购买欧元进行长期投资的风险和回报

欧元是世界上交易第二广泛的货币，在1999年进入市场后经历了巨大的波动。其兑换价值在2008年达到最高点，为1：1.6。在那之后，欧元价值巨幅下降。2015年11月，欧元兑美元在1.06到1.10之间。

 

投资外国货币的最直接方式是通过外汇交易市场。外汇交易市场和股票交易市场不同，由于外汇市场的性质，投资者对冲货币寸头以减小风险。

 

世界范围的货币也像股票和债券一样向投资者开放。这种投资方式不那么直接同时也因为投资工具的不同带有不同风险和回报。国内银行有时候会提供外国货币的定期存款。

 

风险

想要进行任何金融工具的长期投资，你必须做好充分的调查以确定最有利的时间进行交易。通过进行更小份额的投资和根据市场发展增加新的份额或者投资，你将从管理货币或者工具的潜在表现的预见中受益。当你进行货币长期投资，你将失去这种获得更有吸引力收益的能力。

 

欧元的波动反映欧盟成员国的经济状况。近来，几个欧盟成员国，例如希腊和西班牙，经历了严重的经济危机。进行欧元的长期投资，你必须考虑对欧元价值可能有负面影响的未来债务和政治稳定事件。确定你能承受欧元多大的负面价值下降，同样，如果欧元价值上升怎么保持仓位。

 

现有的投资退出界限应该是灵活的以适应未来事件，例如一些成员国的金融危机和衰退。如果在你的投资策略关闭仓位时间之前几年出现高度有利的退出机会，那么你就该退出。几年之后的合适水平是不可预见的，计划退出时间的欧元疲软可能使你遭受额外的损失。

 

不是所有的欧洲国家都加入了欧盟。立陶宛在2015年1月才加入。长期投资欧元的一个风险是你需要用当前欧元区国家经济强度加上未加入欧元区国家经济强度计算未来市场经济强度，包括保加利亚、克罗地亚、捷克共和国、丹麦、匈牙利、波兰、罗马尼亚、瑞典和英国。

 

总得来说，欧元区表现出进入另一个经济衰退的迹象。这正好和欧洲中央银行主席Mario Draghi在2011年任职以来的反复声明相反。2015年4月版的《世界经济展望》称欧盟的一些成员国正在遭受高债务、银行疲软、低经济增长和低产出增长，而且当前的预测没有展示明显的复苏。2013年，有些数据指出欧洲金融市场正在走向复苏，但是最终没有实现。如果你投入大笔资金到欧元中，做好市场变化与经济权威人士预测相反的情况，做出不受政治人物影响的预测。

 

很有可能影响这些条件的是欧元区0.05%的低利率。美国在2013年和2014年经历了比欧元区更大复苏，美国的产出是2.4%而欧元区是0.9%。国际货币基金组织预测2016年美国的经济增长3.1%而欧元区是1.5%。

 

回报

目前欧元并没有处于一个良好的状态。其兑换率反映出欧元区成员国经济的疲软。这不意味着欧元在未来20到30年将会持续这种状态。长期投资最有利的是你可能从潜在的随时发生的大规模波动中受益，你可以在欧元强势时退出投资获利。进行欧元长期投资的潜在重大回报很有可能是10几年后的经济复苏而不是几年。

 

欧盟已经向银行注入了数以万亿的长期贷款，再融资操作，是政府债券和资产抵押债券计划的量化宽松购买计划。绝大多数的资金花在资产上，包括新兴经济体的资产。所有这些开支可能对欧元区有积极的影响。对投资者来说，这些措施何时和怎样以帮助欧元区经济的形势出现非常重要。

 

在很长一段时间，都是亏损和下跌的修正阶段。带有适合未来成员国发展和经济增长政策发展的灵活退出策略的长期欧元投资将会获得回报。

 

Buying Euros as a Long-Term Investment: Risks and Rewards 

By Melissa Parietti 

The euro, the world's second-most commonly traded currency, has experienced significant periods of volatility since its introduction to international markets in 1999. Its strength against the dollar hit a high in July 2008, when one euro was worth $1.60. Since that time, the euro has dropped significantly in value. In November 2015, the euro traded between $1.06 and $1.10, with the value of the currency losing strength at the end of the month.

