OPEC下调石油需求预估 油价进一步下跌

周四原油价格再度下降，使得供应过剩的情况进一步恶化。

纽约商品交易所五月交付的轻质低硫原油的价格下跌0.54美元，达到了每桶41.22美元。伦敦ICE期货交易所六月到期的布伦特原油下跌了1.4%，跌至每桶43.55美元。

石油输出国组织在月报中指出，由于消费减慢，增加了市场过剩的供给量，将2016年需求增幅预估下调5万桶/日。据推测，2016年的需求将增长120万桶/日，达到9418万桶/日。

OPEC表示，由于拉丁美洲的经济势头下降以及中国增长的不确定性，对石油需求的预期做出了小幅调整。

OPEC 表示，拉丁美洲经济发展的不确定性和中国经济增长放缓对石油需求的影响是巨大的，尤其是中国。

中国三月的进出口数据皆出乎意料，其出口量同比增长11.5%，进口量同比下降7.6%。原油进口量增长13%，达到3260万桶，约合每天771万桶。

需求的增长主要来源于战略储备。越来越多的私人炼油厂，即茶壶炼油厂推动了进口量的增长。

安迅思中国研究总监李莉表示：“茶壶炼油厂将成为中国进口的重要组成部分，随着获得的进口配额越来越多，这些炼油厂将继续发展壮大。”

近两年来，原油供应过剩导致油价不断下跌，而这一情况仍会延续一段时间。

截至4月8日，美国原油库存在一周内增加660万桶，超过了预期的180万桶。最新的库存数据已经超过了5.36亿桶，创下了历史新高。但自2014年九月以来，原油产量首次跌至900万桶/日以下。

在当前的市场中，交易员都忽略了金融危机，而库存则成为了衡量基础平衡的重要指标。

所有人都在关注周日的多哈会议，主要制造商将在会上讨论是否要冻结产量。也有人预测，集团将在伊朗的石油产量将至制裁前水平之后才会进行产量冻结。

市场对此的观点各不相同。有人认为将产量冻结在当前水平有利于需求赶超供应。而另一些则认为这改变不了供大于求的现状，油价需要继续维持在较低水平，从而淘汰弱者。

法国兴业银行首席石油分析家认为：“周日之前，油价会达到最高点，会议结果越让人失望，油价下跌的风险越大。” “The higher prices go before Sunday, the纽约商品交易所重整了基准原油，基准汽油合约下跌了85.00001点，跌至每加仑1.5210美元，而五月柴油则下跌了65个点，跌至1.2591美元。

ICE五月汽油的成交价为每吨372.75美元，较周三下跌了4.25美元。

Oil prices eroded further after OPEC warns of waning demand

Crude-oil prices headed lower on Thursday, suppressed by worries of an expanding supply glut after the world’s oil cartel warned that demand growth could slow.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange CLK6, -1.32%  , light, sweet crude futures for delivery in May traded at $41.22 a barrel, down $0.54, or 1.3% in the Globex electronic session. June Brent crude LCOM6, -1.45%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.63, or 1.4%, to $43.55 a barrel.

In its closely watched monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for 2016 oil-demand growth by 50,000 barrels a day. Demand for the commodity will now rise by 1.20 million barrels a day to 94.18 million barrels a day, according to its projections.

The downgrade, though small, is underpinned by slower economic momentum in Latin America and uncertainties in China’s growth, OPEC said.

“There is great uncertainty as to whether weakening economic activity in Latin America and signals of a slowdown in China will be reflected in oil-demand data, especially for China,” the organization said.

China’s exports unexpectedly rose 11.5% in March from the previous year, while imports declined 7.6%, a less-than-expected drop. Crude imports rose 13% to 32.6 million tons, however, equivalent to 7.71 million barrels a day.

Much of China’s thirst for crude comes from continuing efforts to fill up strategic reserves. A growing number of private refiners, known as teapots, is also driving up imports.

“The teapots have become an indispensable part of China’s imports and they will likely get stronger as the government issues importing quotas to more of them,” said Li Li, a research director with ICIS China.

An oversupply of crude has sunk prices for nearly two years and the latest expansion in U.S. crude stocks have stoked fears the rout might last longer.

U.S. crude inventories grew 6.6 million barrels in the week ended April 8, surpassing the expected 1.8 million barrel increase. The latest addition brought commercial stockpiles to a new high of more than 536 million barrels. However, production fell below 9 million barrels a day for the first time since September 2014.

“We think inventories are a key measure of the current weak fundamental balance in the market that the traders ignore at their financial peril,” said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst.

All eyes will be on the Doha meeting on Sunday in which key producers are set to discuss a possible production freeze. There is also speculation the group will delay the freeze for Iran until its output reaches pre-sanction levels.

Market views on the issue have been mixed. Some say a freeze at the recent level will allow demand to catch up. Others argue it will hardly chip away at the glut and that oil prices need to stay lower for longer to weed out weaker competitors.

bigger the downside risk becomes if the outcome is in some way disappointing,” said Michael Wittner, chief oil analyst at Société Générale.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for May RBK6, -0.63%   — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 85.00001 points to $1.5210 a gallon, while May diesel traded at $1.2591, 65 points lower.

ICE gasoil for May changed hands at $372.75 a metric ton, down $4.25 from Wednesday’s settlement.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-eroded-further-after-opec-warns-of-waning-demand-2016-04-14