人民币的未来走势会怎样？

 Dan Moskowitz  2016年3月18日

中国政府一直警告做空者要下注人民币。但是做空者没有听从意见而且现在他们不是很高兴。虽然他们中的一些人已经发现他们的选择最终将毫无价值，但是其他人并没有减少做空人民币的意图。因为货币市场的但大多数时间出现结果要比预期时间长，所以现在判断哪一方的交易是正确的还为时过早。以下是需要考虑的几个重要观点。

人民币做多者

瑞士投资经理和Notz Stucki & Cie的另类投资主管Hilmi Unver给出以下观点：“中国希望控制人民币，尽其所能的保证没有其他人能决定人民币的走向。你能和一个巨大的经济体和政策制定者抗争吗，答案显然是否定的。

中国的外汇储备自2014年开始已经下降了7900亿美元，但是3.2万亿的储备量依旧是其他国家的三倍。正如银冠资产管理公司的 Patrick Robert Chovanec最近指出的，中国不是一个债务国，因此不会不得不面对外汇危机。根据Chovanec的说法，中国希望人民币对美元贬值，这是人民币加入货币篮子的原因，因为美联储加息会导致美元升值。如果人民币贬值，将会有助于中国经济的发展。这是中国想要保证在货币市场竞争力的技巧，因此中国不会允许人民币贬值太多。为了保证贬值不会贬值太多，中国政府限制资本外流并发布声明以重建外汇市场信心。随着美联储2016年加息前景的减弱人民币也在升值。

下一个观点不属于人民币做多者，但是也不是和做空者持用相同观点。这一观点警告投资者不要过多做空人民币。这一观点应该被考虑是因为它来自过去几年彭博社追踪道德最好的人民币走势预测者荷兰银行的高级策略师Roy Teo。他关于人民币的警告如下：“任何希望人民币大幅度贬值的人最终都会失望。”但是他预计人民币在年底之前会贬值3%。

人民币做空者

中国经济在2月的增长速度是26年来的最低且出口下降25%，一些投资者不能理解人民币为什么会不下跌。上面已经给出了可能的原因，包括美联储加息可能性的降低和中国庞大的外汇储备。这些条件不能动摇所有的人民币做空者。

新月资本两年前对人民币进行了做空。到现在还在持有仓位，因为它认为人民币在未来两年将会贬值超过70%。

潘兴广场资本管理的Bill Ackman在1月向投资者报告他们对人民币的做空已经失败。

Segra资本管理的对冲基金经理Adam Rodman无意削减对人民币的做空，他认为人民币会在未来18个月中贬值。

香港加拿大皇家银行的外汇策略主管Sue Trinh简单的表示人民币对美元的价值被高估了。

总结

到目前位置，人民币做多者的观点是正确的。从1月7日起人民币已经升值了1.6%，但是现在还不能判断未来结果会怎样。

Where Does the Chinese Yuan Go From Here?

By Dan Moskowitz | March 18, 2016

The Chinese government has been warning bears not to bet against its currency. But the bears didn’t listen and they’re not very happy right now. While some of them have seen their options expire worthless, others still have short positions with no intention of paring them. Since most events take longer to play out than expected in currency markets, it’s still too early to tell who is on the correct side of this trade. Below are several important opinions to consider.

Yuan Bulls

Hilmi Unver, a Swiss money manager and head of alternative investments at Notz Stucki & Cie, makes the following point: “China wants to have control over the yuan and will do whatever it can to ensure that no one else decides what direction it goes in. Is it worth fighting against a huge economy and policy maker that can take you out? No.”

China’s currency reserves have declined $790 billion since June 2014, but at $3.2 trillion this is still three times larger than any other country. As Patrick Robert Chovanec of Silvercrest Asset Management recently pointed out, China is not a debtor country and therefore will not have to contend with a currency crisis. According to Chovanec, the Chinese secretly wanted the yuan to depreciate versus the U.S. dollar, which is why it moved to a basket of currencies, assuming that Federal Reserve interest rate hikes would lead to U.S. dollar appreciation. If the yuan depreciated, then it was expected to help the Chinese economy. The trick is that China still wants to remain competitive in the currency market, so it can’t allow the yuan to depreciate too much. In order to ensure depreciation wouldn’t go too far, the Chinese government has limited capital outflows and used announcements to restore confidence in the currency. The yuan has also appreciated because the prospects for numerous Fed rate hikes in 2016 have diminished. This has hurt the U.S. dollar, which has helped the yuan.

The next opinion doesn’t belong to a yuan bull, but someone who is not as bearish as most people. He’s warning others not to be too bearish on the yuan. His opinion should be considered because he has been the best yuan forecaster over the past year as tracked by Bloomberg. His name and role: Roy Teo, senior strategist at ABN Amro Bank. His warning related to the yuan: “Anyone hoping for another major devaluation will be disappointed.” However, Teo expects the yuan to slide 3% by the end of the year. 

Yuan Bears

With the Chinese economy growing at its slowest past in 26 years and exports plunging 25% in February, some investors can’t figure out why the yuan is holding up. Those potential reasons were given above, including a Federal Reserve that’s less hawkish than expected and China’s large reserves. These conditions don’t sway all yuan bears.

Crescent Capital made a bearish bet on the yuan two years ago. It’s holding on though, as it believes the yuan could decline by as much as 70% over the next two years.

Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management reported to investors in January that its bearish yuan bets had failed. 

Adam Rodman, hedge fund manager at Segra Capital Management, has no intention of paring down his short yuan bet as he expects the currency to depreciate over the next 18 months.

Sue Trinh, head of foreign exchange strategy at Royal Bank of Canada (RY) in Hong Kong, simply stated that the yuan is overvalued versus the U.S. Dollar.

The Bottom Line

The yuan bulls have been correct so far. The yuan has appreciated 1.6% since January 7, but there is no telling how it will play out.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031816/where-does-chinese-yuan-go-here.asp