美国消费者迎来消费狂欢

美国第三季度的GDP年化增长率仅为1.5%，数据并不乐观，不仅低于预期的1.6%，还远低于第二季度的3.9%。但反观GDP增长的各种因素，都显示出乐观的迹象：在最近几个季度中，消费支出最大的GDP贡献者，而美国消费者的支出足以弥补停滞的出口和低迷的商业投资。 

第三季度消费支出的年化增长率为3.2%，虽略逊于第二季度的3.6%，但仍高于经济萧条后期2%的平均水平。我们将1.5%的增长率逐一分解，企业库存增加和净出口都给GDP增长拖了后腿。虽然政府支出和企业、个人投资做出了些许贡献，但最大的GDP贡献者还是商品和服务的消费支出。 

瑞士信贷分析，推动消费增长的四个因素表明，低收入家庭开始真正享受到经济复苏带来的好处了。受房地产泡沫冲击极大的就业率开始逐渐恢复。 

现在各州的消费支出数据暂时查不到，所以还无法证实就业率回升是否刺激了“泡沫州”的消费支出。但各种间接的数据表明，答案是肯定的。泡沫州的消费者对信用卡的使用量有所增加，因此负债也随之增加。除了次级借款人的债务增加，无论是否遭受金融危机冲击，各州的借款人无论信誉是否优良，其债务皆有增加。 

去年油价下跌，低收入家庭或多或少从中获益。对于60%的低收入人群来说，汽油占据了税后不可控支出的7.1%，而对其余40%的人群来说，汽油仅占3.7%。总的来说，去年油价下跌为美国消费者节省了1%的可消费支出。有证据表明，消费者愿意把这1%的“不义之财”花掉，而不是存起来。因为自今年初，银行利率大幅下降，而从2014年初油价下跌开始，餐厅支出大幅增加。 

而油价下跌不是刺激低收入人群消费的唯一因素。高收入人群也起到了一定的推动作用。自2003年起，收入最低的10%的美国家庭的周薪增长了2.6%，是2009年至2012年间平均水平0.9的两倍还多。零售和休闲领域的工人工资最低，所以不得不加班工作以赚取更多的工资。这两个行业提供了3000万个工作岗位，占私人雇佣的四分之一。 

瑞士信贷认为，如此大范围的复苏都要归功于非必需品的消费，如服装、日用品、玩具等。低收入家庭的非必需品消费占收入的比例要高于高收入家庭。而随着经济的复苏，他们愿意在“杂项”上花更多的钱。这对经济来说是个好迹象，因为这类支出的增加会持续一段时间。

瑞士信贷专家称，易耗品消费将保持“长期、缓慢”的增长。虽然美联储的加息计划会抑制消费者借钱买东西的热情，但瑞士信贷相信，可支配的个人开支将继续推动消费支出的增长。 

US Consumers Are on a Shopping Spree 

Real GDP growth in the U.S. wasn’t particularly impressive in the third quarter –the 1.5 percent annualized increase came in just shy of the 1.6 percent consensus forecast and way down from the 3.9 percent reading in the second quarter. A look at the components of GDP growth, however, reveals a very positive signal for the future: Consumer spending has been the biggest contributor to GDP in recent quarters, and American consumers are spending enough to make up for stagnating exports and decelerating business investment.

Consumer spending rose at an annualized rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter, down from 3.6 percent in the second quarter, but still quite strong compared to the post-recession average of 2 percent. Breaking down the overall 1.5 percent increase, businesses adding to inventories and net exports were both a drag on GDP growth. Government spending and investment by both businesses and individuals made a modest positive contribution, but the biggest boost by far came from consumer spending on goods and services. 

The four major factors that Credit Suisse believes are driving consumption higher suggest that lower-income households are finally starting to feel the benefits of a recovery that technically began in 2009. For one thing, employment levels in the states hit hardest by the bursting of the housing bubble are starting to recover. The employment gap between the 20 percent of states that suffered the biggest drop in housing net worth during the crisis and the 20 percent with the smallest decline is narrowing. 

Current state-by-state consumer spending figures aren’t available. So it’s impossible to know whether the employment recovery is feeding through into higher spending in what Credit Suisse calls “bubble states.” But indirect measures suggest that it is. Consumers in bubble states are starting to charge more on their credit cards and take out more auto loans. Rising debt levels among subprime borrowers in bubble states are part of a larger trend in which households of all kinds – those with good credit and bad, those in states pummeled by the financial crisis and those in states that remained relatively untouched – have been taking on more household debt. The long-running household deleveraging that began in the wake of the financial crisis started to reverse course in late 2013 and that turnaround is now filtering down to borrowers with less than sterling credit. That directly encourages consumer spending. 

Lower-income households have also enjoyed disproportionate relief from the decline in oil prices over the past year. For the lowest-earning 60 percent of households, gasoline made up 7.1 percent of non-discretionary spending after tax, compared to 3.7 percent for the top 40 percent. In aggregate, low gas prices have saved American consumers the equivalent of 1 percent of their total disposable income over the past year. The evidence suggests that consumers are spending that windfall, rather than saving it: Household savings rates have declined dramatically since the beginning of this year, and restaurant spending has soared since oil prices first started to decline in 2014.

Falling gas prices aren’t the only factors encouraging – or, perhaps, allowing – lower-income Americans to spend. Higher income is playing a part, too. The lowest-earning 10 percent of American households have seen weekly earnings grow 2.6 percent a year since 2013, more than double the 0.9 percent annual growth rate between 2009 and 2012. Workers in the two lowest-paid sectors, retail and leisure and hospitality, are working more hours and benefitting from steady growth in payroll income. Those two sectors account for more than 30 million jobs, or one-fourth of private employment.

Credit Suisse believes that this broader recovery is directly responsible for the steady uptick in spending on discretionary items such as clothing, household products, and toys. Lower-income households spend a higher proportion of their income on discretionary goods than wealthier households do, and as their fortunes recover, they seem to be able to spend more on “extras.” That’s a very good sign for the economy, as these kinds of spending recoveries tend to last for a while. Credit Suisse says trends in spending on services and non-durable goods tend to come in “long, slow waves.” Even with the Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates this year, which could put a damper on consumers’ enthusiasm for buying things they usually borrow money for, such as cars or large appliances, Credit Suisse forecasts discretionary spending will continue to support the strong consumer spending trend.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：https://www.thefinancialist.com/us-consumers-are-on-a-shopping-spree/#sthash.wVCfIXBy.dpuf