美国股票在2016年面临的三个风险 - 兄弟财经外汇返佣十七年信誉保障

Stephen Vita 2016年1月28日

股票熊市的传统定义是像标准普尔500一样的基准指数从最近的高点上下跌20%。市场技术人员通过市场氛围确定市场内部环境，而现在市场环境不那么健康。

2016年初，从欧洲到远东的股指已经停盘或者进入熊市。美国股票由于一些显而易见的风险在2016年非常脆弱。

美联储决策性错误

每隔几十年，美联储都会出现决策性错误。这个能是利率提升太快的另一个极端。在过去几年中，美国经济复苏要快于世界其他地区。全球环境基本相同，很少出现例外。美国和欧洲现在最大宏观风险是通货紧缩，而不是通货膨胀，美联储担心通胀率将下跌到远远低于目标的2%水平。欧洲、中国和日本都在实行宽松货币政策，而美联储决定实行紧缩政策，虽然幅度很小。

华尔街担心美联储不会让步。1月的第一周，美联储副主席Stanley Fischer表示市场正在接受紧缩的到来，曾评论“我们认为它们（利率）太低”。他预测2016年至少出现四次利率提升。也许这一次不一样，但是美联储很少在开始紧缩政策后立即停止或者逆转。由于底层经济环境距离爆发还很远、股票处于低谷、大宗商品暴跌和垃圾债券，如果美联储保持强硬很可能发生决策性错误，而美国股票将会遭受打击。

企业利润下降和股票价值高估

如果美联储的紧缩政策太强劲，美元会随之强劲，这将对美国跨国企业将弱势货币转化成美元时造成损失。盈利是股票价格的最主要驱动，德国高盛投资公司已经降低了其2016年的盈利预期。该公司认为利润空间已经到达定点。美国劳动力成本正在增加，美国公司普遍缺少定价权和利润增长。这些都是盈利增长的不利因素。

与此同时，一些华尔街分析人士进一步警告投资者应该为企业利润下跌做好准备。根据标普资本智商公司的数据，美国企业2015年第四季度利润下跌5%，出现自2009年以来的首次连续下跌。盈利也将决定市盈率，这一结果将决定股票市场估值。当前标准普尔使用的12个月的盈利做出的市盈率是20，而长期和中期分别是16和15。Oaktree Capital的Howard Marks是一位拥有一流长期记录的投资者，他表示股票估值不是非常高或者非常低，但是他们已经被完全定价了。

巴菲特认为总市场价格和GDP的比率是对市场估值的最好方式。如果按此方法，当前美国股票市场的价值是被高估的。

经济增长放缓或者衰退

经济即将衰退的最明显的一个指标是倒置的国库债券收益曲线，但是不可能现在发生。经济衰退的其他主要指标也没有出现，但是经济增长放缓不一样，尤其是如果美联储在2016年继续紧缩政策。

美国经济第三季度增长率为2.1%，相比第二季度的3.9%有大幅下降。大部分预测都认为2016年美国GDP增长将为2.5%。消费者指数是经济增长的一个重要指标，而消费者信心在11月跌入14个月最低点，2015年末制造业疲软，美国供应管理协会指数跌入六年来最低点。

穆迪公司、世界银行和国际货币基金组织都预测2016年不会出现经济衰退，但是增长缓慢。穆迪公司预测这种缓慢将持续到2017年，所有的经济分析人士都认为如果环境恶化中国的股票崩盘和经济增长放缓将成为全球经济增长的巨大风险。

意想不到的经济冲击成为在2016年经济衰退的唯一途径，这种情况一旦发生，对美国股票的影响的将是灾难性的。观察市场历史，最糟糕的熊市总是和经济衰退一起出现。

股票崩盘警告信号

如果标准普尔500指数在三月初之前不会崩溃，那么牛市周期将会达到7年，是上世纪90年代后最长的一次。牛市可以持续更长时间，但是已经出现了投资者可以为最坏情况做准备的警告信号

3 Risks U.S. Equities Face in 2016

By Stephen Vita | January 28, 2016

The traditional definition of a stock bear market is a 20% decline in a benchmark index such as the S&P 500 from the most recent high. Market technicians take the temperature of the market by examining internal conditions – and right now, the patient is not looking healthy.

