兴业银行经济学家认为衰退将不可避免的出现

 Dan Moskowitz

法国兴业银行的全球战略师Albert Edwards认为经济衰退的出现是不可避免的。他语言的根据是历史盈利趋势。根据Albert Edwards的说法，由于反对重新分配资本进行增长，在股息分配和回购上的问题已经增加。这导致了工人由于缺乏经验的生产问题。现在的劳动力成本和科技泡沫时期一样高。与此同时，产品和服务生产商正失去定价权。这些问题都使他们进入了一个两难境地。

现在的消费者都在谨慎消费。尽管最近油价大幅下跌，大多数消费者都把节省下来的钱储蓄起来而不是花掉他们。这有时候与学生债务和健康保险有关，这些在过去几年中成本增加都过高。消费者比过去存储更多资金的另一个原因是对未来缺乏信心。同样的，人们知道他们必须进行更多的退休储蓄因为固定收入市场的收益十分微小甚至没有收入。

如果生产商缺少定价权，他们就不能产生足够的收入弥补劳动力成本的增加。如果他们不能支付增加的劳动力成本，他们就不能与同行业竞争并失去市场份额。在这种环境下，资产状况最好的公司表现将更加优异，仅仅因为他们能更好的度过难关。在股票方面，他们可以继续增加股息并回购更多股份。后者将减少股票总量并增加每股收益，这将有助于推动股价上涨。

Downunder Daily的创始人和前摩根士丹利分析师Gerard Minack认为当前的利润衰退主要是因为能源板块的疲软并且他认为可以和1985年的能源收入衰退相比。他同时还表示衰退是随着美联储的紧缩政策出现的。

收入衰退

放眼全局，Edwards担心利润的大幅度下降可能导致经济衰退，即使美联储采取温和态度。这将是一个苦难的境地，因为美联储可能没有可操作的空间。

Edwards还指出现在和1985年不一样，因为现在的GDP增长接近于零，而1985年是4%。换句话说，Edwards认为2017年GDP可能不会出现增长。Edwards同时还表示美联储在1986年把利率8%削减到6%。然而在不久的未来，美联储没有太多削减利率的空间。然而美国国内不太可能接受负利率政策。负利率政策在包括欧洲和日本在内的其他经济体没有产生预期的作用。

经济衰退的另一个潜在风险是股票抛售可能降低对经济的信心。虽然美联储的温和态度使发生这种情况的几率很低，但是根据历史走势这种情况发生的几率很高。目前，标准普尔的远期市盈率为16.8，而10年平均市盈率为14.2，5年平均市盈率为14.4。

总结

目前的收入并不让人印象深刻。得益于低利率，这种情况已经持续多年并且股市开始反弹。你必须确定收入或者美联储哪个影响更大。

SocGen Economist: Recession is Inevitable

By Dan Moskowitz

Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, believes a recession is inevitable. His prophecy relates to historical earnings trends. According to Edwards, part of the problem has been increased allocation to dividends and buybacks for several years as opposed to allocating that capital to growth. This has led to a production problem in regards to workers’ lack of experience. Labor costs are currently as high as during the tech bubble. At the same time, producers of products and services are losing pricing power. This presents a dilemma.

Today’s consumer is cost conscious. Despite the recent plunge in gas prices, most consumers are saving the extra money as opposed to spending it. This sometimes relates to student debt and/or health insurance, which have both seen exorbitant cost increases over the past few years. Another reason consumers might be saving more than in the past is a lack of confidence in the future. Also, people saving for retirement know they must allocate more capital to retirement due to little to no returns in the fixed-income market. 

If producers lack pricing power, then they can’t generate enough revenue to cover the increased labor costs. If they can’t pay the increased labor costs, then they can’t compete with their peers and lose market share. In this environment, the companies with the strongest capital positions are likely to outperform, simply because they can weather the storm better. In regards to equities, they can continue to hike their dividends and buy back more shares. The latter reduces share count and increases earnings per share, which then helps move the stock price higher.

Earnings Recession

Looking at the bigger picture, Edwards fears that a deep profits downturn might lead to recession, even with the Federal Reserve taking a dovish stance. This would be a difficult scenario because the Fed would have little maneuverability.

Gerard Minack, founder of Downunder Daily and former Morgan Stanley analyst, feels as though the current profits recession is primarily due to weakness in the energy sector and he compares it to the 1985 energy earnings recession. He also stated that recessions are only accompanied by Fed tightening.

Edwards also points out that it’s not 1985 because current GDP growth is close to nil while 1985 GDP growth was 4%. In other words, Edwards doesn’t see any possibility of GDP growth in 2017. Another factor that Edwards points to is that the Federal Reserve cut rates to 6% from 8% in 1986. Looking to the near future, there isn’t much place for the Fed to move on the downside. And negative interest rates, what once seemed like a possibility in the United States, has been attacked by economists and taken off the table domestically. Negative interest rates haven’t proven to have the intended impact in other economies including Japan and Europe. 

Another potential risk for recession is an equity sell off that could lead to reduced confidence in the economy. With a dovish Federal Reserve, this is less likely of a possibility, but valuations are high on a historical basis. Currently, the S&P 500 has a forward p/e of 16.8 versus a 10-year average of 14.2 and a five-year average of 14.4.

The Bottom Line

Earnings aren’t impressive at the moment. This has been the case for years and the market has rallied, thanks to low interest rates. You have to determine what will hold more weight: earnings or the Fed. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/041516/socgen-economist-recession-inevitable.asp