为什么美国投资者担忧中国

 

美元贬值

在2008年金融危机后中国成为美国的一个大债主已经不是什么秘密了。现在中国是美国国债的最大持有国之一，持有1.3万亿美元美国国债。只要中国继续持有如此大量的美国国债，投资者就会认为美国经济受中国的支配。如果中国经济继续恶化，很可能出现中国倾售持有的国债的情况。美国国债的急速卖出将会使美元贬值，使投资者的投资组合价值下降。因为大多数美国企业依靠进口资源，美元贬值将会使资源更昂贵，从而造成利润和股价压力。然而，美国财政部仍然是中国能获得的最稳定和流动性资产，所以倾售只能用来稳定人民币。

通货紧缩

虽然中国和美国在外交问题上存在分歧，但是两个国家在广泛的贸易上建立了强烈的联系。两国2014年的双边贸易额达5900亿美元。作为美国对抗经济低增长时期的主要贸易伙伴，中国的制造商在过去6年中不断降低价格。近期，中国的低增长已经影响了石油和大宗商品的价格，使美国出现了潜在的通缩风险。随着美元的加息，将会给美国出口商与国际市场竞争造成苦难。因为价格越低越具有吸引力，长期看来公司必须降价以保持竞争力，导致利润率和股价的降低。这一连锁反应将会使政府重新考虑美元加息。

降低乐观情绪

在过去30年中，中国的经济增长速度平均为10%，高峰为13%。由于这一史无前例的增长速度，中国已成为全球第二大经济体和最大的原材料消费国，然而当这个经济体出现虚弱的信号，将会对全球经济产生连锁影响。经济疲软导致中国允许人民币更加自由的交易，导致大宗商品价格的下降并使贸易对手贬值他们的货币。这和经济增长放缓一起唤起美国投资者的怀疑。

在这些事件之前，许多人认为中国的经济数据是虚假的，政府吹嘘的数据远比真实情况好的多。中国近期的动作也没有取得效果，美国投资者的看法是中国政府助长了股市泡沫，这将迟早会爆发。这导致中国投资者撤出中国股票市场涌向美国房地产市场，引起美国房价暴涨。

总结

中国的经济曾被预测将会在短期超过美国。然而最近的事件导致投资者都很小心谨慎。随着中国市场近期的动荡，中国经济放缓被认为将成为全球经济动荡的催化剂。在所有的担忧中，中国的困难将会对美国经济造成持久影响，这也是中国从投资驱动型经济向消费驱动型经济转化必须克服的困难。

 

Why U.S. Investors are Concerned About China 

By Trevir Nath | November 11, 2015 

 

U.S. Dollar Devaluation 

It is no big secret that following the 2008 financial crisis China financed a large portion of America’s debt. Currently, the nation is one of the biggest holders of U.S. debt—holding $1.3 trillion of U.S. debt. As long as China continues to hold a massive amount of U.S. debt, investors believe the U.S. economy is at the mercy of China. If the Chinese economy continues to deteriorate, a worst case scenario can arise where China begins to dump their Treasury holdings. Selling U.S. debt at a rapid pace would devalue the domestic currency, resulting in downward pressure on your portfolio. Since the majority of U.S. businesses rely on imported resources, a declining U.S. dollar would make resources more expensive and thus put pressure on profits and share prices. However, the U.S. Treasury remains the most stable and liquid asset China could acquire, so a sell-off would only occur to stabilize the Yuan.

Deflation

While China and the U.S. have not always seen eye-to-eye on diplomatic issues, the two countries have a strong relationship built on extensive trade. Two-way trade between China and the United States amounted to $590 billion in 2014. As the United States’ primary trading partner struggles with low growth, Chinese manufacturers have slashed prices at the fastest rate in six years. Recently, low Chinese growth has depressed oil and commodity prices, creating a potential deflationary spillover to the United States. With U.S. interest rates on the verge of increasing, importing deflation would make it difficult for U.S. exporters to compete in the global markets. While cheaper prices may seem attractive, in the long-term companies will be forced to cut prices to remain competitive, resulting in lower profit margins and equity prices. This chain reaction would cause the government to re-evaluate their decision to raise interest rates until consumer spending returned to normal.

Decreased Optimism

Over the past 30 years, the Chinese economy had boasted average growth of nearly 10% with peaks of 13%. As a result of this unprecedented growth, China has grown into the second largest economy in the world and one of the biggest consumers of raw materials; however, when the second largest economy begins to show signs of weakness, this has a spillover effect on the global economy. China’s sluggishness has led the nation to allow its currency to trade more freely, prompting a decline in commodity prices and trading rivals to devalue their own currency. This, in conjunction with slowing growth, has invoked a shroud of skepticism amongst U.S. Investors.

Before these events, many believed Chinese economic data was all smoke and mirrors, perpetuated by the government’s inflated statistics to make the economy appear better than it was. China’s recent actions have not helped either, with U.S. investors under the impression the Chinese government helped inflate the stock market bubble, which appeared to erupt earlier this year. This in itself has led Chinese investors to retreat from the stock market and flood the U.S. real estate market, provoking inflating U.S. house prices.

The Bottom Line

China’s growth was predicted to pass the United States shortly. However, its recent blunders have caused investors to hold their breath. As markets throughout China have recently wavered, an economic slowdown in China is believed to be a catalyst to the economic turmoil around the world. Amid all the concern, China’s difficulties should not have long-lasting effects on the U.S. economy rather it is a hurdle China must overcome as it transitions from an investment led to a consumer driven economy.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/111115/why-us-investors-are-concerned-about-china.asp