Blackrock Author 2016年4月6日
年初时对全球经济衰退的担忧重创了市场。然而现在这种担忧已经减弱。
那么这个季度等待我们的是什么呢？我和我的同事在新的BlackRock投资机构出版物中发布了《2016年第二季度全球投资展望》。我们的展望围绕着三个关键主题，这三个主题很可能在第二季度影响金融市场。
主题1：未来低回报
我们处在一个低回报的环境。长时间的低利率使投资者为了获得收益愿意承担更大的风险，推高资产价格。持续的量化宽松和负利率政策只会继续这一趋势。
现在的市场估值越高意味着在未来的回报越低。例如，BlackRock为验证未来回报进行的多资产“资本市场假想”现在处于危机后的低点。但是要牢记我们处在一个低回报，但是不是无回报的环境。这使投资者陷入两难境地，在接受低回报或者通过增加股票、信贷和利率风险中选择。
主题2：货币政策分歧正在放缓
自2014年以来，货币政策分歧受到市场的广泛关注，导致美元的持续上涨。对美联储加息与欧洲央行和日本央行进一步量化宽松的预期引发了两年期国债收益的不同。
然而，利率日益扩大的分歧还没有发生。我们相信未来的分歧将会更加微妙。欧元区和日本突破负利率的限制，欧洲和日本的进一步量化宽松和美国的经济增长与利率上升将引发进一步的分歧。
市场暗示：美联储紧缩的速率放缓使美元停止上涨，这对风险资产尤其是新兴市场来说是个好兆头。一旦美联储再次开始加息，美元只会恢复其上涨姿态。
主题3：波动和分散
当今的市场以模仿交易为特点。流行的交易是增持美元和减持新兴市场和大宗商品资产。在这种情况下我们发现两个问题。首先，许多交易都是高度相关的。这就意味着投资组合可能具有比表现出来的更高的风险。其次，货币政策正常化很可能增加波动。我们的调查表明央行开始增加利率和减少负债的时候，波动和分散往往在货币政策周期后期增加。
这增加了未来市场领导地位急剧反转和转换的风险。我们已经开始可以看到赢家和输家之间的差距的增大。根据我们的分析，衡量个别股票收益分化的全球股市横向分散最近达到了四年最高水平。其他资产类别也呈现出类似的趋势。
我们发现随着美联储加息和市场更加关注尾部潜伏的风险，波动和分散开始正常化。这些风险中包括人民币贬值和英国退出欧盟，以及新兴市场在经济增长预期中反弹或者温和上涨的风险。
第三个主题表明投资者不能再依赖潮水上涨才起航所有船只。在分散重新出现的资本市场中股票选择非常重要。
3 Themes That Will Shape Markets This Quarter
By Blackrock Author | April 06, 2016
Fears of a global recession hit markets hard at the start of the year. Yet the anxiety has waned.
What’s in store for the quarter ahead? My colleagues and I provide a roadmap in our new BlackRock Investment Institute publication “Global Investment Outlook: Q2 2016.” Our outlook centers around three key themes likely to shape financial markets in the second quarter.
Theme 1: Low returns ahead
We are living in a low-return world. A long period of low rates has encouraged investors to assume greater risk in the stretch for yield, inflating asset prices. Ongoing quantitative easing (QE) and negative interest rate policies are only continuing this trend.
Higher valuations today typically mean lower returns in the future. For example, BlackRock’s five-year “Capital Market Assumptions” for future returns of various asset classes are near post-crisis lows. But it’s important to remember we are in a low-return, but not no-return, environment. This poses a dilemma for investors: Accept lower returns or dial up risk by taking more equity, credit and interest rate exposure.
Theme 2: Monetary policy divergence is slowing
Monetary policy divergence has been a clear market theme since 2014, sparking a persistent appreciation in the U.S. dollar. Expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) liftoff contrasted with further easing measures from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, and this has been reflected in the diverging path of two-year bond yields.
However, the era of ever-widening policy divergence through interest rates is likely behind us. We believe future divergence will be more subtle. The eurozone and Japan are reaching the limits of negative rates, with further divergence likely to be driven by incremental QE in Europe and Japan as well the trajectories of U.S. growth and rate increases.
The market implications: A slower expected pace of Fed tightening is pausing the dollar’s rise, and this bodes well for risk assets and emerging markets in particular. The dollar will likely only resume its uptrend once markets start pricing in faster Fed rate increases.
Theme 3: Volatility and dispersion
Markets today are characterized by a lot of “me-too” trades. Popular trades have included overweighting the U.S. dollar and underweighting emerging market and commodity assets. We see two problems with this picture. First, many of these trades are highly correlated. This means portfolios may be riskier than they appear. Second, monetary policy normalization is likely to increase volatility. Volatility and dispersion tend to rise late in monetary policy cycles when central banks start raising rates and shrinking their balance sheets, our research suggests.
This raises the risk of rapid momentum reversals and shifts in market leadership going forward. We are already starting to see the gap between winners and losers widen again. Cross-sectional dispersion in global equities — a measure of the variation in returns across individual securities — recently reached its highest level in four years, according to our analysis. Other asset classes are displaying similar trends.
We see volatility and dispersion rising to normalized levels as the Fed lifts rates and markets pay more attention to lurking tail risks. These risks include the downside ones of a Chinese yuan devaluation and a U.K. exit from the European Union, as well as the upside risks of an emerging market rebound or a moderate rise in inflation expectations on improving growth prospects.
The investing takeaway of this third theme: Investors can no longer rely on a rising tide lifting all boats. Security selection is crucial as dispersion re-emerges in asset markets.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/markets/040616/3-themes-will-shape-markets-quarter.asp