俄罗斯经济复苏的三个迹象

Evan Tarver  2015年10月22日

在过去18个月中原油和其他俄罗斯经济主要驱动产品的价格大幅下跌。同时，美国因乌克兰问题对俄罗斯进行了制裁。因此，俄罗斯卢布的价值大幅下跌，国内资本也向国外流失。似乎这个国家的经济正在持续恶化。

然而，与预期相反，俄罗斯的经济已经开始复苏。随着国内企业表现的好转、进口价格的上升和卢布价值的下跌俄罗斯经济已经开始回暖。

国内企业的表现

俄罗斯的股票市场是今年表现最好的股票市场之一。根据报告，在最近这个季度大约78%的俄罗斯公司在MICEX的收益要比国际同行好的多。俄罗斯公司的效益也整体上比MSCI新兴市场指数好的多。

例如，俄罗斯钢铁公司Severstal创下了六年来利润新高。2015年4月，该公司与俄罗斯尼桑工厂签订了钢铁供应合同，这将有望增加俄罗斯对曾经前苏联成员、美洲和中东的出口。

经济学家曾预测原油价格每下跌10%就会减少俄罗斯2%的GDP。然而，俄罗斯的GDP在油价持续下跌18个月之后有望达到年增长3.5%。

卢布贬值的帮助

GDP历史性的连续18月的下降导致俄罗斯卢布对美元几乎贬值了一半。油价由于沙特阿拉伯决定采集创纪录数量的石油之后进一步下跌，这将阻碍卢布短期内回升。

像Severstal这样出口钢材大约30%的公司，将会在原油价格下跌中受益。俄罗斯生产钢材的所有成本都由卢布定价。俄罗斯公司相对其国际竞争对手的成本大幅下降。另一方面，俄罗斯公司出口的钢材都是由欧元和美元定价的，这将进一步增加二者兑卢布的价值。当公司以外国货币获利，就可以通过有利的利率购买更多的卢布。

这一优势也适用于能源板块。俄罗斯向使用美元和欧元的国家出口大量的石油和天然气。这也是为什么俄罗斯跨国石油生产商 Rosneft在去年收入增加18%的原因，而且国际竞争者的收入增加还不到1%。

这是为什么俄罗斯的税收没有下降的原因，缓解了一些经济困难。俄罗斯的石油出口还几乎处于历史最高点，但是这同时也引起石油价格继续走低。

进口价格的上升

卢布除了帮助出口公司，同时也增加了俄罗斯进口的价格。这在用国内产品代替进口产品时使经济受益。这将有助俄罗斯GDP的增长。

在1998年发生过类似的复苏，当亚洲金融危机蔓延到俄罗斯的时候，俄罗斯在偿还国际债务时违约导致卢布价值巨大下跌。这产生了一个对经济的直接负面影响，之后发生的进口代替复苏使大多数经济学家难以置信。在当前环境下也会发生同样的事。

3 Signs the Russian Economy Is Recovering 

By Evan Tarver | October 22, 2015 

The price of oil, and the main driver of Russia's economy, has declined significantly over the past 18 months. At the same time, the United States imposed sanctions on Russia in the wake of its annexation of Crimea in Ukraine. In response, Russia's ruble decreased in value, and capital began to leave the country as citizens placed their money abroad. It seemed as if the country's economy was spiraling downward.

However, against expectations, Russia's economy is starting to recover. With an increase in the performance of domestic companies, rising prices for imports and a devaluation of the ruble, Russia's economy has kickstarted itself.

Performance of Domestic Companies

The Russian stock market is one of the best-performing markets this year. According to reports, roughly 78% of Russian companies on the MICEX index have shown more revenue growth in the most recent quarter than their global peers. Russian companies are also now more profitable overall than the companies on the MSCI Emerging Markets index.

For example, Russian steelmaker Severstal recorded its highest profit margins in six years on high output. In April 2015, the company signed a contract to supply steel to the Renault-Nissan auto plant, which is expected to increase exports from Russia to the former Soviet republics, Africa and the Middle East.

Economists have been forecasting that every $10 decline in the price of crude oil reduced Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) by roughly 2%. However, Russia's GDP, after declining for close to 18 months, is expected to grow at roughly 3.5% per year, even without increases in oil prices.

Devaluation of the Ruble Aids Performance

The historic decrease in GDP over the past 18 months has caused Russia's currency to lose nearly half its value against the U.S. dollar. Further declines in oil prices, which may be imminent due to Saudi Arabia's decision to pump record amounts of crude oil, will stop the ruble from recovering in the short-term.

For companies such as Severstal, which exports roughly 30% of its steel, the devaluation is beneficial. All of the costs that go into producing Russian steel are priced in rubles. Russian company costs relative to their international competitors' costs have decreased significantly. On the other side, any steel that Russian companies export abroad is priced in U.S. dollars or euros, both of which have strengthened in value against the ruble. When the company earns its revenue in foreign currency, it can effectively buy more rubles through the favorable exchange rates.

This benefit also applies to the country's energy sector. Russia exports huge amounts of oil and gas to nations that use the dollar or the euro. That's partially why Rosneft, a multinational oil producer in Russia, reported a revenue increase of 18% last year, compared to an increase of less than 1% for its international competitors.

This performance is a big reason why Russia's tax revenue has not declined, mitigating more pain for the country's economy. Russia's oil output is still near record highs, however, which has caused oil prices to remain weak.

Rising Prices for Imports

In addition to the ruble helping company performance, it also increases the price of imports for Russia. This provides economic benefits in the form of domestic import substitutions that consumers purchase in lieu of the higher-priced important goods options. This allows Russians to save more, and it helps the economy increase its GDP.

A similar recovery happened in 1998, when the Asian financial crisis spread to Russia; the country defaulted on its international debt and subsequently devalued the ruble. There was an immediate negative economic response, followed by an import substitution recovery that was more successful than most economists believed. The same should happen in the current environment.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102215/3-signs-russian-economy-recovering.asp