中国经济放缓对铁矿石市场的影响 - 兄弟财经外汇返佣十七年信誉保障

Poonkulali Thangavelu 2015年8月31日

由中国这样的国家对铁矿石的巨大需求使大宗商品在过去10年中炙手可热。现在由于中国中经济的放缓，铁矿石的需求很可能降低，因为行业出现供大于求的状况。

为什么铁矿石对全球经济至关重要呢？铁产量，尤其是钢材产量是发展中经济体的基本资源，尤其是像中国这样在短期内急速发展的国家。钢合金对建筑和工程项目至关重要。钢铁产品是一个国家交通运输行业的基石，也是石油和天然气的分销设施。他们还广泛被用到生产中，几乎涉及生活各个方面。

中国经济放缓的影响

中国已经成为世界上最大的钢铁消费国。其经济繁荣，是由制造业和基础设施和城镇住房推动的，从而推动了对铁矿石等原材料的大量需求。根据澳大利亚最大的铁矿石开采商BHP Billiton的数据，中国的需求推动该公司的产量在14年间增加超过100%，由2000年9.5亿吨增加到2014年的22亿吨。

然而，现在中国的经济在20年的急速增长之后似乎要冷却下来，而且一些铁矿石开采商已经受到了影响。中国的钢铁产量在2015年出现了1994年以来的首次下跌，上半年的铁矿石进口也有所下降。原来通常内部出售的中国工厂现在的出口也在增加。

澳大利亚的另一铁矿石出口商Rio Tinto预测随着中国住房供应过剩的到来，中国的需求将会长时间沉寂。除非那些未出售的住房、公寓和商业建筑出售完毕，中国的房地产行业才会推出大量的新项目。对钢铁无止境的需求最终降低。

铁矿石供应的增加

随着中国需求的下降，全球铁矿石的供应稳定增长。主要的铁矿石供应国包括澳大利亚、巴西、印度、南非，当然也包括中国。

根据高盛的调查数据显示，澳大利亚2016年出口的铁矿石将达到7.85亿吨，高于2015年的预测。同样，巴西明年的铁矿石出口将达到4.11亿吨，将会高于今年预测的3.67亿吨。同时，分析人士预测全球需求在2015娘将下降1.3%，在2016年小幅增长1.1%。

在中国对铁矿石的需求不断增长的时候，全世界的铁矿石开采商都通过增加开采和精炼设施提高产量。这种繁荣不可能是持续的，即使对一个热门市场来说产量增长也太快了。BHP Billiton估计在2011年时铁矿石的全球供应就超过了需求。铁矿石的价格多年来一直未见增长。现在，随着中国的经济的放缓，价格没有任何会增长迹象。

对价格的影响

从1980年到2005年，随着中国这样国家的工业化不断加速铁矿石的需求稳定增长，澳大利亚铁矿石平均出口价格为30美元每干吨。在21世纪初中国对铁矿石的需求达到高峰，2015年铁矿石的价格增长到96美元每干吨。在顶峰时，铁矿石的价格为180美元每干吨。（而过去35年铁矿石的平均价格为49美元每干吨）

那些令人陶醉的日子现在已经结束了。Goldman Sachs分析预测铁矿石价格将会在2017年初下跌30%。分析人士预测铁矿石讲个在2015年第三季度将会下跌到49美元，第四季度达到48美元，2016年第二季度达到44美元。

加拿大皇家银行的分析师则持有乐观的态度。他们预测2015年的铁矿石平均价格为55美元每吨，而2016年则会再次上涨达到56美元。到2019年，市场开始复苏，平均价格将达到65美元每吨。

长期前景

所以未来几年铁矿石的前景并不乐观，但是行业的长期前景还是比较积极的。毕竟，发展中国家还有大量人口将会从农村搬移到城镇居住。随着印度、美洲和非洲国家的经济发展，他们会大量需求钢铁产品。即使是中国，随着其人口增长和工业化进程的持续，仍将是全球最大的铁矿石消费国。

总结

随着全球经济的发展，铁矿石的需求将会非常强烈。中国的经济放缓导致对铁矿石的需求下降，将会对铁矿石价格在中短期带来压力。随着供需平衡重新建立，铁矿石价格将会恢复其长期上涨的趋势。

Chinese Slowdown Impacts Iron Ore Market

By Poonkulali Thangavelu | August 31, 2015

Red-hot demand for iron ore (from which iron is extracted), driven by such countries as China, has fueled an insatiable global appetite for the commodity over the past decade. Now, however, with the ongoing slowdown in the Chinese economy (for more, read: What Happens to the Economy if China Deleverages), demand for iron ore is expected to diminish, with prices already tumbling as the sector faces too much supply for too few buyers.

