Elvis Picardo 2016年1月7日
自从2015年以来对全球经济的破坏性影响越来越多，货币已经变成了“摇尾巴狗”。在这方面2015年有两个关键，即美元对所有主要货币升值和2015年夏天人民币突然贬值导致全球股市快速回调。由于人民币的再次贬值，全球市场经历了多年以来最恶劣的新年第一周，预计2016年的货币危机将会继续，重点在下面四种货币。
人民币
美元已经获得了外汇市场的统治地位，但是近几个月人民币引起了全球市场的担忧。人民币不是汇率由市场力量决定的浮动货币，而其对包括美元在内的一系列主要汇率由中国央行使用一个管制浮动系统决定。在到2014年的10年期间中国已经允许人民币的逐渐升值，以满足美国政策制定者为了抑制对中国激增的贸易逆差而进行性的人民币升值的强力要求。然而，在2014年1月达到对美元价值最高之后，人民币随着美元强势而逐渐贬值。
为什么市场对2015年8月11日人民币对美元1.8%和在2016年的第一周中8天（包括1月7日0.5%的贬值）贬值1.4%使人民币达到五年来的最低点如此慌乱呢？原因有许多。首先，中国使人民币贬值表明经济其实弱于官方给出的数据。其次，人民币贬值使中国出口商品更加便宜从而增加全球通货紧缩力量。最后，可能会引起一系列货币的竞争性贬值以便和人民币竞争。所有这些因素都对全球经济和其增长前景有负面影响。总体而言，现在以6.65交易的人民币兑美元将在2016占中心位置。
加元
加元给大家最深的印象是在2015年兑美元贬值16%，在16中主要货币中表现为第三糟糕，而在三年中贬值为创记录的28%。2015年的货币剧烈贬值是一系列疲软因素的结果，其中包括加拿大上半年的经济衰退、全球经济增长放缓、加拿大央行的两次利率下调、大宗商品价格下降和石油价格暴跌30%。
这些因素对加元施加的阻力在2016年很容易增加。加拿大经济被预计将受益于货币和财政刺激以及货币疲软，世界其他地方的强劲（如加拿大最大的贸易伙伴美国、印度）和另外的温和复苏（欧洲、日本）将会抵消中国经济增长放缓的影响。非能源出口也在增加。11月，受摩托车和零件销售增长5.9%达到79亿美元的影响，出口在持续下降3个月之后增长0.4%达到433亿加元，汽车出口也在过去一年增加24%。
加拿大央行在2016年下调利率的几率为历史最低的0.25%，这个数据正在增加，因为这个几率将在加拿大和全球经济不景气时给加元带来压力。然而货币交易者对加元在2016年回升持乐观态度。彭博社的调查显示2016年末加元即期汇率平均预测为1.33（75美分），而现在的汇率为1.4050（约71美分）。
欧元
希腊政治危机再一次加剧了对欧元区未来的担忧，欧元在2015年上半年遭受了投机性攻击。该货币引起人们的关注是因为和人民币一样意想不到的贬值，到2015年对美元贬值10.2%。由于对欧洲央行主席扩大扩大货币刺激措施的预期，欧元12月在1.05美元左右徘徊，但是因为欧洲央行的措施没有预期的剧烈，其随后反弹。虽然一些外汇交易者认为欧元将在2016年跌到与美元平价，但是彭博社的调查参与者认为只会有小幅贬值，从现在1.08跌到1.06.
巴西雷亚尔
巴西雷亚尔是2015年表现最糟糕的货币，兑美元下跌33%，使其自2010年以来兑美元下跌58%。雷亚尔在9月标准普尔把巴西的信用评级列入垃圾之后达到4.25雷亚尔兑1美元的历史最低点。企业和消费者信心继续下跌，巴西的股指在1月的的全球抛售风潮中几乎到达七年最低点，雷亚尔在2016可能很难恢复。事实上，如果2016年大宗商品和能源价格继续下跌，雷亚尔可能跌入新低。
总结
这四种货币在2016年将会受到广泛关注，尤其是人民币。
Four Currencies Under the Spotlight in 2016
By Elvis Picardo, CFA | Updated January 27, 2016
Currencies have become the “tail that wags the dog,” in terms of the increasingly disruptive impact they have had on the global economy since 2015. Two key developments in 2015 stand out in this regard—the dollar's relentless advance against every major currency, and in particular its surge against currencies of commodity exporters; and the yuan's shock devaluation over the summer that led to a short and sharp correction in global equities. With global markets having their worst start in years after China again devalued the yuan in the first week of January, expect currency turmoil to continue in 2016, with the spotlight on these four currencies.
