熊市即将出现吗？

 Dan Moskowitz  2016年4月6日

看跌主义者多年来一直认为将出现下跌，但是这种情况并没有出现。你可以把这当成他们是错误的例证。他们坚持他们的观点是因为他们在基本面上的发现，但是事实是基本面并没有美联储的作用大。如果利率继续低下，至少股市将泰然自若。如果利率升高，那么股市将面临压力。这非常简单。长时间维持低利率的积累的债务风险必须得到解决。我们等待的时间越长，情况就会变得越糟糕并且经济增长就会越缓慢，因为这将需要更多的资金进行去债务化。

另一种看法是那些公司、大宗商品、货币和国家的强烈基本面往往最终都是正确的。没有人能判断我们是否面临下一个熊市。可以从基本面和技术面做深入的讨论。

基本面讨论

世界上最大的四个经济体正在经历人口老龄化、消费者消费下降和通胀紧缩。这些已经被认为是对市场最大的威胁，让我们来看一下下一个潜在因素，那就是美国大选。现有的候选人有一些共同的主题，那就是增加金融监管、减少自由贸易和增加税收。这些主题并不适合所有的候选人，而起为了政治倾向并没有提及名字。要点是无论谁胜出，股市都会面临压力或者大选临近时股市压力就会出现。

另一个因素是就业市场。虽然看起来5%的失业率并不需要担忧，但是这个数据是U-3版本。在包含失业、为充分就业和失去信心的U-6版本中这个比例是9.8%。而劳动力参与率是63%，这是自20世纪70年代以来的最低值。

最低小时工资涨到15美元的趋势正在形成，但是这很可能适得其反。公司可能不能出现强劲的增长，因为需要低增长促进股价的上涨。促进低增长的一种方式是削减成本，但是这将出现负面影响。成本将会增加，最终将影响收入。

最重要的基本面来自美联储。美联储主席耶伦想要加息，但是她知道这很危险，因为经济比大多数人设想的脆弱。与此同时，她现在面对着许多强硬派的压力，如果她现在进行加息，将会把压力放到股票市场上并会引发熊市。如果发生这种情况，她可能会再次调低利率。这也是为什么可能不会出现熊市的原因，但是由于基本面原因未来还是可能出现加息。

技术讨论

标准普尔500指数现在仍然处于52周高点4%左右的下方，且接近十个月没有出现新高。需要指出的是如果标准普尔500指数210天不出现新高，那么下一年的平均收益将会是-3.01%。

根据MKM Partners首席市场技术员Jonathan Krinsky的说法，在2060到2100之间将会出现许多阻力，而1970将成为恐慌水平。另一方面，他也相信新高将会引发巨大的上升潜力。简单来说就是，如果5月不出现新高，那么他认为熊市将会出现。

总结

无论你从基本面还是技术面观察当前形势，都有出现熊市的危险。但是别忘了美联储到目前为止仍然是最具影响力的因素。

Is There a Bear Market Around the Corner?

By Dan Moskowitz | Updated April 06, 2016

The bears have been calling for a sustainable market drop for years, and it hasn’t happened. You could make a case that they’re wrong. The bears are sticking to their argument because of what they see fundamentally, but the truth is that fundamentals are not as important as the Federal Reserve. If interest rates remain low, stocks should, at least, hold their own. If interest rates move higher, stocks will be under pressure. It’s that simple. The risk of keeping interest rates low for too long is accumulated debts, which must eventually be paid off. The longer we wait, the worse the situation gets and the more growth will slow because additional capital will need to be allocated to deleveraging as opposed to growth.

The other way to look at it is that those who make strong fundamental cases against a company, commodity, currency or economy are often eventually correct. Nobody can tell if a bear market is around the next corner. But a bear market is certainly around one corner in the not-so-distant future. Sound arguments can be made from both fundamental and technical perspectives. 

The Fundamental Argument

The world’s four largest economies are experiencing aging populations, slowing consumer spending and deflation. Since that’s already been deemed the biggest threat to markets let’s move on to another potential factor, which is the U.S. election. Of the remaining candidates, there are several common themes: increased financial regulation, reduced free trade and higher taxes. These themes don’t apply to all candidates and names aren’t being mentioned to avoid a political slant. The point is that regardless of who wins, there will be pressure on stocks or there could be pressure on stocks as the election approaches.

Another factor is the job market. This shouldn’t seem like a concern with the unemployment rate at 5%, but that’s the U-3 version. The U-6, which includes the unemployed, underemployed and discouraged, is 9.8%. And the labor force participation rate stands at 63%, which is the lowest reading since the 1970s. 

The minimum hourly pay raise to $15 is gaining momentum, but there is a good chance it will backfire. Companies aren’t delivering strong top-line growth, instead relying on bottom-line performance in order to drive stock prices higher. One way to drive the bottom line is to cut costs, and this will have the opposite impact. Costs will increase, which will negatively impact earnings.

Most important from a fundamental standpoint is the Federal Reserve. Fed Chief Janet Yellen wants to hike, but she knows it’s dangerous because the global economy is much weaker than most people think. At the same time there is a lot of hawkish pressure on her right now and if she hikes the interest rate, it could put pressure on stocks and lead to a bear market. Then again, if this occurred, she could simply move rates back down. This is why a bear market might not be around the next corner, but it’s definitely around a not-so-distant corner due to economic fundamentals. 

The Technical Argument

The S&P 500 is still approximately 4% off its 52-week high and hasn’t made a new high for ten months. It should also be pointed out that when the S&P 500 goes 210 days without a new high, the average return over the next year is -3.01%.

According to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners, there would be a lot of resistance at 2,060-2,100 and 1,970 would be the panic level. On the other hand, he also believes that another move to new highs could lead to significant upside potential. If you want the simple version, if there is no new high made in May, he sees a bear market.

The Bottom Line

Whether you look at this situation fundamentally or technically, a bear market is a realistic risk. That said, don’t forget that the Federal Reserve is still by far the most powerful factor. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/040516/there-bear-market-around-corner.asp