投资原油期货的风险和回报

John Edwards 

交易原油期货使用高杠杆。很可能在短时间内获得巨大的利润或者损失。原油价格因波动性巨大而臭名昭著。它很容易在一个交易日移动5%到10%。原油价格对政治和经济新闻以及周存储和产量报告格外敏感。

交易原油期货承担巨大的风险。如果价格运动方向与投资者下单方向相反需要巨额的保证金，否则可能爆仓。然而，有一些策略可以定义资金风险。想要投资原油期货的投资者需要了解他们怎么运转和其中的风险。

原油合约说明

期货合约是一个在未来以预定价格出售或买进特定大宗商品或者金融工具的协议。期货合约是标准的，能在交易所进行交易。有些期货合约以实物交付结算，另外的则根据合约的最终价格以资金结算。

一份原油期货合约代表着1000桶原油在未来某个时间交付。原油合约每1美元的价格移动等于1000美元。假设一个投资者在50美元买入某个原油合约。如果价格下跌到48美元，该投资者在这次操作中将会损失2000美元。

原油合约在纽约商品交易所交易。这里有美国轻质原油和布伦特原油合约。两个合约都是实物交付。许多投资者不希望实物交付如此多的原油。因此投资者需要注意合约的交付和到期日期。投资者需要把仓位延期到下一个月或者关闭仓位。

交易原油期货的保证金

期货交易中需要使用保证金。投资者需要支付合约价值的部分比例以开立仓位，这被称为初始保证金。保证金作为一个金融抵押以保证合约的买入或者卖出人遵守合约条款。2015年10月起轻质原油的初始保证金在4500美元左右。这是整个期货合约价值的10%。交易所根据潜在商品的价格和波动修改初始保证金。

投资者必须在账户保留足够资金以维持仓位。这被成为维持保证金金额，通常会比初始保证金少一点。如果账户价值下降到低于维持保证金金额，投资者将会接到追加保证金要求。投资者必须投入更多的资金以达到保证金要求或者以一个亏损价格关闭仓位，这是交易期货的风险。

原油差价期权交易

投资者可以交易原油日历差价期权。日历期权是在不同的月份买进和卖出两个原油合约。例如，一个投资者可以在买进一个12月原油合约并同时来年6月卖出它。该投资者寻求从12月到来年6月的原油价格上升中获利。如果合约施加更长，则差价期权的波动性更大。日历组合需要的保证金比普通交易的保证金低。例如，在2015年12月买进在2016年5月卖出的原油合约的保证金在2015年10月为850美元。这个保证金要求比直接买进或者卖出合约要低得多。原油差价期权的流动性更大，所以更容易交易。

保证金要求较低的原因是认为两份合约之间的价格差异降低。如果发生未能预料到的影响原油价格的经济和政治事件，很有可能合约的价格可能上升或者下降到同一程度。然而，交易日历差价期权仍然存在巨大的风险，两份合约之间的月份可能有价格大规模移动。投资者可能损失大量资金并被要求追加保证金。

期权套利

还有一个非常活跃的石油期货合约期权市场。投资者可以通过买卖原油垂直期权管理风险。例如，一个投资者相信原油期货合约的价格在12月会炒年糕50美元上升到5美元。他可以在50美元买入看涨期权并在55美元卖出，获得750美元的溢价。这被称为借方差价。

此次交易中投资者能赚取的最大金额是5000美元减去750的溢价和佣金以及其他费用。投资者不会损失除了这750美元溢价和佣金以及成本外的任何其他费用。这使得投资者能明确交易中处于风险的资金金额。

看跌投资者可以进行反向操作。该投资者可以在50美元卖出55美元买入。这被称为信用差价，因为投资者在其账户收到750美元作为信用。如股票期权的到期日期价格低于50美元，投资者保存所有的卖出溢价，如果高于55美元，投资者将损失5000美元减去750美元的溢价，加上佣金和费用。这是投资者可能损失的最大金额。这种期权策略的有点是在时间衰减中受益，也就是期权价值随着到期日来临逐渐降低。

Investing in Crude Oil Futures: The Risks and Rewards 

By John Edwards 

Trading crude oil futures uses a high degree of leverage. It is possible for those who trade crude oil futures to make and lose substantial amounts of money in a very short period of time. The price of crude oil is notorious for its volatility. It can easily move 5 to 10% in a single trading session. Crude is especially sensitive to breaking political and economic news, as well as to weekly storage and production reports.

