现在是投资加拿大股票的好时机吗？ - 兄弟财经外汇返佣十七年信誉保障

Evan Tarver 2015年10月15日

加拿大经济自2015年出现下降趋势以来陷入了危机。现在一加元大约兑换75美分，而且大型机构投资者已经停止投资加拿大以能源为重点的股票市场，而是投资其他地区的能源、基本金属、黄金和木材。

加拿大经济在2015年的糟糕表现使多伦多的基准S&P / TSX综合指数下跌了大概11%。在同时，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌2.3%，标准普尔500指数持平而纳斯达克综合指数上升了7.4%。

然而，买入的最好时机通常是别人都在其他地方投资的时候，现在可能是投资加拿大股票市场的好时机。加拿大已经出现了下半年反弹的趋势，这也可能引起其他投资者的注意。

投资加拿大非能源股票

所有投资者都离开大宗商品和加拿大市场，这对加拿大大宗商品丰富的经济来说是个双重打击。大宗商品糟糕的表现反映出中国经济的放缓，加拿大重新把关注点从工厂出口放到国内商品和服务的消费上。这一转变损害了国际大宗商品需求。

这给加拿大经济带来间接伤害。许多大型公司受到加拿大宏观对大宗商品依赖的伤害，导致人们恐慌地卖出他们持有的股票。这使卖空降低表现良好公司的股票价格并且为那些寻求在未来三五年实现资本盈利的投资者提供了一个良好的入场点。

加拿大经济将反弹

得益于美元的强势，加拿大的整体经济未来将增长。许多人相信加拿大股票市场将在2015年第三季度回归正轨并且现在逐渐跟随美国经济增长的脚步。

然而重要的是投资仅仅是非能源相关股票。这一类型公司包括埃德蒙顿的公司，如 Stantec、加拿大西部银行、AutoCanada和Home Capital。

加拿大2015年8月的GDP增长好于预期。世界经济论坛把加拿大的银行连续八年评为世界上最安全的银行。据预测加拿大经济将继续在十月处于低谷并且在十一月和十二月反弹。

近期的不佳表现预期将在2015年结束，由于加拿大经济的低迷和对原油价格崩盘的担忧将使房产市场成为新贵。加拿大股票的卖空自今年夏天开始稳定增长，现在处于自2014年夏天以来的最高水平。

加拿大经济指标在2015年下半年持续超出预期。对于能源板块的恐慌也已经基本平息，许多分析人士认为油价低迷的时间已经过长，并且将会突然上升。

让我们来看一下加拿大的金融板块，这是人们回归市场时首先反弹的板块。这些优质股票被预测在今年之前将引领多伦多证交所的反弹。

不动产投资信托公司是另一个能引领多伦多证交所反弹的板块。这些公司的估值今年持续下降且远低于历史平均值，这提供了一个很好的入场点。

然而，据预测标准普尔500的表现在很长的一段时间仍将好于多伦多证交所。投资者不应过分看好加拿大股票。

Is Now the Right Time to Buy Canadian Stocks?

By Evan Tarver | October 15, 2015

The Canadian economy has struggled to emerge from the country's 2015 downturn. The loonie is currently sitting around 75 U.S. cents, and large institutional investors have stopped investing in Canada's resource-heavy stock market, looking elsewhere for investments in energy, base metals, gold and lumber.

Canada's economic performance in 2015 has caused Toronto's benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index to decline by roughly 11%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down just 2.3%, the S&P 500 Index is flat and the NASDAQ Composite Index is up 7.4% over the same period.

However, the best time to buy is normally when people are investing elsewhere, and it may be time to invest in the Canadian stock market. Canada is beginning to show signs of a second-half rebound, and it's possible to get in before other investors notice.

Investing in Non-Resource Canadian Stocks

Top-down investors are moving away from commodities and Canada; with Canada's commodity-rich economy, this hurts twice as bad. The poor performance of commodities reflects the slowdown of the Chinese economy as it refocuses itself from factory exports to the domestic consumption of goods and services. This transition has hurt global demand for commodities.

This has led to collateral damage in Canada's economy. There are numerous situations where strong companies are hurt by Canada's macro dependence on commodities and resources, causing people to panic and get out of positions they shouldn't. These sell-offs lower the price of otherwise good companies and provide a good entry point for investors looking to realize capital gains in the next three to five years.

It's important, however, to invest only in non-resource-related stocks. Examples of these types of stock include Edmonton-based firms, such as Stantec, Canadian Western Bank, AutoCanada, and Home Capital, a Toronto-based mortgage lender.

The Canadian Economy Is Poised to Rebound

The overall Canadian economy should see some future growth, benefiting from the strong U.S. dollar. Many believe that the Canadian stock market corrected itself in the third quarter of 2015 and that it should now be increasingly correlated with the rising U.S. economy.

Canada reported better than expected gross domestic product (GDP) growth in August 2015. The World Economic Forum ranked Canada's banks as the world's safest for the eighth year in a row. It's expected that Canada will continue to bottom out through October and bounce back in November and December.

The recent underperformance, expected to end in 2015, has been due to Canada's slumping economy and fears over what crashing oil prices will do to the country's upstart housing market. Short interest in Canadian stocks has been increasing steadily this year and is now at its highest level since the summer of 2014.

Canada's economic indicators are consistently beating expectations in the second half of 2015. Much of the panic over the energy sector has also subsided, with most analysts now seeing oil prices as "low for longer," which is a view that benefits energy companies if oil prices surprise to the upside.

Start looking at the Canadian financial sector, which is the first sector to bounce back when people come back to the market. These quality stocks and stocks in the defense trade are expected to lead to a rally of the TSX prior to the end of the year.

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) is another space that could help lead to a rally of the TSX. Valuations have steadily declined this year and are firmly below historical averages, providing a good entry point.

However, it's still expected that the S&P 500 will continue to beat the TSX in the long term. Investors should not be overly bullish on Canadian stocks.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/101515/now-right-time-buy-canadian-stocks.asp