Why is iron ore so essential to economies worldwide? Iron production, particularly steel, is a fundamental resource for a developing economy, especially a country like China that is experiencing rapid growth in a relatively short period. Steel alloys (formed by adding other metals to iron) are critical to construction and engineering projects. Iron and steel products are the building blocks of a country's transportation industries and its oil and gas extraction and distribution facilities. They're also found in a wide array of manufacturing, from appliances to shipping containers.

Impact of Chinese Slowdown

China has become one of the world’s largest iron consumers. Its economic boom, which has been driven by manufacturing and the country's gangbuster attempts to build infrastructure and urban housing, has been fueled by massive amounts of raw materials such as iron ore. According to BHP Billiton (BHP), a top Australian iron ore producer, Chinese demand has helped iron ore production to rise by more than 100% in 14 years, going from 950 million tons produced per annum in 2000 to 2,200 million tons in 2014.

However, the Chinese economy finally appears to be cooling off after some 20 years of fervid growth (see also China's Economic Indicators, Impact on Markets), and already some effects are being felt by iron ore producers. Chinese steel production was down in early 2015, the first such decline posted since 1994, and Chinese iron ore imports slumped for the first half of the year. Demand in China is becoming so tepid that Chinese mills, which typically serve an array of internal customers, are now exporting more of their production.

Rio Tinto (RIO), another Australian iron ore exporter, expects Chinese demand for steel to be muted for years, as China has to contend with a major oversupply of housing. Until this massive unsold inventory of houses, condominiums and commercial properties diminishes, the Chinese home-building sector has little incentive (and may have little capital) to launch many new projects. What once had seemed like an endless thirst for iron and steel finally appears to be drying up.

Growing Supply of Iron Ore

As Chinese demand slows, global iron ore supply keeps steadily growing. Major suppliers of iron ore include Australia, Brazil, India, South Africa and, of course, China itself.

According to Goldman Sachs researchers, iron ore shipped from Australia will hit 785 million tons in 2016, up from the 764 million tons expected in 2015. By the same token, Brazilian iron ore exports should reach 411 million tons next year, compared to the 367 million tons predicted this year. At the same time, analysts expect a 1.3% drop in global demand in 2015 and predict a tepid 1.1% growth in 2016.

Back when it seemed as though there would be no end to China's need for iron ore, producers around the world (including China) kicked up production by expanding mining and refinery facilities. There already have been signs for years that this boom was unsustainable, with production growing too quickly even for a hot market. BHP Billiton estimated that the global supply of iron ore overtook global demand somewhere around 2011. Iron ore prices have been restrained for years already. Now, given the slowdown of one of the world's hungriest economies, there's nothing on the horizon to suggest that prices will rise any time soon.

Impact on Price?

From 1980 to 2005, as global demand steadily grew due to rising industrialization in countries like China, the price of Australian iron ore exports was on average $30 (USD) per dry metric ton, according to BHP Billiton. And once Chinese demand went into its supernova stage in the mid-2000s, the average price shot rose to $96 (USD) per dry metric ton from 2005 through early 2015. At its peak, Australian iron ore hit a high of $180 (USD) per dry metric ton. (By comparison, the average price over the past 35 years has been $49 (USD) per dry metric ton.) (For more, see: How the Iron Ore Market Works.)

Those heady days are well over now. Goldman Sachs analysts expect iron ore prices could fall by up to 30% through early 2017. Analysts predict iron ore prices to average $49 a ton in third-quarter 2015, $48 a ton in the fourth quarter and to sink to $44 a ton by second-quarter 2016 (which is also their prediction for 2016's overall average price).

RBC analysts have somewhat of a rosier outlook. They expect iron ore prices to average $55 per ton for 2015 and even rise slightly to $56 per ton for 2016. By 2019, RBC expects a market recovery to get underway, with prices then averaging $65 per ton.

Long-term Outlook

So while the next few years don’t look promising for iron ore producers, the sector's long-term outlook remains fundamentally positive. After all, developing countries will continue to have millions of their citizens move from rural environments into an urbanized and industrialized mode. As India, African and South American countries continue to expand their economies, they will need iron ore and steel products. Even China, despite its current problems, should keep being one of the world's largest consumers of iron ore, as its population keeps up the process of urbanization.

The Bottom Line

As the world economy develops, it fuels strong demand for iron ore. The problem is when China, the biggest driver of this growth this century, finally hits a bump in the road and its economy slows down. A substantial decline in demand for the metal puts deflationary pressures on iron ore prices for the short- to medium-term. However, once supply and demand get back into balance, the price of iron ore should likely continue its long upward march.

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文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/professionals/083115/chinese-slowdown-impacts-iron-ore-market.asp