2016年黄金价格上涨的四个原因

 Elvis Picardo

2016年前五个月金融行业的发展出现了许多令人意想不到的结果，最大惊喜仍然是黄金投资的热度恢复。截止到2016年5月11日，黄金已经上涨了20.3%，而标准普尔500指数只上涨了1%，,汤森路透CRB商品指数也只上涨了4%。黄金在2016年第一季度的表现尤为使人影响深刻，17%的增长是最近30年中的最大单季度涨幅。下面是四个黄金在2016年价格上涨的原因。

1.美元回落：黄金历来与美元都是成反比关系，美元强势将会压低黄金价格，而美元疲软将会导致黄金价格上涨。在2015年尾，对美联储将在2016年进行4次25个基准点的加息的预测使美元在外汇市场占据了统治地位。由于欧洲和日本等主要经济体将继续实行量化宽松，投资者认为这种货币政策差异将导致美元在2016年继续升高。但是之后发生了未能预料到的事件。对经济增长放缓将席卷美国的担忧，主要是来自中国，导致全球股票在1月出现了有史以来最差的年初表现。虽然市场已经稳定，这些问题还是导致市场参与者降低了2016年美联储利率上涨的预期。这导致美元回落，促使包括黄金在内的许多大宗商品价格上涨。

2.避险吸引力：黄金在近年来逐渐减弱的避险投资吸引力在2016年第一季度在很大程度上回归。除了2016年前六周的巨大市场波动，投资者还不得不面对许多其他事件的影响，例如布鲁塞尔恐怖袭击和之前发生巴黎恐怖袭击、日益增长的欧洲难民危机、中东地区的政治动荡、大宗商品和能源价格崩溃、投资者对欧洲银行系统的不信任，黄金是这些事件中的最大受益者。 

3.负利率政策：1月29日，日本央行将利率设置到了零以下，加入了利用负利率刺激经济增长的国家行列。负利率增加黄金上涨趋势，因为持有黄金的机会成本将会降低。同时，投资者将更情愿持有黄金，因为至少将获得一个获利的可能性，这比在负利率债券和其他工具中获得固定亏损更容易接受。 

4.实际需求：上述因素导致对黄金实际需求的增加。黄金ETF资产今年增加23%达到1800吨，该数字为2013年12月以来的最高点。截止到5月4日，纽约商品交易所的黄金未平仓合约数量达到2011年1月以来最高点。世界黄金协会2月的报告指出，由于央行的购买和强劲的消费需求，2015年第四季度的黄金需求增加4%达到10个季度的最高点。

总结

虽然在过去几个月接连上涨，人们对黄金前景的看法仍然分歧严重。包括Paul Singer和Stan Druckenmiller在内的主流对冲基金经理认为黄金还有很大的上扬空间，而高盛最近下调了对黄金目标价格的预测，其12个月1150每盎司的黄金目标价格预测低于当前1277每盎司。在任何情况下，黄金反弹的真正原因都来自美联储。美联储在2015年12月进行了10年来的首次联邦储备金利率上调，许多市场观察者认为第二次加息将最早发生在2016年6月。

Gold is Glittering in 2016: Here are 4 Reasons Why (GLD)

By Elvis Picardo, CFA

While the first five months of 2016 have already been replete with unexpected developments on the financial front, one of the biggest surprises has been gold regaining its luster as an investment. As of May 11, 2016, the precious metal had advanced 20.3% for the year, compared with a meager 1% gain for the S&P 500 and a 4% increase for the Thomson Reuters CRB Commodity Index. Gold's performance was especially impressive in the first quarter of 2016, when it surged 17% for its biggest quarterly gain in three decades. Here are four reasons why gold is glittering in 2016.

1.Dollar pullback: Gold has historically had an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar - a strong USD depresses the price of gold, while a weak USD results in higher gold prices. As 2015 drew to a close, the USD was reigning supreme in forex markets, based on widespread expectations for as many four 25 basis-point rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2016. With major economies like Europe and Japan still on the quantitative easing path, this monetary policy divergence was expected to propel the greenback relentlessly higher in 2016. But then something unforeseen happened. Concerns about slower economic growth, which had hitherto centered on China, engulfed the U.S. as well, resulting in global equities recording their worst start to a year in January. While markets have since stabilized, these concerns have caused market participants to ratchet down their expectations for Fed rate increases in 2016, to one or perhaps two hikes of a quarter percentage point. The USD has retreated as a result, boosting prices higher for many commodities, with gold in the forefront of this advance. 

2.Safe haven appeal: Gold's appeal as a safe haven investment, which seemed to have been waning in recent years, came back in a big way in the first quarter of 2016. In addition to tremendous market volatility in the first six weeks of 2016, investors had to contend with a number of other developments - the terror attacks in Brussels, which occurred just a few months after the Paris attacks ; the mushrooming refugee crisis in Europe; geopolitical rumblings in the Middle East; a collapse in commodity and energy prices; and worries about the banking sector in Europe and the U.S. Gold was the biggest beneficiary of this upsurge in uncertainty. 

3.Negative interest rates: On January 29, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly set its policy rate below zero, joining a growing number of nations - about two dozen at last count - that have set negative interest rates in order to stimulate their economies. Negative interest rates help gold because the opportunity cost of holding bullion is reduced. As well, investors may prefer holding gold because at least the prospect of some gain exists, which is preferable to locking in a definite loss on a bond or instrument that has a negative yield. 

4.Physical demand: The combination of the above factors has led to surging physical demand for gold. Assets in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have increased 23% this year to 1,800 tons, the highest since December 2013, after three straight years of declines for gold ETF assets. As of May 4, open interest in Comex gold futures was at its highest since January 2011. The World Gold Council reported in February that gold demand in the fourth quarter of 2015 rose 4% to its highest in 10 quarters, thanks to buying by central banks and robust consumer demand.

The Bottom Line

Although the bull camp has seen its ranks swell in recent months, gold continues to be a polarizing subject. While leading hedge fund managers such as Paul Singer and Stan Druckenmiller are of the view that the precious metal has much more upside, Goldman Sachs recently lowered its price targets for gold; its 12-month target of $1,150 per ounce is 10% lower than gold's current price of $1,277. In any case, the true test of gold's resilience will come when the Federal Reserve - which in December 2015 raised the federal funds rate for the first time in a decade - finally makes its second rate hike, which some market watchers believe could potentially occur as soon as June 2016.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/051316/gold-glittering-2016-here-are-4-reasons-why-gld.asp