Stock indexes from Europe to the Far East are already close to or in bear markets in early 2016. U.S equities look increasingly vulnerable in 2016 based on several clear risks.

Federal Reserve Policy Mistake

Every few decades, the Federal Reserve makes a policy mistake. It could be on the verge of another one if it raises interest rates too aggressively. In the last few years, U.S. economic growth has barely crawled higher compared to other recoveries. The worldwide story is the same, with a few exceptions. Deflation, not inflation, is the greatest macroeconomic risk in the United States and Europe, and the Fed is worried that inflation will fall too far below the target level of 2%. Europe, Japan and China are all easing their monetary policies, yet the Fed has decided to tighten its policy, albeit by a very small amount.

Wall Street is worried that the Fed won't stop there. In the first week of January, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said that the market was underestimating how much tightening was on the way, commenting that "we think that they're too low." He forecasts at least four rate hikes in 2016. Maybe it will be different this time, but the Fed rarely starts a tightening campaign and immediately stops or reverses course. With the underlying condition of the economy far from robust, stocks on their knees, commodities obliterated and junk bonds tanking, the potential for a policy mistake is high if the Fed does not relent, and U.S. equities will suffer.

Falling Corporate Profits and High Stock Valuations

If the Fed gets too tight, the U.S. dollar may get too strong, which is another weight on corporate profits in 2016. U.S. multinational corporations will be hurt as overseas earnings are converted from weaker currencies back into dollars. Earnings are the key driver of stock prices, and Goldman Sachs has already lowered its earnings forecast for 2016. It believes that profit margins have peaked. U.S. labor costs are perking up, companies lack pricing power and revenue growth is flat. These are toxic conditions for earnings growth.

Meanwhile, some Wall Street analysts go even further, warning that investors should prepare for a recession in corporate earnings. According to S&P Capital IQ, U.S. fourth-quarter earnings fell by 5% in 2015, the first back-to-back decline since 2009. Earnings also determine price/earnings (P/E) ratios, and this measurement leads to appraisals of the stock market's valuation. The current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 using trailing 12-month earnings is about 20 compared to a long-term mean of 16 and median of 15. Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, an investor with a stellar long-term record, says stock valuations are not extremely low or extremely high, but they are fully priced.

Warren Buffett maintains that looking at the ratio of total market cap relative to gross domestic product (GDP) is the best way to value the market. On this basis, the U.S. stock market is currently overvalued.

Slowing Economic Growth or Recession

One of the most reliable indications of a looming recession is an inverted Treasury bond yield curve, but that is nowhere close to happening today. Other macro indicators of recession are also far off the radar screen, but slowing growth is not unlikely, especially if the Fed continues on the path of tightening in 2016.

The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the third quarter, retreating from the 3.9% increase in the second quarter. The consensus forecast for the U.S. is 2.5% GDP growth in 2016. Consumer spending is an important metric for economic growth, and consumer confidence fell to a 14-month low in November. Manufacturing activity weakened in late 2015; the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Index fell to its lowest level in six years.

Moody's, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) all peg global growth as non-recessionary in 2016, but lackluster. Moody's sees slow growth through 2017, and every pundit on the planet mentions the crash in Chinese stocks and the big slowdown in its economy as a risk to global growth if conditions worsen.

An unexpected economic shock appears to be the only route to a recession in 2016, but if it does occur, the effect on the U.S. equity market will be devastating. Looking at market history, the deepest bear markets almost always occur in conjunction with recessions.

Stocks Flashing Caution Signals

If the S&P 500 doesn't completely collapse before early March, the bull market will be 7 years old, one of the longest of the last 90 years. It could go on longer, of course, but there are enough caution signals that investors should prepare themselves for the worst.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/012816/3-risks-us-equities-face-2016.asp