购买瑞士法郎进行长期投资的风险和回报

 

在2015年1月之前，瑞士法郎有汇率限制，现在已经被取消了。当时瑞士法郎和欧元的汇率限制是1.20瑞士法郎兑一欧元。自从这一限制被取消，瑞士法郎的价值开始下跌。瑞士法郎是欧洲一种重要的货币，由于其强度和瑞士银行提供的低利率，吸引其他国际的公民对其进行投资和抵押贷款。

 

瑞士的政策制定者制定了一些机构监管其金融市场，包括瑞士金融监督管理局和瑞士国家银行，他们负责瑞士的货币政策。在国家层面上，瑞士有一个高度透明的国家财务信息报告，而且这些信息以多语言大范围向公众开放以吸引外国投资者。

 

风险

对持有美元的人来说，投资瑞士法郎非常有吸引力，因为美元和瑞士法郎的汇率有短期波动。自1999年开始，这个汇率的每月平均变化为1.95%，这高于瑞士法郎和欧元平均0.85%的汇率变化。从2015年1月到2015年10月，瑞士法郎兑美元的汇率维持在一瑞士法郎兑换93到98美分之间。在长期上，瑞士法郎自2010年10月起兑美元价值下降了0.04%，自1995年起下降了15%。瑞士法郎展示出对美元周期性的强势和疲软。但是汇率的变化是循序渐进的，瑞士法郎最强势的时间出现在5年强度增长之后的2001年。

 

2014年瑞士法郎最大的买家是德国、美国和法国，分别买入了总货币出口的21.2%、14.1%、8.5%。最近瑞士法郎价值的增加反映了瑞士央行总资产自2013年到2014年14%的增长。瑞士央行把外汇投资的货币从2013年的443万亿瑞士法郎增加到2014年的510万亿。

 

想要投资瑞士法郎的投资者应该理解这种持久的模式和每个月的低波动。从纵观历史的角度来看，瑞士法郎从1920年的6.48美元逐渐下跌，该货币在2014年6月达到89美分的最低点。

 

投资者目前投资瑞士法郎最大的风险是瑞士法郎价值恢复可能是伴随欧洲整体经济衰退的好转。最近瑞郎的低点可能被延伸到将来。欧元区在过去五年中提供了许多过于乐观的预测。

 

2015年11月，瑞士央行主席Thomas Jordan表示瑞郎的价值是被高估的并且可能采取干预措施。瑞士央行当前的货币政策目标是实现长期结果，但是对瑞士法郎感兴趣的投资者应该考虑这些措施能取得怎样的结果。

 

Thomas Jordan的声明表明瑞士法郎可能发生第二次修正并形成长期利率。尽管这对那些认为瑞士市场周期将进入进一步积极增长的瑞士法郎的长期投资者是个好消息，但是不能确定瑞士央行的措施会像Thomas Jordan想象的那样成功。

 

回报

截至2015年11月，瑞士的利率是全球最低的-0.75%，之前曾停留在0利率阶段多年。尽管其被成为避险货币，但是瑞士法郎的前景仍然不能确定。毫无疑问其整体强度掌握在瑞士银行手中，但是汇率的下跌和其负利率使投资者的兴趣下降。最近由于其他国家经济糟糕的发展将资金投入到瑞士法郎表明投资者对未来经济的恐惧。瑞士经济一部分依靠对全球经济有负面影响的危机中的反弹。投资者不应该在欧洲其他部分出现积极信号之前对瑞士法郎投入过多热情。

 

对当前瑞士央行货币政策有信心的投资者的潜在回报时将产生一个稳定增长的环境。投资者正在等待由于欧洲经济互相依赖的特点在低增长率影响每个国家之后出现欧洲经济总体改善。

 

Buying Swiss Francs as a Long-Term Investment: Risks & Rewards 

By Melissa Parietti 

 

The Swiss franc (CHF) has long been considered a stable currency in the global economy and is often purchased by investors when the stability of other foreign currencies is at risk due to adverse economic or political environments. The franc's stability is due to measures by the Swiss Central Bank to control the currency's value and Switzerland's political and financial stability.

