贸易货币签订了汇兑协议，包括英格兰银行和加拿大银行，这将削弱欧元和美元储备货币地位。人民币现在是第二常用金融交易货币，排在欧元之前。

 

而且中国和日本一样，是世界上最大的外汇储备持有国，因此其货币选择将会对哪种货币成为储备货币产生巨大影响。在不远的将来，中国的将选择自己的货币而不是美元或者欧元。

 

Why the Euro Failed to Become the World's Reserve Currency 

 

By J.B. Maverick  

 

When the euro debuted on the world financial stage, many economic analysts touted it, over-optimistically as it turns out, as the world's next reserve currency. The prediction was reasonable enough, based on the notion the combined financial strength of virtually the whole of western Europe might be a powerful enough economic force to topple the U.S. dollar from its position as the world's reserve currency. The euro fairly quickly became the second most important currency in the world, but as of 2015, it has failed to supplant the U.S. dollar at the top of the world's monetary heap. There are several reasons for this including liquidity, financial stability of the European Union, sovereign debt problems, the financial crisis of 2008 and the rapid rise to prominence of the Chinese yuan.

 

What Makes a Good Reserve Currency

 

For a currency to serve as a primary reserve currency, it must meet a number of requirements. It must first be a currency perceived as significant and solid enough to be utilized widely in international trade and financial transactions beyond its issuing country. Secondly, it has to be supported by a large economy and a government in which international investors have confidence. Finally, the currency must be considered to have a relatively stable exchange value, to the point central banks are comfortable accumulating and holding the currency in large amounts.

 

Liquidity Problems

 

The total quantity of euros in circulation is limited by the European Central Bank's (ECB) hard-money policies and by continuing resistance by some nations to ECB capital standards and financial oversight by the European Commission. In short, major European Union (EU) members such as the United Kingdom and Germany remain reluctant to surrender sovereign financial control to the ECB. As long as major member states of the EU stop short of fully embracing the euro, this hampers worldwide reliance on its currency. Add to that serious deflation in parts of the eurozone, and the simple fact is there is not a sufficient amount of euros in worldwide circulation for it to, purely from a practical point of view, be used as the world's main trading and financial transaction currency.

 

Stability of the European Union

 

Linked to the first problem described above is the second, that of the overall economic stability of the European Union. The EU's sovereign debt crisis lingers on. Deflation and very low economic growth rates contribute to steadily worsen the debt-to-GDP ratios of many EU nations. The trouble extends from the worst point, Greece, all the way to the best point, Germany, which remains the strongest EU economy but is nonetheless seeing a weakening economic growth rate. The European banking system remains under unrelenting pressure, with many banks still seriously undercapitalized.

 

The 2008 Financial Crisis and the EU Sovereign Debt Crisis

 

From its introduction in 1999 up until the 2008 financial crisis, the euro followed a steady upward trajectory in value against the U.S. dollar, with the EUR/USD exchange rate rising all the way up to just under $1.60. But the 2008 financial crisis wrecked the euro's rise versus the dollar in almost an instant. The euro has been in steady decline versus the dollar since then, losing approximately a third of its exchange value, which by 2015, had fallen all the way back down to just above $1.10. The majority of currency market analysts are projecting the euro's further decline to par value with the U.S. dollar, and some analysts are even predicting both the euro and the EU will eventually collapse and be dissolved.

 

The severity of the global financial crisis in effect propped up the U.S. dollar, as the importance of maintaining the dollar's value was seen as critical to avoiding a more severe worldwide financial meltdown. In short, massive economic instability and uncertainty were seen as decidedly not the proper environments for making a fundamental change in the world's established reserve currency. To stem the global financial free fall, the United States needed to be able to sell trillions of dollars worth of U.S. debt, and that could not have occurred if the U.S. dollar lost its preeminent position as the world's reserve currency.

 

The ill fortunes of the euro were then compounded by the European sovereign debt crisis, which some analysts refer to as the sovereign debt crisis of 2011-2012, and some characterize as ongoing. This crisis further exposed the weakness of the EU as an economy, and also increased animosity between the more prosperous EU members such as Germany and the countries such as Greece and Spain whose economies seem to be perpetual drag on the overall European economy. The euro is certainly not strengthened by growing talk within Germany of abandoning the EU and returning to the deutsche mark.

 

The Rise of China and the Yuan

 

The meteoric 21st-century rise of the Chinese economy, which has overtaken the U.S. as the world's largest economy, has had a negative effect on the euro attaining any more substantial presence as a reserve currency. China's increased prominence in the world's economy is being accompanied by a push for its currency to be the one that replaces the U.S. dollar as the world's major reserve currency. The yuan is increasingly used in international trade and sought in international investment. China is pressuring the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to grant it the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) status accorded to recognized reserve currencies.

 

China has established more than a dozen yuan-clearing banks worldwide. Connections between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets have been fostered to stimulate further capital market development in China. China has signed currency-swap agreements with numerous central banks of its primary trading partners, including the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, thereby undercutting both the euro and the U.S. dollar as reserve currencies. The yuan is the second most-used currency in trade financing, ahead of the euro.

 

And China's cause is bolstered by the fact that it, along with Japan, is one of the world's largest holders of foreign exchange reserves, and therefore, its currency preferences have a major impact on what currencies can legitimately be considered reserve currencies. For the time being and presumably the foreseeable future, China's preference is for its own currency over the euro or the U.S. dollar.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100815/why-euro-failed-become-worlds-reserve-currency.asp