欧洲新忧：葡萄牙

 希腊选择左翼反紧缩政府的六个月之后，差一点退出了欧元区。所以市场密切关注葡萄牙的发展前景就不足为奇了，因为作为欧洲紧缩政策的模范国家，葡萄牙正在取代与反紧缩左翼联盟的中右翼政府。11月9日，葡萄牙十年期国债的收益与社会民主党在10月4日议会选举中落选时相比，跃增53个基本点，达到了2.83%。在选举之后的几天内，股票市场略有上涨，但随后又下跌了近4%。虽然市场中存在恐慌，但瑞士信贷认为葡萄牙不会步希腊的后尘。 

今年十月，社会民主党人（主要为中右翼党派）赢得了选举，且葡萄牙总统重新任命了 Pedro Passos Coelho 首相。与此同时，投票排名第二的社会主义党与共产党和左翼集团达成了协议，共同合作以获得更多投票。11月10日，左翼联盟通过不信任投票推翻了 Coelho 政府。现在葡萄牙总统既不能建立 Coelho 为首的临时政府，也不能允许左翼联盟掌权。还有第三种可能：社会主义党接受 Coelho 的挑战，允许提前选举，这样可能使议会的结构更加稳定。

无论哪种方法获胜，发生政治动荡的可能性都很高。左翼的三个党派之间有很大的政治分歧，瑞士信贷认为，联合政府只能支撑几个月。左翼集团和共产主义党派都是反紧缩的疑欧派。共产主义党派试图将葡萄牙银行国有化，退出北约并进行外国债务重组。社会主义党稍微温和一些。社会主义党领导人及左翼联合政府的假定首相 Antonio Costa曾表示，新政府将通过债务重组与欧洲债权人对抗，以免重蹈希腊覆辙。 

但社会主义党人确实想要缓解财政紧缩。在过去的几年中，政府提高税收，改革国有企业，私有化资产，解雇10%的政府工作人员，削减公共部门的工资，并通过了一系列的私营部门改革，其中包括破产法和劳动法的修改。 

结果很令人满意。虽然三巨头欧洲央行、欧盟委员会及国际货币基金组织仍在监视其财政和金融政策，葡萄牙依旧在2014年5月退出了780亿欧元的欧盟救助计划。在过去的一年中，除开银行倒闭等一次性大额支出，葡萄牙的财政赤字为3.4%，较两年前的4.8%有所下降。借贷成本也大幅下降。虽然在选举之后政府债务增加了近3%，但却远低于2012年的两位数赤字。 

自2013年以来，葡萄牙的经济稳步上升，瑞士信贷预测在2016年时，葡萄牙的增速将超过欧元区1.8%-2%。自欧洲债务危机开始，葡萄牙的人工成本骤减，出口量飙升。截至2013年底，出口量已占全国经济的40%，而在危机之前只有30%。然而这个增长并不是外部驱动的。2015年第三季度，私人消费的增速达到了同比3.2%。2013年以来，消费者信心持续增长，失业率自1月的17.5%下降到9月的12.2%。 

瑞士信贷分析家在最近一份报告中表示：“我们相信，即使左翼联盟掌权，葡萄牙社会主义党也会保留足够的欧盟DNA来避免希腊在年初遇到的各种不稳定因素。”最后，欧洲央行的量化宽松政策很可能将借贷成本维持在较低的水平。葡萄牙为了逃出金融财政危机付出了很多，即使政府领导换届也不会改变这一进程。

Europe’s New Worry: Portugal 

In July, six months after Greece elected a left-wing, anti-austerity government, the country came perilously close to leaving the euro. So it’s easy to understand why markets are nervous at the prospect of Portugal, a poster child for European austerity, replacing its reform-friendly, center-right government with a left-wing, anti-austerity coalition. The yield on 10-year Portuguese government bonds jumped 53 basis points to peak at 2.83  percent on November 9 since the ruling Social Democrats lost their majority in the Portuguese Assembly in elections held October 4. (Yields have since dropped to 2.49 percent). The stock market rose for a few days after the election, but is down nearly 4 percent since then. Despite the market’s fears, however, Credit Suisse thinks it unlikely that Portugal is destined to follow in Greece’s footsteps. 

