原油库存引人担忧 原油价格持续低迷

亚洲交易时间周四早间，原油价格再度下跌，因为供应中断的问题逐渐解决，供应过剩的担忧再度出现。

纽约商品交易所，七月交付的轻质低硫原油期货的成交价为每桶47.92美元，下降了0.16美元。伦敦 IEC 期货交易所，七月交付的布伦特原油跌至每桶48.14美元。

在过去的几期原油中，原油价格持续低迷，因为加拿大和非洲的供应中断问题已逐渐解决。加拿大野火尚未完全熄灭，政府已下达了强制撤离的命令，并允许森科能源公司恢复了两种主要油砂的制造。

利比亚的石油出口也在逐渐恢复。政治动乱导致哈里盖港口关闭了两个多星期，动乱结束后，政府将运出66万桶原油。

而法国石油工人的罢工潮可能会对石油供应产生一些影响。费时能源集团表示，在八家炼油厂中，有六家出现了供应中断，这种情况可能会持续72个小时至一周。

费时能源集团还表示：“如果罢工行动继续进行，法国炼油厂的产量将急剧减少。这样一来，法国境内受损严重的地区将会增加石油产品的进口量，但原油的进口量不会增加。”

虽然加拿大野火和法国工人罢工会影响市场的供应平衡，但是同石油输出国持续增长的产量相比，这些影响只是暂时的。

随着 OPEC 产量的持续增加，分析家们希望非卡塔尔地区的制造商来解决供应过剩的问题。

伯恩斯坦公司高级分析家 Neil Beveridge 希望在下一季度之前，原油市场能够转为供不应求，他希望非 OPEC 地区的产量降至每天5650万桶，因为石油需求将由每天120万桶增至140万桶。

除此之外，新型石油和天然气的开采量正在逐渐减少，这也有助于价格的增长。HIS 调查公司的结果显示，2015年石油和天然气的开采量是64年以来的最低水平，因为油价过低，能源公司纷纷减少勘探量。

纽约商品交易所，六月交付的新配方汽油合约的成交价为每加仑1.6422美元，下跌了34个点。而六月交付的柴油价格为1.4760美元，下跌了15个点。

ICE 六月交付的汽油的成交价为每吨438.25美元，较周一下跌了0.5美元。 

Oil prices stay in the doldrums on supply growth concerns

Crude-oil prices were lower in early Asian trade Tuesday, weighed down by concerns of a growing global supply as outages around the world are winding down.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in JulyCLN6, -0.48%  traded at $47.92 a barrel, down $0.16 in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude LCON6, -0.60%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.21 to $48.14 a barrel.

Oil prices have been in the doldrums in the last few sessions on signs that supply disruptions in Canada and Africa are coming to an end. In Canada, while the wildfires aren’t yet completely contained, the authorities have lifted the mandatory evacuation order, allowing Suncor Energy Inc. to resume operations in two major oil-sands production complexes.

Oil exports from Libya are also improving. The country is expected to release a 660,000-barrel cargo after political unrest shuttered the port of Marsa al-Hariga for more than two weeks.

However, the ongoing strike by French oil workers might dent global supply. According to energy consultant FGE, the strike could mean that production outages at six of the country’s eight refineries could last for 72 hours to a week.

“If the strike turns out to be prolonged, with French refinery runs severely reduced, it may lead to higher products imports into the most-affected regions of France, but lower imports of crude,” said FGE.

But while Canadian wildfires and the French strike will affect the market balance, they are only “passing influence” compared with the persistent uptrend in production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst.

As OPEC ramps up production, analysts are counting on non-cartel players to help erode the glut.

“Every indication we have is that the June 2 OPEC summit in Vienna will leave the status quo in place, with Iran still ramping production higher, Saudi Arabia determined to continue competing for market share, and OPEC as a whole left without even a nominal overall production target,” he added.

“It would leave open the possibility that a further increase in OPEC total production will further postpone the anticipated rebalancing of the global market,” said Evans.

Neil Beveridge, senior analyst at Bernstein Research, expects the oil markets to shift into deficit by next quarter as non-OPEC production declines by 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels to 56.5 million barrels a day this year — lower than the 57 million barrels a day forecast by the International Energy Agency.

“We expect oil markets to shift from oversupply to deficit by the third quarter of 2016 as demand continues to grow at 1.2 to 1.4 million barrels a day and non-OPEC supply declines accelerate,” he said.

Moreover, waning volume of new oil and gas discoveries is also likely to prop up prices. According to research firm IHS, oil and gas volumes discovered in 2015 were the lowest in 64 years as energy companies pull back from exploration amid low prices.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for June RBM6, -0.24%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — -fell 34 points to $1.6422 a gallon, while June diesel traded at $1.4760, 15 points lower.

ICE gasoil for June changed hands at $438.25 a metric ton, down $0.50 from Monday’s settlement.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-stay-in-the-doldrums-on-supply-growth-concerns-2016-05-24