中国经济被逼到角落了吗？

Dan Moskowitz

当环境变坏时世界上第二大经济体将会怎么做呢？提高流动性。为什么不呢？其他经济体都在这样做。那么哪里会出错呢？你是说需要几十年来偿还的极端债务水平？那有什么关系，那是下一代需要考虑的事情。

我们以前见过这样的情景而且它还没结束。这不仅仅发生在中国，日本、欧洲和美国也发生过。毫无疑问，这将为全球经济带来极为严重的后果。在中国的案例中，是什么证明经济正在疲软而中国将怎样应对呢。让我们来看一下。

制造业萎缩

正如你所知道的，中国正尝试从制造和投资驱动型经济向服务和消费型经济转变。这可能在长期有意义，但是现在中国的消费人口正在进入老龄化而且消费者由于极端的股市波动不像前几年那样有信心。像美国一样，股票市场将对消费者的心理产生巨大影响。我们可以在咖啡师和调酒师的增长上看到服务业的增长。但是这些咖啡师和调酒师不能驱动世界上第二大经济体。

这意味着制造业仍然扮演着重要角色，但是这不是一个好消息。今年2月，制造业出现连续7个月的萎缩，PMI从1月的49.4变成49.0。低于50意味着出现萎缩，而高于50意味着扩张。这一数据不应该使人们震惊，因为GDP增长已经放缓。这些都是相关联的。

即使这与你没有关系，也请注意中国刚刚宣布将在未来三年裁员500万到600万工人。这对中国的13.5亿人口来说是个很小的比例，但是这可能预示着出现更加糟糕的情况。

问题是中国只有提高流动性才能对其经济有所帮助，但是如果提高流动性，那么其信用资质将会受到严重冲击。

穆迪公司的信用等级下调

穆迪公司刚刚把中国的Aa3政府债券信用等级从稳定变为负面。它指出政府资产负债表上的债务正在大幅度增加，而且由于资本外流导致的外汇储备下降将可能引发货币和经济增长风险。穆迪公司最近曾指出：“继续增长的高债务水平增加了经济急剧放缓的风险，因为债务限制其他支出或使市场中银行资产恶化。”根据穆迪公司的数据，中国当前的政府债务水平是GDP的40.6，而2012年是32.5%。穆迪公司认为政府债务将在2017年达到GDP的43%。

穆迪公司还指出中国当前的外汇储备为3.2万亿美元。这是一个有力的支撑，但是该数据在2014年超过3.9万亿美元。穆迪公司认为中国将出现一个缓慢的经济增长速度下降。它认为经济增长速度下降缓慢的唯一原因是政府对经济增长的支持。

总结

明显的，中国的经济增长速度正在放缓但是政府不确定如何处理这一问题。它可以在减少当前债务水平的同时维持经济下降的现状并为下一个经济繁荣做准备，或者向系统增加流动性以便促进暂时经济增长。后者将会增加信用等级降低的风险并且不会产生长远影响。

Is the Chinese Economy Backed into a Corner?

By Dan Moskowitz

What is the second-largest economy expected to do when conditions are weakening? Boost liquidity. Why not? Everyone else is doing it. What could possibly go wrong? Extreme debt levels that will take decades to pay off, you say? Oh well, that’s the next generation’s problem.

We have seen this movie before and it doesn’t end well. It also doesn’t just apply to China, but Japan, the Eurozone and the United States to name a few. There is no doubt that the consequences will eventually be dire for the global economy. In the case of China, what is the proof that the economy is weakening and how does China deal with it? Let’s check it out. 

Manufacturing Contraction

As you might already know, China is attempting to move from a manufacturing and investment-based economy to a services and consumption-based economy. This might make sense for the long haul, but as of right now China has an aging consumer population that was the result of the one-child policy and consumers aren’t as confident as they were just a few short years ago due to extreme volatility in equities. Just as in the United States, the stock market can have a significant psychological impact on consumers. As far as the services sector is concerned, the growth is being seen in baristas and bartenders. This definitely helps when those same consumers are coming from poverty, but baristas and bartenders aren’t going to drive the second-largest economy in the world.

This all means that manufacturing still plays a big role and that’s not good news. In February, manufacturing contracted for the seventh consecutive month, with PMI coming in at 49.0 versus 49.4 in January. Any number below 50 indicates contraction, whereas any number above 50 indicates expansion. This reading shouldn’t shock anyone since GDP growth has been slowing. It’s all connected. 

Even if that’s not concerning to you, consider the fact that China just announced it would lay off between five and six million workers over the next three years. This is a small number given China’s 1.35 billion population, but it doesn’t help, and it might portend a more ominous situation.

The dilemma is that the only way China can help its economy is to boost liquidity. But if it boosts liquidity, then its credit profile could take a significant hit. Take it from Moody's.

Moody’s Downgrade

Moody’s just downgraded China’s Aa3 government bond to negative from stable. It cited government debt, large and rising liabilities on the government balance sheet, and a fall in reserve buffers due to capital outflows that highlight currency and growth risks. The following quote is from Moody’s: “High and rising SOE (State Owned Enterprise) leverage raises the risk of either a sharp slowdown in economic growth, as debt servicing constrains other spending, or a market deterioration on bank asset quality.” According to Moody’s calculations, China’s government debt is currently 40.6% of GDP versus 32.5% of GDP in 2012. Moody’s expects government debt to reach 43% of GDP in 2017.

Moody’s also noted that China’s foreign exchange reserves currently total $3.2 trillion. This is a positive, but that number stood at more than $3.9 trillion in 2014. Moody’s expects China to experience a gradual economic slowdown. The only reason it’s expected to be gradual is because of authorities supporting growth.

The Bottom Line

China’s economy is absolutely slowing and the Chinese government isn’t sure how to approach the problem. It can either allow for the economy to falter and plan for the next boom while minimizing debt accumulation or add liquidity to the system in order to temporarily fuel growth. The latter would increase the risk of reduced credit quality and would likely have no sustainable impact anyway. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/041816/chinese-economy-backed-corner.asp