受油价下跌影响最大的货币 - 兄弟财经外汇返佣十七年信誉保障

James Garrett Baldwin 2015年10月20日

2015年，原油价格随着产量的增加和对全球经济的担忧剧烈下跌。价格从2014年6月开始下跌了一半，到达了即使2009年大萧条也没达到的水平。美国能源信息管理局预测2020年原油价格将会徘徊在70美元左右。而石油高管预测，更长时间后价格能回到90或者100美元范围。

在美国，有超过10万名工人因为公司削减预算重新评估当前价格下的产量失去工作。但是美国由于经济多样化并没有因油价下跌受到剧烈影响。

与此同时，一些国家和其货币正受到油价下跌的巨大压力。一种货币受石油价格上升或者下降影响剧烈的货币被称为石油货币。简单来说，石油货币是产油国的货币，例如俄罗斯和加拿大，石油出口占其大量的出口份额。因为出口份额巨大，这些货币将会随着油价升降。

本文列出了五种受油价影响巨大的货币。

加元

2015年9月，加拿大央行行长Stephen Poloz预测将会在多年因油价而低迷中反弹。然而，其货币弱势情况能改变吗？

在全球范围内，加元日益被视为石油货币。在8月，加元因全球油价下跌而达到11年的最低点。该国是全球第五大石油生产国，石油出口占其总出口的14%。油价和CAD/USD货币对之间存在强烈的关系。

从2014年6月到2015年9月，加元贬值19.15%。

卢布

作为全球最大的石油生产商之一，俄罗斯的经济随着大宗商品价格而低落。

事实上，该国被迫将利率上升到17%防止资本逃离。根据俄罗斯的数据，该国的能源出口占总出口总额的70%，而能源总收入占全国预算份额的50%。

世界银行发布了关于俄罗斯无法进行经济多样化的警告。油价下跌一美元，该国的收入大约损失20美元。

2014年6月19日，北海布伦特原油价格下跌49%，与此同时卢布下跌49.05%。

哥伦比亚比索

处在南美洲北部边缘，许多人不认为哥伦比亚是一个依靠能源出口的国家。然而，哥伦比亚是西半球最依赖能源出口的国家之一。

哥伦比亚45%的出口和石油和天然气产品相关，使比索容易受到大宗商品价格波动的影响。像俄罗斯和其他严重依靠能源出口的公司一样，这个国家正在尝试多样化其就业部门使其新兴市场经济达到发达的地位。然而，这种多样化需要花费时间、教育和资源。

挪威克朗

石油在挪威的GDP中占据重要地位。挪威的石油部门是最重要的行业，石油板块占其GDP的21.5%和总出口的48.9%。然而由于油价低落，挪威克朗自2014年6月开始下降25.69%。

巴西雷亚尔

最近由于大宗商品价格下跌巴西雷亚尔已经达到有史以来兑美元的最低点。该国最大的能源公司Petrobras因巨大丑闻和原油价格下跌而陷入困境。

巴西希望2016年奥运会能振兴其经济，然而，缺乏多样性、基础设施薄弱和对大宗商品的过度依赖的系统性问题将会将会继续困扰巴西的货币。虽然石油出口份额相对上述国家较小，大宗商品价格的下降使其货币下跌。自2014年6月雷亚尔下跌42.8%。

总结

油价下跌对依赖能源出口国家的货币有负面影响。和油价具有巨大相关性的货币被成为石油货币。其他的货币和石油价格有很强联系的国家包括沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、伊拉克、尼日利亚和委内瑞拉。

The Currencies Most Affected by Falling Oil Prices

By James Garrett Baldwin | October 20, 2015

In 2015, oil prices have plunged globally in the wake of rising oil production and concerns about global economic growth. Prices have fallen by roughly half since June 2014, plummeting to levels that markets have not seen since the near-total collapse of world trade during the Great Recession of 2009. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that average oil prices will hover around $70 per barrel in 2020. While oil executives anticipate that it could be much longer until prices return to a range of $90 or $100 per barrel.

In the United States, more than 100,000 workers have lost their jobs as companies slash budgets and begin to re-evaluate the production of oil at current price levels. Ultimately, though the U.S. hasn't been dramatically impacted by declining oil prices because its economy is diverse.

