房地产终将复苏

房地产板块成为了引领美国走出经济困局的主力。美联储主席为了走出金融危机放宽了货币政策，加之房贷需求的增加，房地产市场将会对利率产生极大的影响。在2007-2008年的金融危机之后，房地产市场所扮演的角色已经发生了转变。事实上，住宅市场的增长比最保守的预期还要差。在金融危机之后的很多年里，即使利率接近于零，也无法改变房地产市场给美国经济拖后腿的状况。但是这种情况正在发生变化。 

房地产市场复苏如此之慢主要归咎于引发金融危机的房地产泡沫。在21世纪00年代中期，很多人买不起房子只好去贷款，而宽松的监管政策和极易申请的贷款导致房价不断攀升，这便刺激了一波又一波的投机者，他们买房不是为了居住，而是为了转手卖掉赚差价。

随着房地产泡沫逐渐膨胀，住房投资比例已经超过了1947年以来的平均水平4.7%，在2005年已达到GDP的6.6%。随后泡沫破裂，该比例在2010年降至GDP的2.4%。在2015年，其数值为3.3%，仍低于历史水平。

而这阻碍复苏的最大障碍也开始有所好转，瑞士信贷经济学家 Dana Saporta 和 Xiao Cui 在最近的报告中指出：“房地产阻力终于减少了”。阻力有三重：低房价、资不抵债型房贷及信用标准。首先，房价自2011年的低点已上涨了20%。就资不抵债型房贷而言，负资产人群已从2012年末的22%下降至2015年初的10%。房屋短售及止赎房屋销售等“困境”销售的比例已从2010-2011年的30%下降至六月的10%。 

五月的数据进一步证实了房地产板块的复苏。现房的年化销售额为535万，较四月增加了5.1%，是2009年以来涨幅最大的一次。其中首次购房者的比例是2012年9月以来的最高值，较4月上涨了30%。不断改善的就业市场起到了至关重要的作用，工作岗位的增加意味着更多人，尤其是更多年轻人有钱买房了。 

按揭贷款的标准依旧十分严格，但信用供给量却有明显提高。这使得联邦住房管理局在一月降低了抵押贷款的保费，房利美、房地美等政府机构也将政府贷款的首付降至3%。Saporta 和 Cui 表示，房地产同整体经济活动之间的关系想要恢复“正常”仍需要几年的时间，但至少在向着正确的方向转变。

Finally, Housing Recovers

The way things used to work, the housing sector was typically the one to lead the United States out of economic hard times. That’s because central bankers tend to loosen monetary policy coming out of a recession, and mortgage demand – and thus, the health of the housing market – is particularly sensitive to interest rates. But the sector didn’t play its usual role after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. In fact, it has grown more slowly than even the most conservative expectations. For many of the post-crisis years, even with interest rates pinned at zero, housing has actually been a drag on the U.S. economy. But all that is starting to change.

The long wait for a true recovery in the housing market owes much to the nature of the housing bubble that led to the crisis. In the mid-2000s, individuals who couldn’t afford to purchase a home were able to do so anyway due to a combination of lax regulation and easily accessible credit. As a result, home prices climbed at a dizzying pace, spurring wave after wave of speculation in which ordinary people bought homes not to live in, but to flip for a hefty profit.

As the housing bubble inflated, residential investment’s share of the overall economy greatly surpassed its post-1947 average of 4.7 percent, rising to a high of 6.6 percent of GDP in 2005. And then it dive-bombed, to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2010. In 2015, it’s still well below historical levels at 3.3 percent. When the bubble burst, household wealth took an enormous hit, as many Americans had a great deal of their total net worth tied up in residential real estate. Former Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin put it this way: the recession “was worse and the recovery has been weaker” because of “how hard lower- and middle-income households were hit” by the housing crisis.

Nevertheless, the biggest impediments to recovery are finally changing for the better, write Credit Suisse economists Dana Saporta and Xiao Cui in a recent report entitled, “Housing Headwinds Diminishing at Last.” The headwinds are threefold: low home prices, underwater mortgages and credit standards. As for the first, prices have finally been increasing and are up 20 percent from their 2011 lows. As far as underwater mortgages are concerned, the proportion of properties with negative equity fell from some 22 percent in late 2012 to 10 percent in the first quarter of 2015. The percentage of so-called “distressed” sales, which includes both short sales and bank sales of foreclosed homes, has also decreased significantly, from above 30 percent of total home sales throughout 2010 and 2011 to 10 percent in June.

The month of May provided further evidence that the sector is finally on the mend. Existing home sales rose 5.1 percent to an annualized pace of 5.35 million, the strongest pace since November 2009 and well above the consensus call for 5.26 million homes. Notably, the share of first-time homebuyers was the highest since September 2012, rising to 32 percent from 30 percent in April. The improving labor market played an important role – more jobs mean that more people, particularly young people, have the cash to buy homes.

Mortgage lending standards remain tight, but the supply of credit appears to be growing. It helps that the Federal Housing Administration lowered its mortgage insurance premiums in January and government entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reintroduced a 3 percent down payment for government-backed loans. Saporta and Cui say it will take several more years for the relationship between housing and overall economic activity to return to what economists describe as “normal,” but things are heading slowly and steadily in that direction. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.thefinancialist.com/finally-housing-recovers/#sthash.T5oUsWGE.dpuf