Zaw Thiha Tun 2015年9月2日
通胀影响我们身边的所有事物，从例如衣食住行这样的必需品到生活的各个方面。而且，它能轻易的减少我们的存款。它会使我们现在的存款在未来价值降低。在本文中，我们将会阐述在美国通胀背后的基本面因素，包括成本推动式通胀、 需求拉动式通胀和消费者对通胀的预期。
通胀简介
但是在深入讨论之前，我们先来了解一下通胀和价格指数在测量通胀中的作用。大多数经济书籍把通胀定义成经济体总体价格的持续上升。这就意味着货币丧失购买力。在未来相同金额的货币只能购买更少的商品和服务。通胀和紧缩是相反的，紧缩时总体价格水平大幅下降，其通胀率为负。通胀率为价格指数的百分比变化。中央银行密切关注通胀率，因为它是推动货币政策的主要因素。发展中经济体的中央银行，包括美联储，通常希望把通胀率维持在每年2%。
价格指数
正如前面提到的，通胀率由价格指数的变化决定。在美国，被引用和分析最多的是城镇居民消费价格指数，该数据由劳工统计局每月发布。城镇居民消费指数是一个商品和服务的加权，包括食品、饮料、教育和娱乐。其次被引用最多的是生产价格指数，其中包含燃料和农产品，化工产品和金属。生产指数报告影响国内生产商的价格变化，而且你可以经常看到这些价格变化在一段时间之后在消费价格指数上转嫁给消费者。
在测量通胀率时一个重要的区别是整体通胀和核心通胀。整体通胀反映在一个国家的所有商品和服务上的通胀。核心通胀是整体通胀减去食品和能源。2015年4月的城镇居民消费价格指数比三月上涨0.1%，年度增长0.2%。去除食品和能源后，核心通胀同比增长1.8%。这仍然低于美联储2%的目标。
成本推动式通胀
成本推动式通胀是两个主要的通胀类型之一。它是指生产成本上升，导致价格压力增加。成本推动式通胀一个可能的迹象是大宗商品价格上升，因为像原油和金属这样的大宗商品是主要的生产投入。
然而证据表明，非石油大宗商品价格和通胀之间的关系自20世纪80年代就已经被破坏了。分析人士和制定者现在通过失业率观察劳动力市场，因为劳动力是最重要的生产投入。因为劳动力短缺可以创造提高工资的压力，劳动力短缺越严重失业率就越低。此外，由于劳动力市场的结构性力量，劳动力瓶颈的可能性在失业率达到零之前很久就产生。在失业率下面的工资增长压力被称为非加速性失业增长率。
需求拉动式通胀
需求拉动式通胀是一个供应方面的问题，需求拉动式通胀是由高需求引起的价格增长引起的。需求拉动式通胀可以由以下因素引起：
扩张性财政政策。通过降低税收,政府可以增加对企业和消费者的可支配收入。企业可以把钱花在资本的改进、员工薪酬或新招聘等等。消费者可以购买更多不必要的物品。此外，随着政府通过增加开支刺激经济，例如开始大规模基础设施建设，对商品和服务的需求将会增加，导致价格增长。
货币贬值。货币贬值可以增加出口和对我们商品和服务的总需求。需求增加导致价格上升。货币贬值还能导致进口减少。这可能导致成本推动式通胀。
扩张性货币政策
通过公开市场操作，央行可以增加货币供给并创建过剩的流通性，这将相对商品降低货币的价值。换句话说，通过增加货币供给，经济体内所有参与者购买力增加，导致整体需求的上升。如果商品供应不能适应过剩需求，价格将会上升。就像货币学派总结的那样，过多的钱追逐太少的商品。或者政府可以通过降低利率诱导他们借贷，从而增企业扩张投资和家庭用品的需求。
通胀预期
除了成本推动式通胀和需求拉动式通胀，通胀预期在一个经济体的影响不能被夸大。一旦通胀在一个经济体足够普遍，进一步通胀的预期将会成为最主要的担忧因素。这些预期将会成为这些经济体行为背后的指导原则，导致通胀持续增长。我们在20世纪70年代和80年代的欧洲和美国遇到过这种情况，即使在经济衰退通胀率还是很高。最终导致高失业率和高通胀的滞涨。
尽管通胀预期在政府观调查外很能观察，间接测量这些预期的一个方法是通过政府发布的挂钩债券和其他政府发行的其他没有通胀保护的债务工具之间的利差。例如10年期债券收益率为4%，十年期挂钩债券收益为2%，那么我们可以推断在未来十年年通胀率为2%。
总结
美国的通胀压力可以归结为以下三个主要因素：生产投入成本增加，整体需求增加和未来通胀的消费者预期。在这三种通胀中，在最近几年中需求拉动式是最主要的，因为世界各地的政府都在推出宽松货币政策以促进经济增长。美联储在十年来首次提供短期利率，全球资本市场的走势将会跟随美国的通胀率。直到美联储确定立场之前，通胀率都将是金融格局的中心。
What Causes Inflation in the United States
By Zaw Thiha Tun | September 02, 2015
Inflation affects everything around us, from basic necessities like housing, food, medical care and utilities to the cost of cosmetics and new automobiles. Furthermore, inflation can effortlessly deteriorate our savings. It makes the money saved today less valuable tomorrow, eroding our future purchasing power and even interfering with our ability to retire. In this article, we will examine the fundamental factors behind inflation in the United States including cost-push inflation, demand-pull inflation and the impact of consumer expectations on inflation.
Inflation: a Brief Introduction