Trading oil futures entails a substantial amount of risk. An investor may need to meet a margin call if a position goes against him, or the position may be liquidated at a loss. However, there are some strategies that can define the amount of capital at risk. Investors who want to invest in crude oil futures should understand how they work and the risks involved.

Crude Oil Contract Specifications

A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a specific commodity or another financial instrument at a predetermined price in the future. Futures contracts are standardized, which allows them to be traded on an exchange. Some futures contracts are settled by delivery of the physical asset, and others are settled by cash according to the final price of the contract.

A crude oil futures contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil deliverable at some point in the future, depending on the contract month. A $1 move in the price of the oil contract equals $1,000. Assume an investor is long one contract of crude oil at $50. If the price of oil goes to $48, the investor will be behind $2,000 on the position.

The contracts are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) exchange. There are futures contracts on both light sweet crude oil and Brent crude oil. Both contracts are settled by physical delivery of the oil. Most investors do not want to be responsible for the physical delivery of this much crude oil. Investors must therefore pay attention to contract delivery and expiration dates. An investor should roll the position to another month or otherwise close out the position before expiration.

Margins for Trading Oil Futures

Futures contracts entail the use of margin for trading. The investor must place a percentage of the contract's value into his account to open a position; this is known as the initial margin. The margin serves as a financial guarantee that the buyer or seller of the contract will meet obligations under the contract's terms. The initial margin on a light sweet oil contract is around $4,500 as of October 2015. This represents about 10% of the value of an oil futures contract. The initial margins are subject to modification by the exchange depending on the price and volatility of the underlying commodity.

The investor must keep enough money in the account to maintain the position. This is known as the maintenance margin amount, which is generally a little lower than the initial margin amount. If the value of the account dips below the maintenance margin amount, the investor will receive a margin call. An investor must place more money in the account to meet the margin call and maintain the position or otherwise close the position out at a loss, which is a risk of trading futures.

Oil Spread Trading

One option for investors may be to trade calendar spreads in oil. A calendar spread is buying and selling two contracts for oil with deliveries in different months. For example, an investor may buy an oil contract for December and sell it for next June at the same time. The investor is seeking to profit from the price of oil in December going up versus the price of oil in June. If the contract months are further away, there is a greater potential volatility of the spread. Calendar spreads may require less margin than just buying or selling a single oil futures contract. For example, the initial margin required to buy a December 2015 oil contract and sell a May 2016 oil contract is $850 as of October 2015. This is a much lower margin requirement than buying or selling an oil futures contract outright. There is a great deal of liquidity in oil spreads, so they are easy to trade. These spreads are traded by oil producers, speculators and commodity funds rolling their positions.

The reason for the lower margin requirement is that there is hypothetically less volatility in the movement of the price differential between the two contracts. If there is an unexpected political or economic event that impacts the price of oil, there is a high degree of likelihood that the prices of the oil contracts will rise and fall together to some extent. However, there is still a substantial amount of risk in trading oil calendar spreads; prices between contract months have the potential to make large moves. An investor can still lose a lot of money by trading oil spreads and may be required to meet margin calls if a position goes against him.

Option Spreads

There is also a very active market for options on oil futures contracts. An investor may be able to manage his risk by buying or selling covered vertical option spreads on oil. For example, an investor may believe that the price of oil will rise from $50 to $55 on the December oil futures contract. The investor could buy the $50 call option while simultaneously selling the $55 call option for a net premium of $750. This is known as a debit spread, since the investor is paying the premium to hold the spread.

The maximum amount of money the investor can make on the position is $5,000 less the $750 in premium paid for the spread, less the commissions and other costs. The investor cannot lose any more than the $750 in premium paid plus the commissions and costs. This spread allows the investor to define the amount of capital that he is risking on the trade.

An investor who is bearish on the price of oil could flip the trade over. The investor could sell the $50 call option and buy the $55 call option for a net credit of $750, less commissions and costs. This is known as a credit spread, since the investor receives the $750 as a credit in his account. If the price of oil is below $50 upon the option expiration date, the investor gets to keep the entire amount of the sold premium. The investor cannot make any more money than this amount. However, if the price of oil is above $55 upon expiration, the investor will lose $5,000 less the $750 received for the premium, plus the commissions and costs. This is the maximum the investor can lose, which is still a substantial amount. The advantage of this type of option strategy is that it benefits from time decay, which is the loss in option value moving towards the expiration date.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/120215/investing-crude-oil-futures-risks-and-rewards.asp