利率上升将会对美元产生影响吗？

Matt Rego    2015年11月18日

在10月的美联储会议的强硬总结之后，市场至少该对2015年12月的利率上调做好准备。由于利率上调将会使借款和贷款成本增加，所以会直接影响消费者。

从这个角度看，利率上调将会使购买更加昂贵，例如住房和汽车，但是利率上调也发出经济增长前景乐观的信号。这也会提升商业信心使企业消费和招聘增加。利率上升将会影响经济的许多方面，那么他们是怎样影响美元价值呢？

利率上升对货币来说是利好事件

根据政府的经济报告，一个对货币最重要和最有影响报告是利率决定。和GDP、贸易平衡、失业率一样，利率决定引发货币市场的巨大运动。然而，观察1990年到2015年的美联储利率上调之后的美元表现会发现加息对美元有一定的削弱并且和传统现象相反。

在1994年，美联储开始加息然而美元在1995年初开始下跌。第二轮加息是在1997年，美元开始上升并持续到2001年。最后一次加息是在2003年到2006年之间，结果美元在其间下跌。简而言之，由于投资者可以获得更高的附带收益，加息对货币事件利好事件，在过去25年美元和联邦利率上调具有非传统的低相关性。

美元在下一次加息中很可能不会出现重大移动

当美联储再次进行加息，不要期望美元会出现实质性巨大变动。首先正如上面提到的，美国加息与美元有较低或者负相关性，而且美元在2014年末已经出现了巨大上升。自2014年末以来，美元指数已经从81美元上升到2015年11月的97.59美元。在一段时间曾超过100美元。这是货币市场的一个巨大变动，因为投资者在去年对加息抱有高度预期。分析人士和市场专家不断重复美元对加息的反映可能相对有限。

总结

美国的低利率持续了接近8年，当前现状是美国经济增长缓慢。利率上升将会为经济带来更多的积极信号，但是不要太过乐观，过去20年的经验告诉我们利率上升和美元的相关性非常低。事实上美元自2014年末已经进行了巨大上升，这将导致押注在美元将会进行另一个巨大上升的投资者非常失望。

Will a Hike in Interest Rates Affect the US Dollar? 

By Matt Rego | November 18, 2015   

After a particularly hawkish conclusion from the October 2015 U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, the markets are at least preparing for the real possibility that December 2015 could finally be the time when interest rates see an uptick. Rising rates have far-reaching implications for the U.S. and global economies. Rising interest rates tend to get a bad reputation due to the fact that borrowing and loan costs usually see an increase, thus directly affecting consumers.

From this standpoint, rising rates may make bigger purchases, such as houses or cars, more expensive, but rising rates also signal there is a positive outlook on the economy and growth is expected to continue. This vote of confidence can help spark more corporate spending and hiring down the line as business confidence also rises. While rising interest rates affect many aspects of the economy, how do they affect the value of the U.S. dollar?

Rising Interest Rates Prove to be Bullish Events for Currencies

In terms of government economic reporting, one of the most important and impactful reports on currencies is interest rate decisions. Along with gross domestic product (GDP), trade balance and unemployment figures, interest rate decisions have the ability to cause significant moves in the currency markets. However, when looking at the U.S. dollar’s performance after the Federal Reserve raised rates from 1990 to 2015, rate increases and their correlation to the U.S. dollar have certainly weakened and gone against the traditional phenomena.

In 1994, the Federal Reserve began increasing rates and then watched as the dollar sank through the beginning of 1995. By the time the next round of interest rate hikes came in 1997, the U.S. dollar was beginning a rally that would last through 2001. The last rising rate cycle between 2003 and 2006 was sandwiched between two recessions, and subsequently, the U.S. dollar lost value during that cycle. In short, while rising rates traditionally are very bullish for currencies, due to the fact that investors are able to obtain higher carry interest, the U.S. dollar and federal funds rate increases over the past 25 years have had a nontraditional low correlation.

U.S. Dollar Not Likely to See Major Move During Next Rate Increase

When the Federal Reserve once again enters a rising rate cycle, do not expect the U.S. dollar to sustain a substantial move. For one thing, as mentioned above, U.S. rate increases have had low to negative correlation with the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar has already sustained a massive rally since late 2014. Since late last 2014, the U.S. dollar index has rallied from around $81 to its current $97.59 in November 2015. At one point, the index was above $100. This is a substantial move in the currency markets, as investors have been highly anticipating a rate increase for the past year. Analysts and market pundits have continually reiterated there is a strong likelihood the dollar’s response to a rate increase could be relatively muted.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is the United States has been in a record low interest rate environment for almost eight years, and the U.S. economy’s sluggish growth actively reflects the current environment. Rising interest rates signal more confidence in the economy, but do not be fooled; rising rates are shown to have less correlation with the U.S. dollar over the past couple of decades. Tie in the fact the U.S. dollar has already seen a massive rally since late 2014 and this leads to the likelihood that investors who are betting on another sustained leg higher in the U.S. dollar rally are likely to be sorely disappointed.

本文翻译出自兄弟财经

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/111815/will-hike-interest-rates-affect-us-dollar.asp