印度政府再度抑制黄金进口

孟买原棉花交易所的一个八楼的小房间，正是珠宝消亡的地方。黄金核心地区的主要黄金测定标记实验室可能会意识到这一点，这里是将精致的手镯、耳环熔炼成金条的地方。印度政府试图推动这种方法来降低印度的黄金进口量。融掉的珠宝将转换成债券，几年后政府会支付等额的黄金，年化利率为2.5%。

黄金是印度国库的心腹大患。印度每年从中国进口1000吨黄金，然后藏在自己的袜子里、保险箱里或是印度教寺院里，只有一小部分会熔炼成手镯。比黄金贸易逆差还要大的产品就只有石油了。经济学家 Ajit Ranade 指出，印度在进口黄金上的花销要高于外国机构对印度股票、债券的投资。

虽然在印度传统文化中，人们会将黄金作为新娘的陪嫁或是寺庙的供奉，但近年来的黄金需求却开始急速增加。印度人在1982年消费了65吨黄金。随着通货膨胀的加剧和卢布的不断贬值，节俭的人更愿意把辛苦攒下的钱换成黄金。换句话说，从卢布的角度来讲，黄金是极佳的投资产品。

让印度人抛弃婚礼和宗教的习俗完全是天方夜谭。但在黄金投资方面则比较容易下手，尤其是在银行信誉较低的农村。印度政府希望通过债券计划收回50吨黄金，这与2万吨的储备量相比简直微不足道。

印度总理的女儿英迪拉·甘地在1962年捐献了金饰来解决同中国的冲突问题，从这以后，政府的黄金计划就没有成功过。虽然用黄金兑换的纸质债券和黄金实物具有同样的效用，但是这对黄金收藏家来说毫无吸引力。印度统计协会的经济学家 Gurbachan Singh 指出，熟悉文书、银行工作的印度人持有的黄金很少。出于同样的原因，无论政府施加多大的压力，大多数印度寺院都牢牢把持着信徒供奉的黄金，坚决不肯兑换成债券。

印度政府还想了其他的办法来降低黄金的吸引力。政府近来增加了些许的消费税，便使得珠宝的销量停滞了一月之久。政府增加了黄金的进口关税，并要求商人们指出黄金购买量超过20万卢比（合3000美元）的买家，这让黄金商人们愤怒不已。除此之外，央行还禁止了贷款购买黄金。

种种迹象表明，黄金的魅力将渐渐消退。通胀率大幅下跌，降低了黄金的对冲作用。政府首次为上亿群众提供银行账户，为他们提供新的储蓄方式。年轻人佩戴金饰的热情也远低于他们的父辈。

如果政府想加速这一转变，就要改变方针。各种法律条款将大部分银行存款转移至低收益的政府债券及农业债券。这意味着印度人民的储蓄利息微乎其微，反而增加了黄金的相对吸引力。这样的金融压制对政府资金起不到帮助作用。这意味着印度人压制的黄金抵得上印度四个月的经济产出。这些资金本可用于生产性投资提供。

India’s government tries to curb imports of gold—again

A SMALL room on the eighth floor of Mumbai’s former cotton exchange is where jewellery goes to die. At the Master Bullion Assaying & Hallmarking Lab in the heart of the gold district, superheated crucibles melt elaborate bangles and earrings into bars a central banker might recognise. This alchemy is being promoted by the government under a new “monetisation” scheme designed to reduce India’s imports of gold: the melted bling can be traded for a bond which will return the same amount of gold several years down the line, with interest of up to 2.5% in the interim.
Gold is the bane of India’s exchequer. Indians vie with Chinese as the world’s biggest consumers, buying just under 1,000 tonnes a year and stashing it in anklets, safe-deposit boxes and Hindu temples. As all but a few bangles’ worth is imported, only oil accounts for a bigger share of India’s trade deficit. To put it another way, the imports cost India more dollars every year than it attracts from foreign institutions investing in stocks and bonds, points out Ajit Ranade, an economist.

Although Indians have traditionally used gold as part of a bride’s dowry and as an offering at temples, demand has ballooned in recent years. In 1982 they consumed just 65 tonnes of the stuff. Decades of inflation and a much-debased rupee have pushed savers towards what is, in effect, a convenient way to insulate their nest-egg from the poor decisions of India’s policymakers. In rupee terms, in other words, gold has been a stellar investment.
Getting Indians to forgo gold for weddings and religious offerings is probably a non-starter. Easier to target the portion that is bought as an investment, especially in rural areas where banks are scarce and mistrusted. The government hopes it will gather 50 tonnes of gold through its bond scheme—a modest target given the country’s 20,000-tonne pile. Yet four months in only three tonnes have been gathered.

That is hardly a surprise: government schemes to collect gold have disappointed since at least 1962, when Indira Gandhi, then the prime minister’s daughter, handed over her own finery to finance a border skirmish with China. Though gold and a government bond backed by gold are much the same on paper, they do not hold the same appeal for those who favour gold as a store of value. Indians who are comfortable with paperwork and banks simply aren’t big holders of gold, points out Gurbachan Singh, an economist at the Indian Statistical Institute. By the same token, most Hindu temples, many of which have hoards of gold donated by the pious, have steered clear of the scheme, despite pressure from the government.

Policymakers have other ways of making gold less appealing. A modest excise tax in the recently unveiled budget has kept jewellers across the country on strike for a month. Gold sellers were already furious at import duties and rules forcing them to identify customers buying more than 200,000 rupees’ ($3,000) worth. In addition, the central bank is discouraging lending to buy gold.

Several trends suggest gold may eventually lose its lustre. Inflation has fallen dramatically, reducing its value as a hedge. A government scheme is giving hundreds of millions of people bank accounts for the first time, providing them with an alternative way to save. Young people are said to be less interested in wearing gold jewellery than their parents.

If the government really wanted to accelerate this shift, it could change its own ways. Various laws steer a big share of bank deposits into low-yielding government debt and agricultural loans. That, in turn, means that Indians earn little interest on their savings, enhancing gold’s relative appeal. Such financial repression helps the government fund itself cheaply. But it means that Indians are sitting on gold equivalent in value to four months of economic output. That could be financing productive investments instead.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21695558-indias-government-tries-curb-imports-goldagain-tarnished-appeal