德意志银行表示USD/JPY存在巨大的下行风险

FXstreet.com 2016年3月24日

德意志银行策略师Taisuke Tanaka指出USD/JPY在112到113日元之间徘徊，但是存在巨大下跌风险。

主要引证

“日本的公共养老金和一些其他投资者正在美元疲软时买入美元，但是我们发现没有发现有足够的购买力能提高USD/JPY汇率。

与此同时，由于日本出口商和机构投资者的套期保值美元在114-117日元之间存在巨大的抛售压力。即使美国经济数据良好大宗商品和股票价格回升的情况下，USD/JPY依然存在这个阻力线。

即使利好消息出现，USD/JPY也通常在这个上限上开始下跌，而不利消息出现则立即开始下跌。上周美国联邦公开市场委员会成员将加息预测从四次变成两次之后汇率开始大幅度下降，虽然即使是仅仅一次加息市场也会受到巨大影响。

对日本来说好消息是市场情绪限制了美元的大规模抛售，使USD/JPY的最低价格稳稳维持在110-112之间。实际上，基本面没有提供任何过分悲观的理由。尽管如此，我们很难乐观起来并且不希望这种股票和大宗商品上涨的趋势得到维持，即使是美国指标得到改善。

一旦市场风险恢复，我们将在未来三个月对USD/JPY的下行风险保持警惕。在7月的参议院选举之前政府可能不会允许下跌到100日元以下，会通过货币干预使其维持在105到110之间。

与此同时，这将避免5月在日本举办的G20峰会中日元因为过度疲软受到指责。如果市场怀疑这种情况会限制干预措施的规模和持续性，投机者和日本套期保值者将会加大在110日元左右美元的抛售。”

USD/JPY: Downside risk still prevails – Deutsche Bank

By FXstreet.com | March 24, 2016

Taisuke Tanaka, Strategist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the USD/JPY is hovering at around ¥112-113, but downside risk remains prevalent.

Key Quotes

“Japanese public pensions and some investors should continue to buy dollars on weakness, but we do not envision strong enough purchasing to boost the USD/JPY rate.

At the same time, the dollar faces strong selling pressure at ¥114-117 due to hedging by Japanese exporters and institutional investors. The USD/JPY has held at this resistance line even with the easing in risk-off sentiment thanks to solid US economic data and the rebound in equity and commodity markets.

The USD/JPY tends to fall in disappointment at this upper limit even when positive news appears, while falling directly with any bad news. The rate dropped sharply last week after FOMC members scaled back their forecast this year from four rate hikes to two, even though the markets had already discounted just a single hike.

The good news for Japan is that any rush to sell the USD has been limited due to the retreat in risk-off sentiment, and the bottom has held firm at ¥110-112. Indeed, the fundamentals do not offer any reason for excess pessimism. Still, we can hardly be optimistic and do not expect the upswing in equities and commodities to be sustained even with the improvement in US indicators.

We remain vigilant against downside risk in the USD/JPY over the next three months once the autonomous comeback in risk markets ends. The government is unlikely to allow a drop below ¥100 just before the Upper House election in July and may seek to halt any decline to ¥105-110 through currency intervention.

At the same time, it will want to avoid criticism of weak yen guidance at the G20 Summit in May, which Japan will be hosting. If the markets suspect that these circumstances will limit the scale and sustainability of any intervention action, speculators and Japanese hedgers could increase their dollar selling at around ¥110.”

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/fxstreet/forex/news/usdjpy-downside-risk-still-prevails-deutsche-bank.aspx