But before we go any further, a brief primer on inflation and role of the price indices in measuring inflation is in order. Most economics textbooks define inflation as the sustained rise in the overall price-level of an economy. This means that money loses its purchasing power. The same amount of money can purchase fewer real goods and services into the future. Inflation is the opposite of deflation, which is a sustained decrease in the overall price level in an economy characterized by a negative inflation rate. The inflation rate is the percentage change in a price index. Central banks monitor the inflation rate closely, as it is the overriding force behind monetary policies. These are the monetary policies that impact the level of money supply and the availability of credit within an economy. Central banks of developed economies, including the Federal Reserve in the United States (the Fed), generally aim to keep the inflation rate around 2 percent per year.
Price Indices
As previously mentioned, the inflation rate is determined by the rate of change in a price index. The most cited and analyzed price index in the United States is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, or CPI-U, which is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics each month (the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index covers all U.S. personal consumption). The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers is a weighted basket of goods and services, ranging from food and beverage to education and recreation. A second, often-quoted price index is the producer price index (PPI), which includes things like fuels and farm products (meats and grains), chemical products and metals. The producer price index reports the price changes that affect domestic producers, and you can often see these prices changes being passed on to the consumers some time later in the Consumer Price Index.
An important distinction to make when measuring inflation rates is the difference between headline and core inflation. Headline inflation is inflation reflected in a price index by all goods and services in a country. Core inflation is headline inflation minus food and energy (excluded because food and energy are susceptible to short-term volatility). The latest Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers numbers released for the month of July 2015, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent from the prior month, and 0.2 percent year-over-year. When food and energy were factored out, core inflation rose a more substantial 1.8 percent year-over-year. This is still lower than the Fed's 2 percent target. (See also: The Consumer Price Index: A Friend To Investors.)
Cost-Push Inflation
Cost-push inflation is one of two main types of inflation within an economy. It refers to rising costs of production (usually in the form of wages), contributing to increasing pricing pressure. One of the signs of possible cost-push inflation can be seen in rising commodity prices, as commodities like oil and metals are major production inputs.
