油价突破48美元 分析家仍未看好

亚洲交易时间周二上午，原油供应中断，全球市场呈现供不应求的趋势，因此油价出现进一步上涨。

但分析家认为，见利抛售和对市场缺乏信心者大有人在，因此油价很难继续走高。

纽约商品交易所，六月交付的轻质低硫原油期货上涨了1%，达到每桶48.18美元。伦敦ICE交易所，七月交付的布伦特原油成交价为49.30美元，上涨了0.5%。

近两年来，全球石油一直处于供大于求的状态，因此油价在今年初跌至每桶26美元。但加拿大、尼日利亚、利比亚等地区的供应中断缓解了这一状况，前景似乎很美好。

ANZ 调查机构认为：“持续的原油供应中断会在短期内抬高油价。”

油价在今年二月创下了历史最低记录，当前的油价较最低价格上涨了85%。但长时间的低油价大大降低了上游制造商的热情，美国页岩油已经连续减产多月。在5月6日那一周，美国原油产量减少了880万桶/天，其产量是2014年9月以来的最低记录。

其他地区的石油产量也有所下降。今年四月，中国的原油产量下降了5.6%，目前为每天1660万桶。

高盛投资公司在周一的报告中指出：“石油市场由供应过剩转为供不应求的时间比我们想象的要早得多。全球石油市场很可能在五月份完全转变为供不应求的状况。”这些看涨的评论推动WTI原油继续走高，现已涨至去年11月以来的最高点。

但银行也提醒投资者小心逆向趋势。美国、北海、伊拉克、伊朗等地区的产量可能会迅速回升，这足以弥补石油的短缺。

银行认为，石油赤字仍会在2016年下半年出现，但石油短缺量预计由90万桶/天降至40万桶/天。这意味着在2017年上半年，全球市场仍会回归供大于求。

虽然油价即将冲破50美元大关，但一些分析家认为，上升趋势很快就会结束。

辉立期货的Avtar Sandhu认为：“50美元是一个关键的心理价位。事实上，原油市场仍处于供大于求的状态。”

Sandhu 说道：“投资者需要的是稳步、持久的上升。见利抛售的人们会将油价拉回45美元的水平。”

本周，美国原油库存可能会减少300万桶。美国能源署的官方数据将在周三发布。

Oil prices push past $48-a-barrel, while analysts wait for the selloff

Oil prices gained further traction in early Asian trade Tuesday, buoyed by the ongoing supply outages and bullish outlook that the global market has flipped into a deficit.

However, analysts expect profit-taking and lack of confidence in the rally will likely hinder prices from climbing higher.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June CLM6, +0.92%  traded at $48.18, up $0.47, or 1%, in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude LCON6, +0.49%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.26, or 0.5%, to $49.30 a barrel.

Global oil production has outstripped demand for nearly two years, causing prices to drop as low as $26 a barrel earlier this year. However, production disruptions in Canada, Nigeria and Libya has helped chip away some of the glut, prompting a rosier outlook.

“The increasing intensity in supply-side disruptions in the oil market should see prices well supported in the short term,” said ANZ Research.

While prices have risen 85% since dropping to its 13-year low in February, the lingering low prices have also made it uneconomical for many upstream producers to keeping pumping, sending U.S. shale production on a steady decline in recent months. In the week ended May 6, U.S. crude production fell to 8.8 million barrels a day, lowest level since September 2014.

Elsewhere, production of crude has also dropped. In April, China’s crude production dipped 5.6% to 16.6 million tons or 4.05 million barrels a day.

“The oil market has gone from nearing storage saturation to being in deficit much earlier than we expected,” said Goldman Sachs in a report Monday, adding that the global oil market likely shifted into a deficit in May. The bullish comments pushed WTI crude to its highest settlement since early November on Monday.

“The $50 mark is more of a psychological barrier. The truth is, there is still plenty of oil in the market and the glut is still there.”Avtar Sandhu, Phillip Futures.

However, the bank also warned of headwinds. The return of some of the production outages and higher-than-previously expected U.S., North Sea, Iraq and Iran production could more than offset the persistence of some of the disruptions.

“As a result, while we still forecast a deficit in second half of 2016, it is now smaller than we had expected at 400,000 barrels a day versus 900,000 barrels a day previously. This also leads us to expect that the global market imbalance will shift back into surplus in first half of 2017,” said the bank.

Although prices are making their way up toward the $50-a-barrel mark, some analysts said the rally might be short-lived.

“The $50 mark is more of a psychological barrier. The truth is, there is still plenty of oil in the market and the glut is still there,” said Avtar Sandhu, chief commodity analyst at Phillip Futures.

“What investors need is a more sustained and stabilized rally. Profit-taking could take prices back down to the $45 level,” said Sandhu.

For this week, investors will be eyeing the weekly U.S. crude stocks and production for cues. In an analysts survey by Platts, U.S. crude stocks likely decreased 3 million barrels last week. Official data by the U.S. Energy Department will be released on Wednesday.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-push-past-48-a-barrel-while-analysts-wait-for-the-selloff-2016-05-17