Chinese Yuan
The dollar may be reigning supreme in forex markets, but in recent months it's the Chinese yuan that's been the focus of global angst. The yuan is not a floating currency whose exchange rate is determined by market forces; rather, China's central bank—the People's Bank of China (PBOC)—uses a "managed float" system to determine its rate against a basket of managed currencies including the U.S. dollar. China had been allowing the yuan to appreciate gradually for a 10-year period that ended in 2014, partly in response to strident calls from U.S. lawmakers for yuan revaluation in order to curb the nation's soaring trade deficit with China. However, since reaching its strongest ever level of just above six to the dollar in January 2014, the yuan has been allowed to creep lower as the dollar runs rampant.
So why were markets so rattled by the yuan's record 1.8% devaluation on August 11, 2015, and an eight-day depreciation of 1.4% in the first week of January 2016 (including a 0.5% devaluation on January 7) that took the currency to its lowest in almost five years? For a number of reasons. Firstly, the willingness of China to let the yuan trade lower indicates that the economy may be even weaker than the official figures suggest. Secondly, a lower yuan would result in cheaper exports from China and intensify deflationary forces in the global economy. And finally, it may spur a cycle of competitive devaluations as nations depress their currencies to compete with the yuan. All these factors have negative implications for the global economy and its growth prospects. Overall, expect the yuan, which currently trades at 6.56 to the dollar, to continue occupying center-stage in 2016.
Canadian Dollar
The Canadian dollar—or "loonie" as it is known in the forex world—plummeted 16% versus the greenback in 2015, the third-worst performance of 16 major currencies, capping a three-year slide of a record 28%. The currency's plunge in 2015 was precipitated by the perfect storm of bearish factors: a recession in Canada in the first half of the year, slowing global growth, two interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, lower commodity prices, and finally, a 30% plunge in crude oil prices.
The drag exerted by these factors on the currency could ease up in 2016. The Canadian economy is expected to benefit from the tailwinds of monetary and fiscal stimulus and a weak currency, while pockets of strength in some parts of the world (like the U.S., Canada's largest trading partner; and India) and a modest recovery in others (Europe, Japan) could offset the slowdown in China. Non-energy exports are also picking up. In November, exports rose 0.4% to C$43.3 billion after declines in the three preceding months, led by a 5.9% increase to C$7.9 billion in sales of motor vehicles and parts; automobile shipments have surged 24% over the past year.
Odds of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in 2016 to a record low of 0.25% are rising, which may pressure the loonie if the Canadian and global economies weaken. Currency traders, however, are optimistic about the chances for a recovery in the Canadian dollar in 2016. The average forecast in a Bloomberg survey for the end-2016 C$ spot rate is 1.33 (or just over 75 U.S. cents), compared with the present exchange rate of 1.4050 (about 71 U.S. cents).
Euro
The euro came under speculative attack in the first half of 2015 as a political crisis in Greece once again stirred concerns about the future of the euro area. The currency conceded the global stage to the yuan after the latter's unexpected devaluation in August, and ended 2015 down 10.2% vs. the dollar. In December, it had tumbled to around 1.05 to the U.S. dollar, on expectations for expanded monetary stimulus measures from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, but rebounded after Draghi's measures were less dramatic than expected. While some currency traders think the euro could fall to parity with the greenback in 2016, Bloomberg survey participants forecast only a modest weakening in the currency this year, to 1.06 from its present level of 1.08.
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real was the worst-performing major currency in 2015, plunging 33% against the U.S. dollar, and bringing its decline versus the greenback since 2010 to a staggering 58%. The currency reached a record low of 4.25 against the U.S. dollar in September after Standard & Poor's cut Brazil's credit rating to junk amid a deep recession, political stalemate and a widening corruption probe into state-owned oil company Petrobras. With business and consumer confidence continuing to plummet, and Brazil's equity index near a seven-year low amid a global sell-off in the first week of January, the real may be hard-pressed to recover in 2016. In fact, the currency could trade at new lows if commodity and energy prices continue to tumble in 2016.
The Bottom Line
These four currencies will be under the spotlight in 2016, with the Chinese yuan in particular at center stage.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/012716/four-currencies-under-spotlight-2016.asp