In October, the Social Democrats (the main center-right party) won the most votes of any party, and Portugal’s president reappointed Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho. It soon became clear, however, that the Social Democrats couldn’t form a stable government. Meanwhile, the Socialists, who received the next-largest share of votes, made a deal with the Communist Party and the Left Bloc, the latter of which has been compared to Greece’s populist Syriza party, to form a coalition with enough votes to govern. On November 10, the left-wing alliance pushed through a no-confidence vote to topple Coelho’s government. Portuguese President Aníbal Cavaco Silva can now either appoint a caretaker government headed by Coelho, which would need to find common ground with the Socialists and others to get anything done, or allow the left-wing alliance to take power. A third possibility: the Socialists accept Coelho’s challenge to allow early elections that might produce a more stable configuration in the Assembly. 

No matter which short-term outcome prevails, political instability is most likely ahead. The three left-wing parties have major policy differences, and Credit Suisse believes a coalition government would only last a few months. The Left Bloc and Communist Parties are anti-austerity Euroskeptics. The Communists campaigned on nationalizing Portuguese banks, dropping out of NATO, and restructuring foreign debt. The Socialists are more moderate. Antonio Costa, the leader of the Socialists and presumptive prime minister in a left-wing coalition government, has said the new government would not follow Greece’s example by forcing a confrontation with European creditors over debt restructuring.

The Socialists do want to ease off austerity, however. Over the last few years, the government has hiked taxes, overhauled state-owned enterprises, privatized assets, laid off 10 percent of government workers, cut public-sector salaries, and passed a slew of private-sector reforms, including changes to bankruptcy and labor laws.

The results have been impressive. Portugal exited its €78 billion European bailout in May 2014, though the so-called troika of the European Central Bank, European Commission, and International Monetary Fund continues to monitor the country’s finances and economic policies. Setting aside some one-time spending on big-ticket items over the past year, including a bailout for a failing bank, Portugal’s budget deficit is at 3.4 percent, down from 4.8 percent two years ago. Borrowing costs have also fallen dramatically. Though government debt yields climbed close to 3 percent following the elections, they’re nowhere close to the double-digit rates of 2012. 

The country’s economy has been growing steadily since 2013, and Credit Suisse’s predicts higher growth in Portugal than the euro zone in 2016, 2 percent to 1.8 percent. Portuguese labor costs have fallen sharply since the European debt crisis, and exports have soared. By the end of 2013, exports accounted for more than 40 percent of the economy, up from less than 30 percent before the crisis. But the recovery isn’t only externally-driven. Growth in private consumption accelerated to 3.2 percent, year-over-year, in the third quarter of 2015, the largest increase since 2010. Consumer confidence has been climbing since 2013, with unemployment falling from a peak of 17.5 percent in January of that year to 12.2 percent in September – still high, but a marked improvement no less. 

A left-wing government might raise government workers’ salaries and reduce those taxes that the previous administration raised in an effort to reduce the deficit, but European monitoring and the Socialists’ stated desire to avoid a Greece-style crisis make a complete reversal of austerity measures unlikely. Portugal’s private-sector reforms are also likely to stay. “Even if a leftist coalition were to govern, we believe the Portuguese Socialist has a sufficiently strong European DNA to avoid more fundamental uncertainties that were present in the Greek crisis earlier this year,” say Credit Suisse analysts in a recent report. Finally, the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program is likely to keep borrowing costs relatively low. Portugal has done a considerable job digging itself out of an economic and fiscal crisis, and a change in government isn’t likely to derail that progress. 

文章翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：https://www.thefinancialist.com/europes-new-worry-portugal/#sthash.PnTrToMq.dpuf