However, evidence has shown that the correlation between non-oil commodity prices and inflation has eroded since the 1980s. Wages are the single biggest expense for businesses. Analysts and policy makers currently see the labor market, through the unemployment rate, as the most important production input. As shortages in labor can create pressure to raise wages, it flows naturally that the lower the unemployment rate, the higher the possibility of labor shortages. Moreover, due to structural forces in the labor market (training inefficiencies, new and emerging industries, population changes and so on), the possibility of labor bottlenecks are created long before the unemployment rate ever reaches zero. The unemployment threshold, below which exists upwards wage pressure, is known as the non-accelerating rate of unemployment (NAIRU). (See also: What is the relationship between oil prices and inflation?)
Demand-Pull Inflation
While cost-push inflation is a supply-side issue, demand-pull inflation is inflation caused by high demand causing rising prices. Demand-pull inflation can be caused by factors such as the following:
Expansionary fiscal policy. By lowering taxes, governments can increase the amount of discretionary income for both business and consumers. Businesses may spend it on capital improvements, employee compensation or new hiring, among other things. Consumers may purchase more nonessential items. Furthermore, as the government stimulates the economy by increasing its spending, say by undertaking major infrastructure projects, the demand for goods and services will increase, leading to price increases.
Devaluation of the currency. Currency devaluation can lead to higher exports (as our good become suddenly less expensive and thus more attractive to foreign buyers) and this increases aggregate demand for our goods and services. Higher demand can lead to high prices. Currency devaluation can also result in lower imports (as foreign goods become suddenly more expensive to purchase with devalued dollars). This can increase cost-push inflationary pressures production inputs such as raw materials are imported.
Expansionary monetary policy. Through open market operations, central banks can increase the money supply and create a surplus of liquidity that can bring down the value of money vis-a-vis the price of goods. In other words, by expanding the money supply, the purchasing power of all the participants in an economy increases, leading to a rise in aggregate demand. If the supply of goods do not adjust with this excess demand, then there will upwards pressure on prices. As summarized by the monetarists--too much money chasing too few goods. Alternatively, governments can induce household and business borrowing by lowering the interest rate which will create demand for business expansionary investments and household goods. (See also: What factors cause shifts in aggregate demand? and Cost-Push Inflation Versus Demand-Pull Inflation.)
Inflationary Expectations
Aside from cost-push and demand-pull inflationary pressures, the impact of inflationary expectations on an economy cannot be overstated. Once inflation becomes prevalent enough in an economy, the expectation of further inflation becomes an overriding concern in the consciousness of consumers and businesses alike. These expectations then become a guiding principle behind the actions of these economic agents causing inflation to persist in an economy long after the initial shock has dissipated. We saw this phenomenon in the European and U.S. economies during the 1970s and early 1980s when high inflation rates persisted even after the economies were in a recessionary slump. The end result of high unemployment coupled with high inflation become known as stagflation, a dreaded condition.
Though inflationary expectations are difficult to observe outside of government surveys, one way to indirectly measure these expectations is through the spread between government-issued inflation-linked bonds, such as TIPS, and other government debt instruments that do not have inflation protection. For example, if the yield on a 10-year nominal bond is 4% and the yield on the 10 year inflation-linked bond is 2%, then we can infer the market has priced in a 2 percent rate of annual inflation over the next 10 years. Currently, as shown in the graph below, this spread is around 149 basis points.
The Bottom Line
Inflationary pressures in the United States can be attributed to three major factors: rising costs of inputs of production (cost-push), increases in aggregate demand (demand-pull) and consumer expectations of future inflation. Out of these three sources of inflation, demand-pull has been the most prominent in recent years, as governments around the world have pursued loose monetary policies in an effort to grow their economies. With the Federal Reserve set to raise short-term interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, the direction of the global capital markets is contingent upon the U.S. inflation rate. Until the Fed takes a definitive stance, inflation will continue to take front and center stage on the financial landscape. (See also: The Chinese Devaluation of the Yuan.)
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090215/what-causes-inflation-united-states.asp