油价逼近2009年以来的最低点

在上周原油出口国宣布维持当前产量后，油价进一步下跌，创下了7年以来的新低。 

在纽约商品交易所，一月到期的西德克萨斯中质油 CLF6 下跌2.32美元（5.8%），达到一桶37.65美元。这是九月以来单日跌幅最大的一天。 

在伦敦洲际交易所，一月到期的布伦特原油 LCOF6 下跌2.27美元（5.3%），达到一桶40.73美元。

上周 WTI 和 Brent 的油价皆下跌了约4.2%，尚未跌破2009年2月以来的最低点。 

石油输出国组织（OPEC）周五在维也纳举行会议，并做出决定，即使市场供大于求，也要维持当前产量。会议结束后，西德州中质原油下跌2.7%，而布伦特原油期货下跌1.9%。 

瑞杰金融集团的能源分析家 Luana Siegfried 表示：“不幸的是，会议仅仅重申了 OPEC 保护市场份额的策略。最有希望挽救油价的是供需曲线，而 OPEC 不顾当前疲软的需求，仍维持供大于求的现状。” 

此前 OPEC 的产量上限是每天3000万桶，但据市场估计，成员们的实际产量已接近3150万桶。分析家认为，OPEC 的决策就是默认了生产过剩的合法性。 

德国商业银行分析家在周一表示：“没有结果就是好结果，在 OPEC 当前的情况下，也不会有更糟的结果了。” 

但油价过低还是会对产量造成些许影响。美国政府周一发布的月度数据表明，国内页岩油产量将在一月份减少11.6万桶，降至每天486.1万桶。 

MV金融的投资策略和调研部主管 Katrina Lamb 表示：“WTI 的油价将在40美元附近徘徊。” 

如果油价偶尔突破下限她也不会感到惊讶，因为会议的反应和其他势力会在随后的几周里影响油价，但她认为，直到明年油价都会在40美元至60美元的区间内波动。 

Lamb 说：“考虑到 OPEC 会议后的受伤情绪，我们不能忽略 OPEC 本身会给油价带来怎样的动荡。” 

在纽约商品期货交易所，石油产品价格都出现大幅下跌，一月到期的汽油 RBF6 下跌了6.1美分（4.8%），达到每加仑1.209美元。一月到期的燃料油 HOF6 下跌了6.3美分（4.7%），达到每加仑1.28美元。

一月到期的天然气 NGF16 下跌11.9美分（5.4%），达到每百万英热单位2.067美元。 

Oil settles at lowest levels since early 2009 

Oil futures plunged further on Monday to mark their lowest settlements in nearly 7 years, in the aftermath of the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries last week to keep crude production running at current levels. 

January West Texas Intermediate crude CLF6, +0.35% dropped $2.32, or 5.8%, to settle at $37.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was the largest one-day percentage loss since September. 

January Brent crude LCOF6, +0.61% fell $2.27, or 5.3%, to end at $40.73 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. 

WTI and Brent prices, which each lost about 4.2% last week, haven’t settled at levels this low since February 2009, based on the most-active contracts. 

On Friday, WTI crude settled 2.7% lower while Brent futures lost 1.9% after OPEC, at its meeting in Vienna, agreed to maintain a ceiling that reflects “current actual production” even as the market struggles with oversupply. 

“Unfortunately, the meeting just restates that OPEC is stuck to their strategy of protecting market share,” said Luana Siegfried, energy analyst at Raymond James. The decision “most likely will keep a lid on crude prices as the supply side of the supply/demand curve ... will remain glutted, not being totally absorbed by weak demand.” 

OPEC previously had a production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, but members have been producing closer to 31.5 million barrels a day, according to market estimates. Analysts have concluded that the decision essentially legitimizes the cartel’s overproduction. 

“No result is also a result, and in the case of OPEC it is hard to imagine a more negative one,” said Commerzbank commodity analysts in a Monday note. “If in a critical situation OPEC cannot even agree on a lowest common denominator such as an official production limit, it is permissible to question its right to exist. In any case, the oil price looks likely to find virtually no support from OPEC in the coming months.” 

Still, the low prices do seem to be having an impact on production. Monthly data released Monday by the U.S. government showed that domestic shale-oil output is expected to fall by 116,000 barrels a day to 4.861 million barrels a day in January. 

As for prices, Katrina Lamb, head of investment strategy and research at MV Financial, said there seems to be “a fairly retractable support level for WTI not too far from $40.” 

She said she wouldn’t be too surprised to see occasional breaches on the downside as meeting reaction and other forces play out over the next couple of weeks or so, but a $40-$60 range is “a plausible corridor heading into next year.” 

Given the “bruised emotions” following the OPEC meeting, “we can’t ignore the potential for OPEC itself ... to be a contributor to ongoing volatility,” said Lamb. 

On Nymex, petroleum product prices also ended sharply lower, with January gasoline RBF6, +0.58%  down 6.1 cents, or 4.8%, at $1.209 a gallon and January heating oil HOF6, +0.44%  losing 6.3 cents, or 4.7%, to $1.28 a gallon. 

January natural gas NGF16, -0.10%  ended at $2.067 per million British thermal units, down 11.9 cents, or 5.4%. 

文章翻译由兄弟财经提供

本文来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-stuck-below-40-a-barrel-after-opec-decision-2015-12-07?link=MW_popular