俄罗斯的前景会怎样?

 Adam Brownlee 2016年3月3日

根据俄罗斯联邦统计局的数据，2015年俄罗斯的GDP增长是-3.7%。这是自2009年石油价格下跌、对俄罗斯与格鲁吉亚开战的担忧和美国金融危机的影响以来的最低值。俄罗斯现在经济下跌的根本原因包括石油价格下跌、卢布疲软（今年以来卢布对美元丧失了7%的价值）和美国与欧盟对俄罗斯的制裁。

随着俄罗斯经济在普京的领导下在七年中第二次开始衰退，俄罗斯的经济前景会怎么样呢？人民会怎么反应呢？普京会怎么做呢？

俄罗斯经济的预测计：石油

俄罗斯是世界上最大的石油和天然气出口国，该国2015年12月平均每天出口量为1083万桶。这一出口数量再加上接近30美元的原油价格（2003年以来的最低价格），《纽约时报》判断俄罗斯的政府预算出现400亿美元的缺口并不得不削减10%。多家银行、分析人士和业内高管在《华尔街日报》发布的文章中预测这种情况在短期内不会得到缓解，因为石油供应过剩至少将持续到2017年。

卢布和俄罗斯消费者

根据彭博社的统计，卢布是2015年24种新兴市场货币中表现最差的。在宏观上，通常一个国家的货币贬值对该国是个积极事件，因为商品价格更加便宜将会促进该国的经济增长。但是俄罗斯是一个能源出口国，2013年能源出口占了该国总出口额5070亿美元中的3360亿，为66%。由于石油价格跌到十年以来的最低点，俄罗斯变得出口乏力。

俄罗斯消费者正受到卢布疲软的影响，俄罗斯是一个主要的典型消费品进口国，例如汽车、药品、汽车零部件和电脑在2013年占该过总进口额3240亿美元的15%。随着卢布的贬值，俄罗斯消费者越来越少能买的起用强劲外国货币计价的进口产品并且情况还在恶化，俄罗斯12月的零售销售相比一年前下降15.3%，工资由于通货膨胀的影响购买力下降10%，通货膨胀率为12.9%。

因为克里米亚问题的制裁

美国和欧盟因为2014年俄罗斯军队入侵乌克兰克里米亚对俄罗斯进行制裁，下面是欧盟制裁的主要内容：

欧盟资产冻结并禁止149个个人和37个企业的签证。

禁止克里米亚对欧盟的出口。

阻止俄罗斯主要国有的五家银行、三家能源公司和三个国防公司的新股票和债券的发行融资。

这些措施并不旨在限制俄罗斯经济，因为许多国家与其有复杂的联系并依赖其能源出口，但是他们将作为一个警告防止再次出现类似事件。尽管如此，这些制裁由于普京的反应却影响了俄罗斯经济。

普京将会怎么做？

这使我们想到普京和他将怎么做。俄罗斯总统会对乌克兰实施更加大规模的军事行动吗？或者重新和美国展开冷战以便刺激经济并保持强硬吗？虽然我相信进一步军事上的强硬符合普京的作风，但是这不太可能发生。经济上讲，俄罗斯政府会采用刺激措施包括进行谈判缓解克里米亚形势以减轻制裁。

总结

最后，俄罗斯经济不稳定是因为普京的行为引起的。这些经济影响正在对俄罗斯民众造成困扰并使他们遭受影响。这种情况可能导致2018年大选的政治变革，我认为到时俄罗斯人民会表达自己的意愿。

What Will Become of the Russian Bear? 

By Adam Brownlee | March 03, 2016 

According to the Federal Statistics Service, Russia’s GDP for 2015 was -3.7%. This is the lowest level of growth for the former Soviet Union since 2009 when plummeting oil prices, political fears over a war with Georgia and contagion from the U.S. financial crisis catapulted the country into a recession. The root causes of Russia’s current economic woes include the plunge in oil prices, a weak ruble (the currency has lost more than 7% against the dollar this year) and sanctions imposed on the motherland by the U.S. and the European Union.

As the Russian economy slumps for the second time in seven years under President Vladimir Putin’s leadership, what lies in wait for the Federation's economy, how will its people react and what will Putin do?

Russian Economic Forecasting: Oil

Russia is the world’s largest exporter of oil and gas condensate: the country averaged 10.83 million barrels a day in December, 2015. This urge to export oil combined with a Brent crude oil benchmark of approximately $30 a barrel (its lowest level since 2003), means that the country is now facing an approximate $40 billion shortfall in its Federal budget and will have to cut expenses by 10% according to the New York Times. And no respite is barreling over the near-term horizon as according to several banks, analysts and industry executives stated in a Wall Street Journal article, that the expected oil glut is expected to last until 2017. 

The Ruble and the Russian Consumer

The ruble was ranked as the worst performing currency among 24 emerging-market currencies for 2015 according to Bloomberg. On a macro level, when a country’s currency weakens, it is typically a positive event as exports theoretically increase due to cheaper goods, leading to stronger growth in the country. But Russia is an exporter of energy: in 2013 energy exports for the country represented $336 billion of its total exports of $507 billion or 66% according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity. Given that oil is pegged to a global benchmark which is beneath 10-year-lows, Russian exports are anemic.

What is happening is that Russian consumers are being pinched by the weakened ruble: Russia is a major importer of quintessential consumer goods such as cars, pharmaceuticals, vehicle parts and computers which collectively represented 15% of the country’s total imports of $324 billion in 2013 according to data from The Observatory of Economic Complexity. As the ruble weakens, Russian consumers can afford less and less of the imports manufactured using stronger, foreign currencies and the results are festering up: December retail sales in Russia dropped by 15.3% compared to the same month from a year earlier, wages adjusted for inflation dipped by 10% and rampant inflation stood at 12.9% according to Bloomberg.com. 

Sanctions Over Crimea

The U.S. and the EU imparted the following sanctions on Russia starting in 2014 over its militant “annexation” of Crimea in the Ukraine. Note: this is not a complete list of sanctions but some of the most pertinent ones, all obtained from the European Union Newsroom:

The EU asset freezes and visa bans of some 149 individuals and 37 entities.

A ban on imports going to the EU from Crimea.

The prevention of new bond sales or equity financing of five major, state-owned banks, three Russian energy companies, and three Russian defense companies.

These measures were not designed to cripple the Russian economy as many other nations are intricately linked with the former Soviet Union and depend on its energy exports, but they do serve as a warning shot across the bow to dissuade Russia from a repeat of Crimea. These sanctions nonetheless have stifled the Russian economy as a result of actions directed by Putin.

What Will Putin Do?

This brings us to Putin and what he will do. Will the Russian President invoke a grand act of bullying and take further, militant action against the Ukraine or perhaps restart a nuclear cold war with the U.S. in an attempt to rev up his country’s economy and cling to power? Not likely, although I certainly believe further fits of strong-handedness involving military actions are in the cards when it comes to Putin. Economically, though, the government may attempt stimulus measures which include coming to the table to resolve the Crimea situation to lift sanctions. 

The Bottom Line

Ultimately, the Russian economy is reeling in part because of the actions Putin has taken. These economic impacts are filtering down to the Russian populace, and they are suffering as a result. What this could lead to is a political change via the country's 2018 elections, and I do believe the Russian people will voice their opinion.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030316/what-will-become-russian-bear.asp