现在全球经济有多脆弱？

Dan Moskowitz

国际货币基金组织（IMF）认为当前的全球经济非常脆弱。IMF的担忧程度甚至到了要求20国集团协调出一个计划以帮助那些最脆弱的国家。这不是第一次发生这样的情况，但是这次和以往大不相同。

IMF的2016年预期

IMF最近将2016年全球经济增长预测从3.6%降低到3.4%。这一预期可能仍然高于最终结果，做出进一步下调也不会使任何人感到吃惊。

IMF指出了一些令其担忧的原因，其中包括石油价格下跌、中国出现25年来最低的经济增长速度、地区因素和美国不同寻常的宽松货币政策。

中国是一个关键因素，因为它是多年来全球经济增长的最大动量。此外，许多国家都有对中国的出口贸易。如果中国经济增长放缓，那么这些国家也将受到影响，这将有可能蔓延到全球。也许可能已经出现这一趋势，只是还不太明显。

IMF预测中国2016年的经济增长速度将为6.3%，而2017年将为6%。中国2015年的经济增长速率为6.9%。因此如果IMF的预测正确，甚至是接近正确数值，那么中国经济增长速度正在下降。这毫无疑问将会给全球经济造成负面影响。你必须还要知道中国的经济数字不规范，这意味着中国本质上的增长速度可能只是4%。IMF认为中国需要一段时间才能达到再平衡。不幸的是，这将对其他新兴经济体造成负面影响。

从油价下跌的角度来说，其原因是供应过剩和需求减少，而需求下降与中国有直接关系。通常情况下，油价下跌将会导致需求增加，但是现在却不是这样，因为在过去六年中人口老龄化和过多的债务已经给全球带来沉重负担。这导致需要进行去债务化，而持续经济增长和去债务化不能同时出现。

地区因素是不可预测的。因此，不能做出确定的断定。

在美国，货币政策导致债务过高和资产价格混乱。我们不能确定美联储的下一步举措是什么，但是根据IMF的判断，融通性货币政策即将结束。

IMF认为最大的亮点出现在印度，但是由于受到中国的影响印度不能在近期成为全球经济增长的催化剂。

IMF也发现了一些可能出现转机的因素，包括巴西、俄罗斯和中东，这些国家和地区都已经遭受了经济不景气。

货币刺激：过去和现在

在2009年，IMF呼吁各国共同努力防止出现经济萧条。由于当时央行储备充足，他们取得了成功，当时被称为“可操作的空间很大”。这些推迟了经济问题的出现，但是同时因为超高的债务水平使问题更加严重。所有的债务必须进行去债务化，否则全球经济将因为这一因素不能稳定增长。

如果你希望能再次出现急救措施，那么你可能要失望了，因为没有足够的操作空间。全球现在有五家央行尝试了负利率政策，但是到目前为止他们都没取得理想的效果。IMF正在呼吁公众进行投资，但是这不能产生持续影响。唯一合理的方案是通过利率正常化进行修正、使股市淘汰输家、这将增加赢家的市场份额、为储户提供比投机者更多的福利、在长时间内偿还债务，这些将使未来的繁荣变得有生命力。

总结

IMF认为全球经济现在非常脆弱。除非潜在条件非常令人不安，否则IMF不会发出这样的信息。最近我们已经发现了所有市场都在剧烈波动。极端的波动之后通常会出现市场崩溃。这并不是说股市将会崩盘。然而，这是我们需要小心谨慎的一个原因。

Just How Vulnerable is the Global Economy?

By Dan Moskowitz

According to the IMF, the global economy is highly vulnerable. The IMF is even concerned enough that it has requested that the G20 coordinate a plan to help protect the most vulnerable nations. This isn’t the first time this has happened, but today’s conditions are much different.

IMF’s 2016 Expectations

The IMF recently lowered its 2016 global growth forecast to 3.4% from 3.6%. This projection could still eventually prove to be high, and further downgrades should not shock anyone throughout the year.

The IMF points to several key reasons to be concerned, which include lower oil prices, China growing at its slowest pace in 25 years, geopolitics, and “the exit from extraordinary accommodative monetary policy in the United States.”

China is a key factor here because it has been the biggest driver of global growth for many years. Additionally, many countries export to China. If China’s economy slows, then so do the economies of all those exporting nations, which then has the potential to lead to global contagion. It’s possible that we’re already in the beginning of this phase, but it has yet to be made obvious.

The IMF expects China’s GDP growth to come in at 6.3% for 2016, followed by 6% in 2017. China’s economy grew at a 6.9% clip in 2015. Therefore, if the IMF is correct, or even close to being correct, then China’s economy is slowing, not accelerating. This, without a doubt, will have a negative impact on global growth. You also have to consider that China’s economic numbers aren’t regulated, which means that China could essentially be growing at a 4% clip and nobody would know. The IMF expects China’s rebalancing to take time to play out. Unfortunately, this will negatively impact other emerging markets.

As far as lower oil prices are concerned, this relates to oversupply and reduced demand, the latter of which relates to China. In most cases, lower oil prices leads to increased demand, but this isn’t the case today due to aging populations and so much debt having been taken on around the world over the past six years. This has led to the need to deleverage, and sustainable growth and deleveraging do not go hand-in-hand.

Geopolitics are unpredictable. Therefore, no conviction-based assertions can be made.

In the United States, monetary policy has led to excessive debts and distorted asset prices. There is no guarantee as to what the Federal Reserve will do next, but according to the IMF, that highly accommodative monetary policy is over.

The biggest bright spot the IMF sees is India, but India is not expected to act as an upside catalyst for the global economy in the near future due to being negatively impacted by China.

The IMF does see a few potential turnaround stories, including Brazil, Russia and the Middle East, all of which have suffered from economic distress.

Monetary Stimulus: Then & Now

Back in 2009, the IMF called for a coordinated effort to prevent a global depression. They got what they wanted thanks to plenty of central bank ammunition being available, otherwise known as “a lot of room to move.” All this really did was postpone the inevitable and made the situation worse due to record debt levels. All that debt must be deleveraged, and the global economy will not be able to sustain growth as this transpires.

If you’re hoping for another bailout, you might be out of luck, simply because there is not a lot of room to move. Five central banks around the world have attempted negative interest rates, but so far they have been a dismal failure. That leaves very few options on the table. The IMF is calling for public investment, but this won't have a sustainable impact. The only logical option is to take the medicine now by normalizing interest rates; let the stock market weed out the losers, which will increase market share for the winners; begin rewarding savers more than speculators; and pay off our debts for the long haul, which will make the next boom an organic one.

The Bottom Line

The IMF feels as though the global economy is highly vulnerable. The IMF doesn’t release such a statement unless underlying conditions are troubling. We have recently seen extremely volatility throughout markets. Extreme volatility usually precedes market crashes. This isn’t to say the stock market will crash. However, it is reason for caution.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030116/just-how-vulnerable-global-economy.asp