全球经济增长放缓对收益率意味着什么？

2015-11-25 15:30:38

Russ Koesteric 2015年11月18日

在巴黎恐怖袭击后充满不确定性的一周中，一件事是确定的：美国经济仍然相对反弹，而全球经济持续下滑。上周经合组织做出了三个月内对全球经济增长预测的第二次削减，今年降低到2.9%而2016年降低到3.3%，原来的预测均为3.6%。

一部分问题出现在新兴市场，作为过去十年经济增长的大部分动力的新兴市场增长持续下降。上周中国经济增长放缓出现了更多的迹象。出口同比下降3.6%，而且通胀和工业生产都在下降。在其他地方，周五巴黎的多处恐怖袭击增加了全球恐怖主义的威胁。从经济角度看来，这些恐怖袭击会对法国和欧元区经济造成压力。

同时，全球经济疲软正在影响市场并对投资组合有多个含义，正如我在新的一周评论中写到的“收益率仍然热销的商品。”

随着美元变得强势，温和的增长迫使分析师降低2016年的收益预测。彭博社数据显示过去两周对2016年标准普尔500的收益预测已经下跌了2个百分点。美元将会进一步强势，全球经济将会继续疲软。

此外，全球经济疲软意味着世界各地的中央银行将会施行更多的货币宽松政策。即使在美联储加息之前，欧洲、日本和中国央行的宽松政策将会给美元带来上升压力，导致事实上的货币紧缩政策。而同时，强势的美元有助于抑制通胀。

这对投资者意味着什么呢，请记住一下三点。

全球经济增长放缓的影响

周期性商品的压力

全球经济增长疲软和通胀率偏低继续对大宗商品价格造成压力，尤其是依赖经济增长的商品，例如工业金属和石油价格。

不变的长期利率

在通胀和收益率偏低的环境中，投资者很可能进行收益率延伸。例子：上周以道琼斯公用事业指数来衡量的公用事业股票销量有所增加并且收益上升。尽管该行业仍然价格偏高，投资者也愿意对相对安全的股息支付额外费用。

投资组合收益率的持续需求

我不追求公用事业和消费必需品那样的完美收益，其他部分的收益空间更有吸引力。例如，以美国标准普尔优先股指数衡量的优先股受到相当的重视，并且提供获利的机会。由于经济增长持续疲软，我认为收益率仍将是个有价值的商品。

What Slow Global Growth Means for Portfolios

By Russ Koesterich | November 18, 2015

As we head into a new week filled with uncertainty after the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris, one thing is clear: While U.S. growth remains relatively resilient, global growth continues to slip. Last week the OECD cut its estimate of global growth for the second time in three months. The organization now expects the global economy to grow 2.9 percent this year and 3.3 percent in 2016, down from previous estimates of 3.6 percent for both years.

Part of the problem is that emerging markets, an engine of growth for much of the past decade, continue to decelerate. Last week provided more evidence of the slowdown in China. Exports are now down 3.6 percent from a year earlier while both inflation and industrial production are decelerating, according to Bloomberg data. Elsewhere, Friday’s multiple terrorist attacks in Paris reinforce the significant threat that global terrorism represents throughout the world. From an economic perspective, the fallout from these attacks will likely put some pressure on the French economy as well as the euro.

In the meantime, the sluggish global environment is impacting markets and has several implications for portfolios, as I write in my new weekly commentary, “Yield: One Commodity That’s Still Hot.”

Along with a strong dollar, tepid growth is pushing down analysts’ estimates for 2016 earnings. Estimates for S&P 500 2016 earnings have fallen by 2 percentage points over the past five weeks, Bloomberg data show. Should the dollar continue to rise and/or global growth remain sluggish, they may have further to fall.

In addition, slow global growth implies more monetary easing by most of the world’s central banks. Even before the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises rates, easing by central banks in Europe, Japan and China may put further upward pressure on the dollar, resulting in a de facto monetary tightening. In turn, a strong dollar is helping to keep a lid on inflation.

As for what this means for investors, three implications are top of mind.

The Impact of Slower Global Growth

Pressure on Cyclical Commodities

Sluggish global growth and muted inflation continue to put pressure on commodity prices, particularly those most exposed to global growth, like prices for industrial metals and oil.

Contained Long-Term Rates

In an environment in which inflation is modest and yields remain low, investors are likely to continue to stretch for yield. Case in point: Last week utility stocks, as measured by the Dow Jones U.S. Utilities Index, managed to buck the broader selling and post a small gain, according to numbers via Bloomberg. Though the sector remains expensive, in a low yield world, investors are more willing to pay a premium for companies with relatively safe dividends.

Continued Desire for Yield in Portfolios

While I wouldn’t chase classic yield plays like utilities or consumer staples, other parts of the yield space look more interesting. For example, preferred stock, as measured by the S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index, appears reasonably valued, and offers an opportunity to seek yield. To the extent that growth remains sluggish, I believe that yield is likely to remain a valuable commodity.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/markets/111815/what-slow-global-growth-means-portfolios.asp