新闻头条背后的欧洲 - 兄弟财经外汇返佣十七年信誉保障

Neuberger Berman 2016年5月18日

四月对投资者来说远远不是最残酷的月份。许多人都感到股票、高收益债券、新兴市场和大宗商品背后的情绪有所改善。但是他们真的意识到了欧洲资产表现有多好吗？

CIO Perspectives的追随者将会习惯我们“拿钱说话”的主题，因为直到基本面变得清晰以前确定市场风险是非常困难的。全球经济正处在“前进两步，倒退一步”的模式中，并且没有哪个区域能形成明确的领导地位。即使数据已经得到加强，美元升值仍然使美国公司的处境步履维艰。既然经济数据趋于疲软，那么应该是时候更加进一步观察欧洲的表现了。

是时候深挖头条新闻背后的欧洲了

我们将会将目光转移到稍后的表现。现在，让我们意识到关注头条新闻和想象欧洲在充满地区性风险的永久性危机中的情形是多么容易。然而再深挖一点，你会发现经济中积极因素和欧洲公司的良好定位。

例如，上周从希腊传来了好消息。希腊议会批准的改革引发了一个应该发放必要资金和展开潜在债务免除的救援讨论。

一周之前，欧元区的GDP快速增长和美国两年来最低的季度增长引发了同样的高度关注。周五，德国出示了强劲的GDP数据。欧洲的制造业数据和美国一样被混淆，但是令人鼓舞的是我们能看到西班牙和意大利的增长超过预期。欧洲的失业问题仍然非常严峻，但是近期的失业救助数据、劳动力参与率和非农就业数据还不清楚。

当然，这些都是相对的。欧洲在第一季度0.5%的经济增长与美国相同。重组希腊债务的意愿仍未出现。德国、法国和英国的工业产值正在下降。通胀根本没有产生。

但是欧洲机会的确不是一个大空话。它是欧洲公司投资行为背后的一系列因素。

欧洲公司显示出良好定位

欧洲公司往往在低油价中受益。他们对新兴市场的接触更多，在那些地方市场情绪可能得到改善。欧元区的资金供应近期出现强劲增长，而且欧洲央行在今年将会实行进一步的刺激。

刺激包括承诺购买公司债券，这将引发新一波欧元的发行，上周有约190亿欧元被投放进市场。债务是一个长期问题，但是与此同时它也发出了流动性充足且投资环境有利可图的情形可能会出现的信息。

这将是令人鼓舞的，因为欧洲公司将比美国同行拥有更多提高盈利的空间。欧洲企业的盈利回归到2010年的水平，没有恢复到金融危机之前的水平。相比之下，美国公司的盈利在2014年达到顶峰并在随后开始下降。

欧洲四月的表现是喜人的

转变还没有开始。随着第一季度业绩披露即将结束，标准普尔500每股收益同比仅下降5%，而在欧洲斯托克600的每股收益却下降21%，而且大家一致认为2016年每股收益的增长正在减弱。

尽管如此，我关注股票的同事有很好的理由来寻找美国之外的股票。让我们来看一下那些表现数据。

今年到目前为止，表现最差的市场仍然包括斯托克600、欧洲银行和意大利与德国的股票（中国和日本也一样）。但是四月的情形发生了重大转变，西班牙经济增长4%，意大利增长3%，而标准普尔500持平。对于美元投资者来说，结果甚至更好，因为到目前为止，西班牙股票对美元正处于上涨趋势。

在这个明显的机会少之又少的世界上，欧洲股票很可能将是一个引人瞩目的长期价值，而且市场现在可能已经多少发现了点这种价值。

The Europe Behind the Headlines

By Neuberger Berman | May 18, 2016

April was far from the cruelest month for investors. Most will have felt sentiment improve behind equities, high-yield bonds, emerging markets and commodities. But did they also notice how well European assets performed?

Followers of CIO Perspectives will be used to our “show-me-the-money” theme—the difficulty of building conviction on big market exposures until the fundamental picture clarifies. The global economy is in “two steps forward, one step back” mode, and no one region can establish clear leadership. The rising dollar made life tough for companies in the U.S. even as its data strengthened. Now that economic releases appear to be softening, it may be time to look more closely at Europe.

Time to Dig Below Europe’s Headlines

We’ll turn to performance later. For now, let’s acknowledge how easy it is to focus on headlines and imagine Europe is in permanent crisis, awash with geopolitical risk. Dig a little deeper, however, and you can find positives in its economies and favorable positioning among its companies.

Last week saw rare good news around Greece, for example. Its parliament approved reforms with little drama, triggering a bailout review that should release needed funds and potentially open up discussions on debt relief.

A week earlier, Eurozone GDP growth surprised on the upside just as the U.S. posted its slowest quarterly growth for two years. On Friday, Germany gave us a strong GDP print. Manufacturing data out of Europe has been mixed, as it has from the U.S., but it’s encouraging to see Italy and Spain exceeding expectations. Europe’s unemployment problem remains severe, but recent jobless claims, participation rates and non-farm payrolls data remind us it’s not all clear sailing in the U.S., either.

Of course, this is all relative. Europe’s 0.5% growth in Q1 was the same as the U.S.’s. The appetite to restructure Greek debt still isn’t there. Industrial production in Germany, France and the U.K. is weakening. Inflation is nonexistent.

But the European opportunity isn’t really a big macro call. It’s about a series of factors lining up behind the investment case for corporate Europe.

European Companies Appear Well Positioned

European companies tend to benefit from lower oil prices. They have more exposure to emerging markets, where sentiment may be improving. Eurozone money supply has been growing strongly, and there was further stimulus from the ECB this year.

That stimulus included a commitment to buy corporate bonds, which is creating a wave of new euro issuance: Almost €19 billion came to market last Wednesday alone. That leverage could be problematic in the long term, but in the meantime it sends a message that liquidity is abundant and profitable investments may be available.

That would be encouraging because European companies have much more room to improve earnings than their U.S. counterparts. Corporate profits are back where they were in 2010, having never regained pre-crisis levels. By contrast U.S. profits peaked in 2014 and have declined ever since.

Performance in April Was Encouraging

The turnaround isn’t underway yet: With the Q1 earnings season almost done, S&P 500 earnings per share are down just over 5% year-over-year; in Europe, the Stoxx 600 EPS is down 21%, and the consensus for 2016 EPS growth is weakening.

Nonetheless, my equity-focused colleagues are looking beyond the U.S. for good reason. Let’s look at those performance numbers.

Year-to-date, the worst-performing markets still include the Stoxx 600, European banks, and Italian and German equities (alongside China and Japan). But the story was very different in April, when Spain was up 4%, Italy 3%, and the S&P 500 was flat. For U.S. dollar investors, the results were even better—in fact, Spanish equities ended April in positive territory, year-to-date, against the greenback.

In a world where clear opportunities are few and far between, European stocks could well be a source of compelling long-term value—and markets may now be recognizing some of that value.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/neuberger-berman/articles/markets/051816/europe-behind-headlines.asp