现在是黄金的黄金时间吗？

 

正如我同事Jean Boivin最近说的，央行们正在推动货币政策的外部局限性。这将带来很多奇怪的影响，其中重要的一点是当前主要债务的负收益交易。如果你现在购买日本政府债务，那么你将需要支付利息。欢迎来到投资者向借款人支付利息的世界。

 

央行要为这种梦幻般状态的形成负主要责任，即使他们决定扭转这一局面，实际借贷利息也将远远低于历史常态。人口和经济增长缓慢等因素造成了实际利率处在低水平的情况。

 

总之，这将为投资者造成收益匮乏的严重情况。讽刺的是，作为补救的黄金也不产生任何收入。

 

虽然对黄金的预测比其他资产类别要多的多，但是黄金预测仍然是没有把握的事情。首先，投资者不认为黄金是大宗商品、货币或者“野蛮的遗迹”。即使像我这样把黄金看成一个投资组合中必要角色的投资者也必须承认黄金的估值是非常苦难的。没有现金流进行折现，黄金与原油甚至其他贵金属不同，它的工业用途非常少。

 

现在是交易黄金的完美时间吗？

也就是说，在某些环境中产生比其他环境对黄金更好的影响。黄金不需要支付利息或者股息，持有黄金的机会成本是回报的主要驱动因素。在低利率或者负利率时期机会成本较低，黄金通常会比在高利率时期表现要好。我的同事Heidi Richardson最近也在一篇文章中提到过这一现象。彭博社的数据显示，自1971年以来美国十年期国债的实际收益约为黄金价格年变化的35%。在那些实际利率高于平均水平（2.50%）的年份中，黄金的平均年增长率为0.50%。然而，在实际利率低于历史平局水平的年份中，黄金的平均增长率为21%。

 

虽然实际利率在历史上对黄金表现的影响最为重要，但是通胀对黄金表现的影响也非常关键。黄金表现最好的年份是实际利率低且通胀上涨的年份。彭博社的数据显示自1971年以来有12年符合这一条件。黄金价格在这十二年中有十一年在上涨，其平均回报超过35%。

 

由于经济增长缓慢、美联储态度谨慎和日本与欧洲负债务收益率的影响，美国的实际利率将在近期维持在低水平。同时，随着去年美元加息和石油下跌的影响开始消退，核心通胀和工资开始上涨。这恰好是历史上对黄金非常有利。

 

Are These the Golden Days for Gold?

 

By Russ Koesterich | May 19, 2016 

 

As my colleague Jean Boivin recently wrote, central banks are pushing the outer limits of monetary policy. This has had many odd side effects, not the least of which is a significant portion of sovereign debt today trading at a negative yield. If you buy government bonds from Japan today, you’d have to pay interest. Welcome to a world in which investors pay for the privilege of lending money.

 

Although central banks have been the primary architect of this surreal state of affairs, even if they decide to reverse course, real borrowing costs are likely to remain low relative to the historic norm. Factors such as demographics and tepid economic growth are contributing to the unusually low level of real interest rates (i.e. after inflation).

 

All told, this is a serious problem for yield starved investors. Ironically, one potential remedy is to take a second look at an asset class that provides no income: gold.

 

Even more than other asset classes, making predictions about gold is a dubious exercise. For starters, investors can barely agree on what gold is: commodity, currency or “barbaric relic.” Even investors like myself, who see a legitimate role for gold in a portfolio, need to admit that gold is extremely difficult to value. There is no cash flow to discount and, unlike oil or even other precious metals like silver or platinum, gold has few industrial uses.

 

Is now the perfect time and place for gold?

That said, some environments have been more kind to gold than others. As gold pays no interest or dividend, the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal is a critical driver of returns. During periods of low or negative real rates, when the opportunity cost is low, gold has generally performed better than in periods when real rates are higher. My colleague Heidi Richardson also mentioned this in a recent post. According to Bloomberg data, since 1971, the level of real U.S. 10-year yields has explained roughly 35 percent of the annual change in the price of gold. In those years in which real rates were above average (roughly 2.50 percent), gold rose by an average of 0.50 percent. However, in those years when rates were below the historical average, gold rose by an average of 21 percent.

 

While real rates have historically had the most significant impact on gold’s performance, inflation, more particularly the direction of inflation, has mattered as well. The best years for gold were those in which real rates were low and inflation was rising. Since 1971 there have been 12 years that fit that description, as Bloomberg data shows. Gold rose in 11 of those 12 years with an average return of over 35 percent.

 

Given slow growth, a cautious Federal Reserve and the proliferation of negative sovereign yields in Japan and Europe, U.S. real rates are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future. At the same time, both core inflation and wages have been firming while the inflation drag from last year’s strong dollar and collapse in oil is beginning to fade. This is exactly the type of environment that has historically been most favorable to gold.

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/blackrock/articles/investing/051916/are-these-golden-days-gold.asp