Meanwhile, certain countries and their currencies are struggling significantly under the pressures of falling oil prices. A currency that is significantly impacted by the rising and falling oil prices is commonly known as a petrocurrency. In short, a petrocurrency is the currency of an oil-producing nation — like Russia or Canada — that has significant amounts of oil exports as a percentage of its entire export portfolio. Given such a large share of exports, the currency will rise and fall in correlation with the price of oil.

This article outlines five currencies with significant exposure to fluctuating oil prices and the impact on their economies.

The Canadian Loonie

In September 2015, Stephen Poloz, Governer of the Bank of Canada predicted that the country’s economy would bounce back from multi-year lows in oil prices. However, can it come back from a weakened currency?

Around the globe, the Canadian dollar is increasingly viewed as a petrocurrency. In August, the loonie hit an 11-year low due to a decline in global oil prices. The nation is the fifth-largest producer of oil in the world, and oil comprises 14% of all its exports, according to the Economist.

As explained in the image below, a strong correlation exists between the movement of the CAD/USD currency pairing and the price of oil over the last 14 years.

From June 2014 to September 2015, the Canadian dollar fell 19.15%. (For more, read: Do Falling Oil Prices Hurt the Canadian Economy?)

The Russian Ruble

As one of the world’s largest oil producers, Russia has seen its economic conditions decline in the wake of falling commodity prices.

In fact, the nation was forced to resort to hiking its interest rate to 17% to stave off capital flight from its struggling economy, which relies massively on oil-and-gas production. According to Russian statistics, the nation’s energy exports account for more than 70% of all exports, and energy incomes comprise more than 50% of the nation’s federal budget intake.

The World Bank has issued a dire warning about Russia’s inability to diversity its economy. For every $1 that oil prices decline, the nation loses roughly $2 billion in revenue.

On June 19, 2014, North Sea Brent crude prices declined by 49%; meanwhile the Russian ruble fell by 49.05% during the same period

The Colombian Peso

Tucked in the northern edge of South America, not many think of Colombia as a nation with a steep reliance on energy exports. However, Colombia is one of the most energy-dependent countries in the Western Hemisphere when it comes to generating revenue for its economy.

Roughly 45% of all exports in Colombia are tied to oil and gas products, making the Peso susceptible to price swings during times of commodity volatility. Like Russia and other companies with a steep reliance on energy exports, the nation is attempting to diversify its employment sectors to bring its emerging market economy into developed status. However, such diversification will take time, education, and resources.(For more, read: Is Colombia an Emerging Market Economy?).The Colombian peso has declined by 37.86% since oil prices began retreating in June 2014.

The Norwegian Krone

Oil is central to Norway's higher-than-average Gross Domestic Product and GDP per capita. The nation's economic success has been accelerated by a non-disrupted source of crude oil. Norway’s petroleum sector is its most important industry—the petroleum sector accounts for 21.5% of its GDP, and almost half (48.9%) of total exports. However, as a result of poor oil prices, the Norwegian Krone has been down 25.69% since June 2014. (Read more, here: Norway, the Safest Oil Economy?)

The Brazilian Real

The Brazilian real recently hit an all-time low against the U.S. dollar as falling commodity prices weaken South America’s largest economy. The nation's largest energy company Petrobras has been crippled by a massive corruption scandal and falling crude prices.

Brazil hopes the 2016 Olympics will reinvigorate the economy; however, systemic problems related to a lack of economic diversity, weak infrastructure, and an over-reliance on commodity production will continue to plague Brazil’s currency long after the final gold medal has been issued. While the nation has a smaller percentage of oil exports than other companies on this list, falling commodity prices in metals, grains, and other agricultural commodities have pulled the Real down. Since June 2014, the Real has declined by 42.8%.

The Bottom Line

Falling oil prices can have an adverse impact on countries who's currencies rely on energy exports to fuel economic growth and development. Currencies with the highest correlation between oil prices and the value of the nation's money are traditionally known as petrocurrencies. Additional exporting countries whose currencies have a strong link to oil prices include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102015/currencies-most-affected-falling-oil-prices.asp