通胀对冲势头再起

过去几年中，发达国家居民消费价格基本持平或略有下降，这使得“通货膨胀”这个词读起来有些奇怪。美国居民消费价格自去年五月以来，已连续下降12个月，随后基本保持平稳状态，而日本全年的通货膨胀则保持在1%以内。欧洲居民消费价格自2014年12月起，连续四个月下降，随后保持平稳状态。但瑞士信贷银行指出，通货膨胀的风险正在增加，增长速度如此之快，一些投资者甚至打算重新投资通胀相关的证券。 

美国通过两组数据来计算通胀预期，其一为平准通货膨胀率，另一为十年期国债收益及十年期通货膨胀保值债券 (TIPS) 的差额，而通胀预期在七月至九月之间稳步下降，在九月底又迅速反弹。油价是导致通胀预期下跌的主要因素。四月油价稳定在60美元附近，而在七月开始下跌。同样在七月，中国也对通胀预期产生了影响，因为中国股市崩盘使得中国经济放缓加剧。

虽然十年期平准通货膨胀率自9月29日的1.39%下降至10月7日的1.55%，瑞士信贷私人银行和财富管理投资委员会却认为该数据远低于央行的通胀目标。此外，导致通胀减少的两大因素已经开始发力。瑞士信贷能源分析家认为，2016年油价将趋于稳定甚至略有回升，而私人银行及财富管理(PBWM)部门对中国抱有乐观的看法。银行分析家相信，政府降息、降低购房首付比例、减少机动车税等激励措施有助于平稳经济。随着经济回暖，钢铁等金属的需求也会增加，这将成为大宗商品价格的强心剂。

成熟市场的增长已趋于稳定并将长期保持，很有可能在2016年出现通胀回升的情况。欧洲和日本采取的量化宽松政策在本质上就有通货膨胀倾向，而发达国家的中央银行都希望实际的通胀水平与通胀目标之间的差距越小越好。在欧洲和日本，消费引领的经济复苏刚刚起步，而美国的消费性开支以足够强大。持续增长的房价给有房的美国人带来富足感，这使得收银机刷刷地响个不停。瑞士信贷的经济学家预测， 美国2015年0.1%的年均通货膨胀将在2016年上升到1.9%，欧洲将从0.1%上升到1.0%，英国将从0.1%上升到1.2%。不出意料，日本仍是个例外，其通胀率将从0.9%上升到1.0%。

随着消费价格的不断上涨，通胀相关的政府债券突然变得炙手可热。顾名思义，通胀相关的债券与通货膨胀指数债券的票面价值和名义价值有关，这使得债券在不断地通胀中得以保值。另一方面，通货紧缩会同时降低债券票面价值和名义价值。因此，在买卖债券时都有风险。

Time to Dust Off that Inflation Hedge

Given that consumer prices have either moved lower or essentially stayed put in the developed world for much of the past year, the word inflation does feel a little strange on the tongue. U.S. consumer prices declined through the 12 months ended in May and have pretty much flatlined since, while Japanese inflation has stayed under 1 percent all year. After falling for four consecutive months, starting in December 2014, European consumer prices have stayed where they are as well. But Credit Suisse believes inflation risks are growing – so much so that investors may want to revisit inflation-linked bonds.  

Inflation expectations in the U.S., as measured by the breakeven inflation rate, or the difference between the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), were on a steady downward course between early July and late September, but they have picked up again since. Oil prices played a major part in that decline. While they seemed to stabilize in the $60-range in April, they began falling again in July. China concerns began to weigh on inflation expectations the same month, as the country’s stock market crash threatened to exacerbate its ongoing economic slowdown.  

While the 10-year US breakeven rate has risen from 1.39 percent on September 29 to 1.55 percent on October 7, Credit Suisse’s Private Banking and Wealth Management’s Investment Committee believes these expectations are too modest compared to the central banks’ inflation targets. In addition, two major weights holding inflation down are starting to lift. Credit Suisse’s energy analysts expect oil prices to stabilize and even begin rising again in 2016, while the Private Banking & Wealth Management (PBWM) division has a relatively upbeat view on China. The bank’s analysts believe that the government’s stimulus measures – lower interest rates, property minimum down-payments, and reduced car taxes among them – will help the economy to stabilize. As it works its way back up to speed, demand for more steel and other metals should give commodity prices a shot in the arm.  

The developed markets, where growth has been steady and is expected to remain so, are particularly likely to see inflation pick up in 2016. The quantitative easing measures Europe and Japan have implemented are inherently inflationary, and central banks in the developed world have all made it clear that they hope to push actual inflation levels closer to their target rates. Consumer-led recoveries in both Europe and Japan are on solid footing, while U.S., consumer spending has been strong. Rising home values are also making American households feel wealthier, which should help keep retail cash registers chiming. Credit Suisse’s economists predict that average annual inflation will rise from 0.1 percent in 2015 to 1.9 percent in 2016 in the U.S., from 0.1 percent to 1.0 percent in Europe, from 0.1 percent to 1.2 percent in the United Kingdom. As is often the case, Japan is an exception, with inflation expected to remain steadier at 0.9 percent this year and 1.0 percent next.  

With prices marching upward for a change, inflation-linked government bonds suddenly look like a more attractive investment than their nominal cousins. As the name implies, inflation-linked bonds link both the coupon and nominal value of the bond to an inflation index, which preserves value during times of rising inflation. On the other hand, deflation reduces both the coupon and nominal value of the bonds. Since that risk seems to be on its way out, bonds that hold their value in the face of rising prices are likely on their way in.  

文章翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.thefinancialist.com/time-to-dust-off-that-inflation-hedge/#sthash.AVPjUAYL.dpuf