 

The most direct method of investing in a foreign currency is through the foreign exchange market (forex). The forex is different from the stock market; due to the interrelated nature of the currency markets, investors hedge positions in pairs of currencies to mitigate risk.

 

Countries worldwide also make investments such as stock shares and bonds available to foreign investors. This method of investing in currencies is less direct and also carries the risks and potential rewards associated with the specific investment vehicle. Domestic banks, at times, offer certificates of deposit (CDs) that are based in foreign currencies.

 

Risk

To open a long-term position into any financial instrument, you must complete adequate due diligence research to ascertain the most advantageous time to enact the transaction. By breaking investments into smaller portions and adding on to a position or opening new ones based on developments in the market, you benefit from using new insight to manage the potential performance of an instrument or a currency. When you open a long-term position in a currency, you lose this valuable ability in exchange for the pursuit of more attractive gains.

 

The volatility of the euro reflects the economic status of the member nations of the European Union. As of late, several nations in Europe, such as Greece and Spain, have experienced severe financial crises. By taking a long-term position in the euro, you must consider future debt and political instability issues of member nations that may negatively impact the value of the euro. Decide how much of a negative decline in the value of the euro you are willing to tolerate before exiting the position – and likewise, if the potential strengthening of currency value following a crisis warrants keeping the position.

 

The horizon of exit of the investment should be flexible by several years to manage future upsets such as financial crises in member nations and recessions. If a highly favorable exit is available a few years prior to the date of the planned closing of a long-term position, then your strategy should allow the position to be closed at that time. A comfort zone of several years following an unforeseen weakening of the euro at the planned time of exit would allow you to hedge against additional losses by being forced to exit when the euro is weak.

 

Not all European nations have entered the European Union. Lithuania only entered in January 2015. A significant risk associated with a long-term position in the euro is that you will have to project the future strength of markets currently in the eurozone in addition to the strength of nations that have yet to enter the eurozone, and use the euro as their currency, including Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

 

Overall, the eurozone has shown signs of entering into yet another recessionary period. This runs counter to repeated statements made by the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, since he took the position in 2011. The April 2015 edition of the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that several nations in the European Union are still suffering from high debt, weak banks, low growth and low growth of output, and current projections do not point toward significant recovery. In 2013, several figures – including the IMF – made statements suggesting that a recovery in European financial markets was underway, though this is not what eventually developed. If you are placing sums of money into the euro, be prepared for market changes that are counter to the forecasts of popular economic authority figures, and make decisions without partiality to the opinions of political leaders.

 

Likely impacting these conditions is the euro area's low interest rate of 0.05%. The United States has experienced a recovery more significant than the euro area's in 2013 and 2014, with output at 2.4% in the U.S. and 0.9% in the euro area. The IMF's projections for 2016 set growth at 3.1% in the U.S. and 1.5% in the euro area.

 

Rewards

As it stands, the euro is not in good shape. Its exchange rate reflects the weakened state of the eurozone's member nations. This does not mean that the eurozone will be in such a state over the next 20 to 30 years. The most advantageous aspect of investing for the long term is that you may benefit from potentially realized large swings occurring over time, and you may exit the position when you perceive that the euro is at its strongest against the dollar. The potential for significant rewards realized by holding a long-term position in the euro is based on the likelihood of recovery over decades rather than over years.

 

The European Union has poured trillions into long-term loans to banks, refinancing operations, a quantitative easing purchase plan of government bonds and covered-bond programs. A vast majority of the funds spent have been on assets, including assets in emerging economies. All of this spending is likely to have a positive effect on the eurozone. For investors, it is a matter of when and how these measures will emerge in European markets as a means of helping economies and the euro.

 

Over long periods of time, there tend to be corrections to periods of downturn and loss. The potential rewards of investing in the euro are better-suited for a long-term position with a flexible exit to accommodate future developments in member nations and future plans announced by policymakers to support growth in production and desired rates of inflation.

 

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/120915/buying-euros-longterm-investment-risks-and-rewards.asp?layout=orig