 

Prior to January 2015, there was a minimum floor on the franc's value, which has since been removed. The floor supported an exchange rate between the euro and the Swiss franc of 1.20 CHF per euro. Since this floor was removed, the Swiss franc's value has dropped. The Swiss franc is an important currency in Europe; its strength, combined with low interest rates offered by Swiss banks, has attracted investments and mortgages from people in other countries such as Poland and the Baltic nations.

 

Switzerland's policymakers have mandated several institutions to oversee the proper regulation of the country's financial markets, including the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FIMA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which is responsible for carrying out the country's monetary policy. On the national level, Switzerland has a high degree of transparency in reporting financial information, and it makes available to the public a wide range of data in several languages to support and attract foreign investment.

 

Risks

Investment in Swiss francs for those holding American dollars is particularly attractive because there has been low short-term volatility in the exchange rate between the dollar and the Swiss franc. Since 1999, the average monthly change in the exchange rate of the dollar and the Swiss franc has been 1.95%, which is higher than the monthly change in exchange rate between the euro and the Swiss franc of 0.85%. From January 2015 to October 2015, one Swiss franc had an exchange rate between 93 cents and 98 cents in American currency. In the long term, the Swiss franc has declined in value against the dollar by 0.04% since October 2010, 45% since October 2000 and 15% since October 1995. The Swiss franc has shown cyclical periods of strength and weakness against the dollar. But movements of the exchange-rate changes have been gradual, with the strongest Swiss franc appearing in June 2001 after a five-year increase in strength.

An investor looking to place funds into the Swiss franc should do so with awareness of this enduring pattern of gradual volatility and low month-to-month volatility. An extended look at the Swiss franc shows that the currency has been on a decline from a high of $6.48 in December 1920; the currency hit a low of 89 cents in June 2014.

 

In 2014, the biggest purchasers of Swiss francs were Germany, the United States and France, with each country purchasing 21.2%, 14.1% and 8.5%, respectively, of Switzerland's total currency exports. The recent increase in strength of the Swiss franc likely reflects the increase in the SNB's total assets from 2013 to 2014 by 14% and an increase of banknote circulation by 2 trillion Swiss francs. The SNB increased the value of its foreign currency investments from 443 trillion Swiss francs to 510 trillion Swiss francs from 2013 to 2014.

 

The largest risk to investors at this time is that the time it takes the Swiss franc to regain strength will be extended in light of the overall recessionary behavior occurring in Europe. The recent low that the Swiss franc hit may be prolonged or amplified for a new record low in the near future in conjunction with poor developments in Europe. The eurozone has offered several overly optimistic projections for the future in the past five years.

 

In November 2015, SNB President Thomas Jordan stated that the Swiss franc was overvalued and that measures would be taken to intervene. The SNB's current monetary policy goals are aimed at achieving long-term results, but investors interested in the Swiss franc should consider how effective these measures might be in light of the failing economies in Europe, recessionary activity in Europe and the current negative interest rates on deposits in Switzerland. The effectiveness of a negative interest rate may be compromised when concurrently deployed with a weak European economy.

 

Jordan's statement suggests that a second correction of the Swiss franc is likely to make itself seen in the form of a low exchange rate. While this is positive news for long-term investors who may be interested in purchasing Swiss francs assuming that the nation's market cycle will promote future positive growth, it is uncertain if the measures taken by the SNB will be as successful as Jordan hopes they will be.

 

Rewards

Switzerland's interest rates are the lowest in the world as of November 2015 at -0.75%, after being stuck at 0% for several years prior. Despite retaining its reputation as a safe haven of currencies, the future outlook of the Swiss franc remains uncertain. There is little dispute of the overall strength and power wielded in European markets by Swiss banks, but the falling exchange rate of the Swiss franc in conjunction with the country's negative interest rate offers curtailed enthusiasm for investors. Recent moves to pour funds into the Swiss franc because of poor developments in other countries is a signal that investors are trading on negative fear of the future economy. Switzerland's economy depends in part on the rebound from former crises that have negatively affected global economies. Investors should not offer overly enthusiastic confidence in the Swiss franc before positive developments have hit the remainder of Europe.

 

The potential future reward for an investor exists in confidence in the SNB's current monetary policy to create an environment for long-term growth. Investors are waiting for overall improvement in European economies following low growth rates that have affected every nation in Europe due to the interdependent nature of Europe's economies.

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/120915/buying-swiss-francs-longterm-investment-risks-rewards.asp