巴西雷亚尔的个案研究

 Sean Ross  2016年4月5日

巴西是一个令投资者和公共政策投资者着迷的国家。即使有的话也很少有新兴市场经济体在2011年到2016年之间经历如此多的政治和货币动荡。这是一个增长、通胀、衰退、腐败总统丑闻和货币市场波动的故事。

2011年国际对雷亚尔价值高估的担忧

在2011年中期，专家的共识是巴西雷亚尔是世界上价值最高估的货币。2011年4月的联合国贸易和发展会议（UNCTAD）指出巴西雷亚尔的交易超过其长期最佳价值的80%。

在其发布的声明中，UNCTAD指出巴西雷亚尔的价值自20世纪90年代的高通胀结束以来一直长期被高估，这一趋势在2008年金融危机之后升级。潜在的一个原因是因为以雷亚尔定价的巴西资产和国内资产在外汇市场需求的增加。雷亚尔兑美元在2011年达到1.5：1的高点。

正如UNCTAD指出的，货币价格高估造成消费和投资决定不协调。它还对巴西的财政政策造成压力，因为货币价值高估使政府债务融资更加昂贵。

巴西带着困扰进入2012年。巴西家庭的生活成本在增加，迫使该国提高利率以适应更高的通货膨胀。然而，几乎所有的其他主要货币都在贬值以适应宽松货币政策。这使得巴西雷亚尔在国内市场贬值而在所有国际市场升值。

2012年到2014年有针对性的贬值

2012年到2014年之间巴西货币当局进行了强有力的货币贬值。财政部长Guido Mantega多年来一直呼吁更高的通货膨胀，但是当时赞成该政策的寥寥无几。

目标利率在2011年8月首次下跌，但是巴西雷亚尔首次贬值出现在2012年中期。央行设定了到2015年之前2.5雷亚尔兑1美元的政策目标，但是这一目标可能太过激进。在仅仅11个月中，利率下降12.5%达到7.32%的历史最低点。2012年10月，雷亚尔兑美元已经达到了2：1左右。

2013年国际股票投资者将其注意力从新兴市场转移，主要是因为美国股票市场增长强劲。尽管2014年预期的目标是维持价格稳定，但是雷亚尔持续下跌。雷亚尔兑美元的价值在2014年第三季度下跌9.5%，在所有新兴市场货币中表现第二差，仅仅好于卢布。

2015年的经济动荡

2014年末和2015年初雷亚尔抛售的一部分原因是国际投资者广泛认为总统Dilma Rousseff是反市场的。事实上，许多重大的决策都是Rousseff战胜竞争对手Marina Silva后发生的。

雷亚尔在2015年出现大幅下跌。根据官方测量，达到11%的通胀和认为Rousseff领导政府失败的影响对经济增长造成巨大压力。在12月末，巴西不顾财政巨大压力提高了公务员的最低工资。投资者的回应是在国际市场大量抛售雷亚尔。雷亚尔在年末时对美元超过4：1，是2002年来的最高水平。

2016年总统 Lula被逮捕，雷亚尔升值

2016年3月4日，巴西爆发政治丑闻，前总统Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva因腐败和洗钱被逮捕。虽然消息非常引人注目但是却不让人意外，Lula长期以来一直涉嫌在对巴西石油巨头Petrobras调查中收取数十亿美元的贿赂和回扣。

在消息发布后巴西雷亚尔开始上涨，大概是因为对巴西政治动荡结束、经济增长的信心。巴西的政客是否有扭转乾坤的信心还有待观察。总体看来，巴西雷亚尔是一个很好的研究经济和政治互相影响的案例。

The Brazilian Real: A Case Study (PBR)

By Sean Ross | Updated April 05, 2016

Brazil is a fascinating and informative country for investors and public policy analysts. Few, if any, of the world's emerging market economies demonstrated as much political or monetary turmoil in the five years between 2011 and 2016. It's a tale of growth, inflation, recession, corruption, presidential scandals and, ultimately, huge swings in currency markets.

2011: International Concern About an Overvalued Real

During mid-2011, the expert consensus was that the Brazilian real (BRL) ranked among the most overvalued currencies in the world. A United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) concluded in April 2011 that Brazil's currency was trading 80% higher than its long-term "optimal" level (the term "optimal" here referred to an original market value-based concept introduced by UNCTAD, whereby an efficiently-priced currency should be able to reallocate an economy's resources toward sectors with the highest productivity).

In its published opinion, the UNCTAD argued Brazil's real had been chronically overvalued ever since the end of Brazil's high inflationary period in the 1990s, though the trend escalated following the 2008 international financial crisis. One potential cause was an increased foreign demand for Brazilian assets and domestic products which, because they are priced in real, bid up the cost for Brazil's currency in forex markets. The real hit a high point of R$1.50 per U.S. dollar (USD) in 2011.

Overvaluation matters because, as the UNCTAD pointed out, a mispriced currency creates dis-coordination between spending and investing decisions. It also puts a squeeze on Brazilian fiscal policy, since government debt financing is more expensive in a state of currency overvaluation.

Brazil entered 2012 in a troubling situation. The cost of living for Brazilian families was increasing, forcing the country to adopt high interest rates to put clamps on domestic inflation. However, almost every other major global currency was devaluing in the face of easy monetary policy. The effect was a BRL losing value at home and gaining value in all international markets.

2012-2014: Targeted Devaluation

The period between 2012 and 2014 saw strong devaluation efforts by Brazilian monetary authorities. Finance Minister Guido Mantega had been calling for more inflation for years, but pro-inflation policies were politically unpopular.

Targeted interest rates first started to fall in August 2011, but the BRL really began losing steam in the middle of 2012. The central bank set a policy goal of R$2.50 per USD by 2015, but the pump priming may have been too aggressive. Interest rates fell from 12.5% to a then-record low 7.32% in just 11 months. By October 2012, the real was already around R$2.00 per USD.

International equity investors turned their attention from emerging markets in 2013, largely due to strong stock market growth in the United States. Despite expectations of price stability in 2014, the real showed continued weakness. BRL prices declined against the dollar by 9.5% in the third quarter of 2014, the second-worst performance among emerging markets behind the Russian ruble.

2015: Economic Turmoil

Part of the BRL selloff in late 2014 and early 2015 was in response to strong polling for President Dilma Rousseff. Rousseff was widely considered anti-market by international investors. In fact, many significant runoffs were timed directly after Rousseff polled well against then-rival Marina Silva.

The real was in free fall by the end of 2015. Rampant inflation, which reached approximately 11% according to official measurements, had combined with a perceived failure by the Rousseff-led government to pursue pro-growth policies. In late December, Brazil raised the minimum wage for civil servants despite huge fiscal challenges. Investors responded by dumping real in currency markets, unconvinced the political class was willing to tackle economic problems with any seriousness. The BRL would end the year above R$4.00 per USD, the highest since 2002.

2016: President Lula Detained; Real Soars

On March 4, 2016, Brazil was rocked by political scandal when federal police detained former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ("Lula") for corruption and money laundering. Though striking in its consequence, the news wasn't a complete surprise; President Lula had long been linked to an investigation involving Brazil's semi-public oil powerhouse Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) and billions of dollars in bribes and kickbacks.

The Brazilian real surged upon news of the arrest, presumably out of hope that Brazil's political turmoil would cease to hinder pro-growth policy and restore faith in the country. It remains to be seen if Brazil's politicians have the fortitude to turn things around. If nothing else, the Brazilian real is a fine case study in the intersection of economics and politics.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/040516/brazilian-real-case-study-pbr.asp