2016年应当关注的新兴市场货币 - 兄弟财经外汇返佣十七年信誉保障

Sean Ross 2016年3月3日

世界领先的新兴经济体货币的混乱已经维持了好几年。人民币、卢比、卢布和雷亚尔在2012年到2015年跌幅都超过20%。这也是美元在美联储实施大规模量化宽松政策下还能大幅上涨的原因。

美联储货币宽松政策的另一个结果是2007年到2015间的超低利率。收入投资者远离传统的储蓄工具，例如国债和定期存款，转向股票和高收益债券。

曾经新兴市场债务被认为是一个有吸引力的投资。印度尼西亚、巴西和俄罗斯债券因为名义上的高收益曾广受欢迎，但是这些国家大幅度的通胀使他们的债券无人问津。阿根廷和委内瑞拉的情况更糟，现在已经关闭了债券市场。

货币升值的原因是什么

货币相对价格的国际交易的原因是这个世界理论上通过一个浮动汇率制度运转。如果美元丧失2%的购买力而卢布丧失5%的购买力，那么美元相对卢布来说就是在升值。投资者应该尝试寻找那些相对本国货币丧失购买力更少的新兴市场货币。

货币变得更有价值有两种途径。第一种是减少该货币的流通。如果该货币的国际流通减少，那么就意味着该货币随着供应的减少将会变得更有价值。第二种方式是国内经济的劳动力生产率增加。例如，俄罗斯是一个盛产原油的国家，如果俄罗斯的原油出口商产量大幅增加那么卢布也将相应的变得更加有价值。

强势货币增加收入，帮助债券持有人更容易负担起外国商品。另一方面，货币升值意味着可能在国外市场更难偿还债务或者出售商品。持有这些升值货币或者这些货币计价的资产将会有长期意义。

1.波兰兹罗提

波兰经济和其他欧洲经济一样，带着15年最后季度是过去五年最好季度的势头进入了2016年。该国的劳动力市场稳定并且商业信心正在增加。再加上低通胀率、强劲的国内需求和增加的生产率使我们预测波兰兹罗提将在2016年全年保持增长。

2.韩元

韩国具有亚太地区最具健康基本和最高效率的经济。自从2014年达到顶峰后韩元对美元丧失了大约15%的价值。债务与GDP的低比率使得韩国政府应该发行更多的货币以缓解压力。

3.匈牙利福林

福林现在处于低利率的困扰中，而且存在许多潜在的经济问题。匈牙利福林自2012年中期起在外汇市场表现令人瞩目而且将吸引自俄罗斯和印度退出的投资者。

4.印度尼西亚卢比

印度尼西亚卢比是一种势头货币而且没有厚重的基本面支撑，至少不能和福林、韩元和兹罗提相比。在年底反弹之前它一直处于对美元交易的最低点。该货币应该受到关注，尤其是大宗商品价格反弹时。

5.印度卢比

卢比比其他的新兴市场货币风险更大，因为印度通胀严重而且货币政策不稳定。印度政府在控制价格是通过贬值促进凯恩斯式增长之间左右为难。然而，卢比因为其高利率在2015年适应风险上比其它所有新兴市场货币表现都要好。卢比2016年存款利率为7.5%。

5 Emerging Markets Currencies to Consider in 2016

By Sean Ross | March 03, 2016

The currencies of the world's leading emerging economies have been in a tailspin for years. The Chinese renminbi, Indian rupee, Russian ruble and Brazilian real each declined by more than 20% between 2012 and 2015. This is one of the reasons why the U.S. dollar experienced a resurgence in global markets despite the Federal Reserve's massive quantitative easing programs.

Another result of the Fed's easy money policy was ultra-low interest rates between 2007 and 2015. Income investors looked away from traditional savings vehicles, such as Treasury bonds and certificates of deposit (CDs), in favor of stocks and high-yield bonds.

There was a time when emerging market debt was considered an attractive investment. Bonds in Indonesia, Brazil and Russia were once considered winners thanks to high nominal returns, but the catastrophic inflation in these countries transformed their bonds into big-time losers. The situation was even worse in Argentina, which is now shut out of bond markets, and Venezuela.

What Makes a Currency Appreciate?

Currencies trade in relative prices in international markets because the world theoretically operates through a floating exchange-rate regime. If the U.S. dollar loses 2% of its purchasing power while the Russian ruble loses 5% of its purchasing power, then the dollar is supposed to appreciate, or strengthen, against the ruble. American investors should try to find emerging market currencies that are not going to lose as much purchasing power as the dollar in 2016.

There are two ways a currency becomes more valuable. The first is a reduction in the currency's circulation. If fewer yuan are floating around the international system, that means each remaining yuan becomes that much more valuable as the supply shrinks. The second is an increase in the home economy's labor productivity. For example, Russia is an oil-rich nation, and the ruble should become relatively more valuable if Russian oil exporters become more productive.

Strong currencies raise incomes, help bondholders and make it easier to afford foreign goods. On the other hand, a rising currency means it is probably more difficult to pay off debt or sell in foreign markets. Hold currencies, or assets denominated in currencies, will hold the most value in the long term.

1. Poland: The Zloty

Poland's economy entered 2016 with as much momentum as any other European nation, with the last quarter expected to be the most robust in nearly five years. The country's labor market is strong and business confidence is rising. The combination of low inflation, impressive domestic demand and increasing productivity has led to an expectation that the Polish zloty will rise throughout 2016.

2. South Korea: The Won

South Korea has one of the most fundamentally sound and productive economies in the Asia-Pacific region. The Korean won lost nearly 15% against the U.S. dollar since its peak in early 2014. Low debt-to-GDP figures for the South Korean government should alleviate pressures to print lots of new money.

3. Hungary: The Forint

Hungary currently has low interest rate problems, and there are many underlying economic concerns. The Hungarian forint has performed admirably in forex markets since mid-2012 and could experience inflows from investors running from India and Russia.

4. Indonesia: The Rupiah

The Indonesian rupiah is a momentum play and not backed by serious fundamentals, or at least not compared to the forint, won or zloty. It was trading at record lows against the dollar before rebounding significantly at the end of the year. This is a currency to keep an eye on, especially if commodity prices rebound.

5. India: The Rupee

The rupee is a riskier bet than other emerging market currencies because of India's problems with inflation and uncertain monetary policy. The Indian government is torn between fighting high prices and trying to devalue to promote Keynesian-style growth programs. However, the rupee outperformed virtually every other emerging market currency on a risk-adjusted basis in 2015 due to its high interest rates. The rupee offers a 7.5% deposit rate for 2016.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/030316/5-emerging-markets-currencies-consider-2016.asp